Pig prices are stagnant and fluctuating weakly. This is the overall trend of pig prices in the first half of August.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on August 15, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 29.25 yuan/kg.
And half a month ago, on August 1, it was 29.32 yuan/kg.
Wang Zhong, chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, believes that it is mainly affected by sluggish consumption, and the high temperature in the south has also suppressed demand.
Xu Hongzhi, a senior researcher at Brick Consulting, believes that this is related to the rapid rise in pig prices in the previous period (from the end of June to the beginning of July), which has overdrawn the price increase space and the market needs time to digest.
According to data released by the China Feed Industry Association, in July this year, the national pig feed production was 9.83 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%.
The cumulative output from January to July was 70.14 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%.
Due to the high correlation between swine feed sales and industry inventory, swine feed production declined, indicating a reduction in hog inventory.
Under such circumstances, consumption has become an important variable affecting the price of pigs.
After the beginning of autumn, as the temperature in many parts of the country began to drop, coupled with the short-term school opening and Mid-Autumn Festival stocking, etc., there was a marginal boost to demand in August, which is expected to drive the price of pigs to rise again.
In the longer term, demand has improved seasonally in the second half of the year.
The industry expects that the consumer side will recover in the second half of the year, and subsequent repairs on the consumer side will support the price of pigs to remain strong.
Xu Hongzhi said that compared with the second quarter, the commercial fattening pigs that can be provided in the market from August to September are gradually reduced. In addition, the demand is gradually improving, and the trend of pig prices is still bullish.
However, due to widespread speculation in the market, it is necessary to be alert to the impact of secondary fattening and slaughtering on the supply rhythm of live pigs.