China News Service, August 15th (Zhongxin Finance and Economics Zuo Yukun) "The sales prices of commercial housing in first-tier cities rose slightly in July, and second- and third-tier cities showed a downward trend overall." On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the July 2022 report. Statistics on the changes in the sales price of commercial residential buildings in the month show that the current property market is still in differentiation.

　　In July, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, 40 and 51 cities saw a month-on-month decrease in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing, an increase of 2 and 3 respectively from the previous month.

The housing price index is under pressure to continue to cool down, and it is urgent for local governments to actively introduce policies to ensure market recovery.

The picture shows a real estate in Huishan District, Wuxi City.

(Data map) Photo by Sun Quan

First-tier cities are still "leaders"

　　"The overall market is in a state of slow recovery, and the effect of policies released in various regions is still differentiated. From a regional perspective, the frequency of policy relaxation in many hot cities in the Yangtze River Delta, the Greater Bay Area and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has accelerated, which has a more obvious effect on increasing market popularity. ." Zhang Bo, director of the branch of 58 Anju Room Industry Research Institute, pointed out.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 0.3% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the sales price of second-hand housing rose by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.

　　"The prices of new houses and second-hand houses in first-tier cities both rose month-on-month, and the price of second-hand houses increased month-on-month compared with the previous month." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that the resilience of first-tier cities is mainly due to the strong support of housing demand.

　　Zhang Bo pointed out that corresponding to the overall price increase, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen remained more cautious in terms of policy relaxation in July, which is directly related to the stable recovery of the market. The performance of the market is remarkable.

　　"From the point of view of new houses, the month-on-month increase in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou is more obvious, and both the north and the south are up 0.5%. This price change has a certain relationship with the market supply structure. Among the second-hand houses, Shanghai's monthly increase of 0.8% is the most obvious, which also shows that after the epidemic The rhythm of rapid market recovery continues." Zhang Bo said.

The sales price index of new commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Second-tier cities continue to differentiate

　　"Comparatively speaking, housing demand in most weak second- and third-tier cities is relatively weak. In July, housing prices in second- and third-tier cities showed a downward trend as a whole, and second-hand housing prices in second-tier cities fell more month-on-month than last month." Xu Xiaole said.

　　According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in second-tier cities was flat from a month-on-month increase of 0.1%; the sales price of second-hand housing fell by 0.2% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in third-tier cities both fell by 0.3% month-on-month, the same rate of decline as the previous month.

　　"Cities such as Chengdu, Hangzhou and Xi'an performed better. This also shows that some key second-tier cities have performed better in the current property market recovery process. However, other cities are generally under greater market pressure, including Lanzhou and Nanning. The property market is weak. At the same time, third- and fourth-tier cities such as Anqing in Beihai are also obviously weak.” said Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute.

　　This also reflects a major feature of the current second- and third-tier real estate market - the differentiation continues.

Zhang Bo pointed out that from the perspective of market differentiation, the performance of the new front-line is more obvious than that of the third- and fourth-tier. At the same time, from the rhythm of the loosening of the new front-line policies, most of them tend to relax in steps, especially the adjustment of purchase restrictions and down payment ratios. more conservative.

　　The performance of the Chengdu property market in July was still bright.

Data show that in July, the price of new houses in Chengdu ranked first in the country in month-on-month growth.

In Chengdu, new houses and second-hand houses rose by 1% and 1.3% respectively in a single month, showing that the release of policies in the local area is more powerful.

Zhang Bo predicts that the increase in popularity of hot second-tier cities will become the second force for the continued recovery of the market.

The sales price index of second-hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in July 2022.

Screenshot from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics

Cooling continues, how to fix it?

　　On the same day, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national real estate development investment and sales data from January to July 2022. From January to July, the sales area of ​​commercial housing was 781.78 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.1%, of which the residential sales area decreased by 27.1%.

The sales of commercial housing was 7,576.3 billion yuan, down 28.8%, of which the sales of residential buildings fell by 31.4%.

　　"This reflects the phased cooling of the new housing market in July." Xu Xiaole pointed out that in July, the sales area of ​​commercial housing and commercial housing across the country fell by more than 45% month-on-month, and sales fell by more than 40% month-on-month.

Cumulatively, from January to July, the cumulative year-on-year decline in the sales area and sales of new houses has expanded compared with the previous month.

　　Xu Xiaole believes that the short-term sales decline in the new housing market is due to the fact that some urban off-plan housing projects were suspended in July and the owners stopped lending, which made buyers more wait