Entering the middle and late August, A-shares welcome the intensive disclosure period of the mid-term report. How will the market situation be interpreted?

　　The Paper has collected the opinions of 10 securities companies. Most of them believe that "fluctuation" is still the key word of the current market conditions.

On the one hand, the fierce game of stock funds will continue.

On the other hand, fundamental uncertainty may affect risk appetite.

　　CITIC Securities pointed out that next, the market will be at a critical point from "finding a new balance" to "achieving a weak balance".

Among them, the size differentiation in this round of the track will be close to the critical point, and the high and low differentiation between industries will also reach the critical point of rebalancing. The fierce game of stock funds will continue, and the market volatility will still be large.

　　CICC also stated that uncertain factors such as the downturn in overseas economic cycles will still restrict the effectiveness of the "steady growth" policy, and uncertainty in fundamentals may affect risk appetite.

Therefore, the market may remain volatile in the short term and lack the characteristics of the main line, and may remain for some time.

　　However, CICC emphasized that although the transmission of the policy to the fundamentals is expected to be delayed, it is expected to gradually take effect in the future, and combined with the current market valuation once again has a mid-line value, it is not appropriate to be pessimistic about the medium-term market.

　　In terms of allocation, growth stocks are still favored by many institutions.

　　Among them, China Securities Investment Securities clearly pointed out that with the release of risk factors, the market has completed a shock correction and returned to the anchor of the fundamentals, and growth is still the main line.

At the same time, considering the macroeconomic, policy and industrial environment, the predominance of small caps in the boom is still expected to be a medium-term feature.

　　Haitong Securities also believes that from the perspective of the comparison of growth value styles, the trend of dominant growth may continue in the future.

In the industry, continue to be optimistic about the growth of new energy and other high prosperity.

　　However, CICC reminded investors that after the recent continuous rebound in growth style, the price/performance ratio is weakening, and subsequent fluctuations may begin to increase.

　　CITIC Securities: Market volatility may still be large

　　Looking ahead, the market will be at a critical point from "finding a new balance" to "achieving a weak balance". After the market adjusts its expectations for the slope of economic repair, the intensity of policy easing, and the pace of US dollar tightening, a weak balance will gradually form.

　　At the same time, the fierce game of stock funds will continue, the market volatility will still be large, the size differentiation within the current round of the track will be close to the critical point, and the high and low differentiation between industries will also reach the critical point of rebalancing.

　　Specifically, first of all, it is expected that the July data will make it clear that the slope of the domestic economic recovery is more gentle, and the catalytic fundamentals are expected to reach a weak balance.

Second, the monetary policy is strong, and the real estate bailout is gradual. After the policy easing is expected to be revised down, it will reach a weak balance.

　　Thirdly, the recent divergence and convergence of economic trends and monetary policies between China and the United States, and the rapid adjustment of foreign capital allocation, will also achieve a weak balance.

　　Finally, the recent incremental capital in the market is limited, the game of stock capital adjustment is still fierce, and the market will remain in a state of high volatility. Judging from investor behavior, the degree of valuation differentiation and the level of transaction enthusiasm, the size differentiation within this round of the track and the inter-industry The differentiation of high and low will also reach the critical point of rebalancing.

　　In terms of allocation, it is recommended that investors adhere to a balanced allocation of growth manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and consumption.

　　CICC: Short-term volatility and lack of main line

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, factors such as repeated local epidemics in China, sluggish real estate risk disposal and sales, downturn in overseas economic cycles and uncertainty in regional situations will still restrict the effectiveness of the "steady growth" policy. Uncertainty in fundamentals may affect risks. preference.

Therefore, the market may remain volatile in the short term and lack the characteristics of the main line, and may remain for some time.

　　However, combined with the current monetary and fiscal policies, especially the overweight of real estate support policies in some regions, it is expected that the transmission of policies to the fundamentals is expected to take effect gradually in the future. In the medium term, the market should not be pessimistic, "stable" and then "advance".

　　In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to policy support areas.

Specifically, it can focus on areas with low valuations, low macro-correlation, or moderate prosperity and policy support.

　　Among them, after the recent continuous rebound in growth style, the price/performance ratio is weakening, and subsequent fluctuations may begin to increase.

As upstream prices have fallen sharply, we have gradually begun to pay attention to the possible restoration of the mid- and downstream industries. The opportunity to switch from a strategic style to growth requires attention to the progress of overseas inflation and steady growth in China.

　　In addition, as the period of intensive disclosure of the interim report is approaching, investors can pay attention to the industries whose interim report performance may exceed expectations.

　　CITIC Construction Investment Securities: Growth is still the main line

　　Looking ahead, there is still a time window for the market.

With the release of risk factors, the market has completed a shock correction and returned to the anchor of fundamentals. The fundamental trend in the second half of this year is weaker than that in the second half of 2020, and growth is still the main line.

　　However, there may be signs of overheating at the transaction level in some non-prosperous medium and small caps in the short term, but considering the macro, policy and industrial environment, the dominance of small and medium caps in the prosperous market is still expected to be a medium-term feature.

　　In terms of industries, investors are advised to focus on photovoltaics, military industry, energy storage, new energy vehicles, wind power, gold, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and medicine.

　　Guotai Junan Securities: Range-bound

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, the revision of investors' expectations for the economy, policies, and liquidity will turn the Shanghai Composite Index from a rebound to a range-bound volatility.

　　A few days ago, the financial data for July just disclosed showed that the momentum of credit expansion slowed down significantly after the pulse from May to June, and the medium- and long-term loans to residents and enterprises decreased significantly year-on-year. Although the market had already expected the poor credit data in July, However, the sluggish structural data shows that in the medium-term dimension, if there is a lack of a strong broad credit carrier, it will be difficult for investors to systematically increase their expectations for the aggregate economic sector.

　　However, although risk appetite is no longer systematically improved, due to the widening divergence of investors' expectations for the economy, especially the old economy and the new economy, risk appetite has moved to two ends, that is, optimists are more optimistic about the new economy, while pessimists are more optimistic about the old economy. more pessimistic.

The volatility of the Shanghai Composite Index does not mean the disappearance of the market's profit-making effect, the focus is still on the structure.

　　In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to two major themes.

First, in the context of transformation, technologies such as energy transformation and independent controllability create growth stocks.

The second is the traditional track leader whose competitive advantage has expanded under the stock economy and its stock price has been fully adjusted.

　　Haitong Securities: Growth style is expected to continue

　　Inside the growth style cycle there is a rotation between the big and the small.

From July to December 2021 and since July 2022, the growth of small caps has significantly outperformed the growth of large caps.

Looking back at the history of A-shares, the differentiation of small and large caps in this growth is similar to that in 2014.

　　From the perspective of fundamentals, in 2014, the growth of the large market was rotated to the growth of the small market, mainly due to the phased slowdown of the growth rate of the growth sector.

In addition to the growth stock market in 2014, Baijiu in 2021 is also a typical case of rotation from the large market to the small market.

The overall trend of industry fundamentals has slowed down and the cost performance of leading companies has been insufficient, which will jointly promote the relative strength of the liquor industry in 2021.

Comparing the growth in 2014 and the liquor in 2021, there are also fundamental changes behind this round of growth and the differentiation of small and medium-sized companies.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, from the perspective of the comparison of growth value styles, the trend of dominant growth may continue in the future.

From the internal point of view of growth, the relative strength of small and large caps in the future depends on whether the performance of growth can achieve rapid growth again.

Specific to the industry configuration, continue to be optimistic about the growth of high prosperity, such as new energy.

In addition, you can also pay attention to the TMT sector during growth.

　　GF Securities: Small-cap stocks still to be verified

　　Since the rebound of A-shares in early May, the growth style and the small-cap style have basically been "equivalent".

After reviewing the past two rounds of small-cap stocks (2007-2011 and 2013-2015), six major driving factors of small-cap stocks can be summarized: economic cycle, policy cycle, liquidity, industry cycle, M&A cycle, investors structure.

　　At present, the three driving factors have been satisfied: in terms of the economic cycle, the small-cap stock market generally occurs after the economy has dropped significantly. The epidemic in 2020 will lead to a downturn in the economy, and the "market value sinking" small-cap stock market will start in 2021.

In terms of policy cycle, the "dual carbon" new energy and "specialized features" policies have been implemented successively, which will support small, medium and micro technology stocks.

In terms of liquidity, a new round of “RRR cut and interest rate cuts” cycle will be launched in 2021.

However, there are still 3 major drivers for small-cap stocks to be verified.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, it is recommended to seize investment opportunities in growth stocks and local diffusion in combination with the performance of the interim report, the resilience of the export chain and the driving force of the downward discount rate.

In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to pay attention to food and beverages, home appliances, wholesale and retail social services that benefit from post-epidemic recovery and PPI-CPI transmission, as well as mid-year report performance verification, vehicles (including new energy vehicles) with good economic trends, photovoltaic equipment, energy storage, Semiconductors, coal.

In addition, we can pay attention to restrictive policies and turn to Internet media, innovative drugs, and real estate leaders with loose margins.

　　China Merchants Securities: There is no need to be overly pessimistic about social financing in July

　　Social financing in July was significantly lower than market expectations.

In fact, under the influence of the epidemic and policy expectations this year, social financing has shown a one-month high and one-month low compared to expectations.

When the data was first released, although the market reaction was extreme, the key to affecting the market performance in the next month was the market's expectations for social financing in the next month.

　　On the whole, the fiscal and monetary policies set by the Politburo meeting on July 28 are still expanding; the low social financing in July has increased the pressure for the best results in the second half of the year, which may force more policy efforts. , and may also lead to an increase in the expected increase in the follow-up social integration.

Therefore, there is no need for an overly pessimistic reaction to the lower-than-expected social financing in July. It is recommended to pay attention to the possibility of a recovery in the growth rate of financing demand brought about by subsequent infrastructure construction, manufacturing investment and guaranteed delivery of buildings.

　　At present, the economic environment is a typical combination of "strong liquidity, low social financing, bottoming out profits", which is conducive to the performance of "new locomotives" (new energy, smart vehicles, general machinery).

However, with the increase in the concentration of trading and shareholding, the market has evolved from beta to differentiation, and the intensification of rotation has led to more difficult operations.

　　In the future, the possibility of social financing recovery exceeding expectations still exists.

If the economy moves towards a stable growth path similar to important years, it will be more conducive to the performance of "silver houses" (banks, real estate, home appliances, home furnishing, building materials), and the A-share style will achieve a switch from small-cap growth to large-cap value. .

　　Essence Securities: Market liquidity logic has been further consolidated

　　After experiencing a sharp rebound in social financing data in June, the monthly increase of social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, which is indeed low.

Excluding seasonal factors, it is also lower than the market had expected.

In particular, structurally, the medium- and long-term demand of residents and the willingness to expand the balance sheet of enterprises are sluggish, reflecting the fact that the recovery of macro fundamentals is still weak.

　　In this environment, how to understand the impact of the expected repetition on the A-share market?

On the one hand, it is to see whether there is a significant downward force breakdown at the numerator end again to support the denominator end;

Overall, the current market liquidity logic has been further consolidated.

Next, the economy does not rule out the possibility of short-term unexpected repairs, and the liquidity environment may be better than expected.

　　As the intensive disclosure period of the interim report approaches, the market is paying more attention to performance verification and re-evaluation.

From the perspective of current fundamentals, the most worthy of marginal attention is post-epidemic demand recovery and reduced cost impact, such as auto parts, motors, agrochemicals, beer, express delivery, ophthalmology, wind power, and small household appliances.

　　Caitong Securities: Small and medium-sized growth is still expected to continue to dominate

　　The economic recovery has been twists and turns, data verification has been repeated, and the market is in a period of shock.

Rising domestic inflation is difficult to restrain monetary policy, and it is difficult to tighten liquidity.

Overseas interest rate hikes are expected to slow down. Under the environment of "external tightness and internal relaxation", small and medium-sized growth represented by China Securities 2000 and CSI 1000 are expected to continue to dominate. It is recommended to pay attention to Xinchuang, new energy +, robots, XR electronic hardware, etc. direction.

　　The low-valued blue chips represented by SSE 50 and CSI 300 and the direction of economic recovery have also entered a better cost-effective allocation range, and can be allocated and bought slowly to accumulate cheap chips at the bottom.

At the current point in time, the perspective should be "forward-looking" rather than "backward-looking". The market is expected to change from "not believing in recovery" to "at least believing in weak recovery". Looking forward to the next 6 months, it is expected to obtain better absolute and relative returns.

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, we can also pay attention to the major consumer core assets of economic recovery, such as consumer medical care, liquor, social services, medical beauty cosmetics, home appliances, etc., as well as water conservancy, urban utility corridors, highways and other directions.

　　Huaxi Securities: Structural shocks dominate

　　Looking forward to the market outlook, as the domestic economy is in the critical window of stabilization and recovery in the third quarter, the fall in social financing in July has once again strengthened the current pattern of "weak economic recovery + loose funds", which will help consolidate the bottom range of A shares.

　　However, during the intensive disclosure period of financial reports in late August, the track stocks are facing performance tests, and A-shares will show more "structural shocks".

　　In terms of allocation, in the medium and long term, the asset allocation shortage exists objectively, and the environment with sufficient liquidity is conducive to supporting the valuation of A-shares.

　　In terms of industry, investors are advised to pay attention to two aspects: First, high-prosperity sectors that benefit from key support from national policies, such as new energy and new energy vehicles.

The second is to benefit from the epidemic prevention policies in the second half of the year or the continuous optimization of optional consumer goods, such as food and beverages.

　　The Paper reporter Tian Zhongfang and Sun Yan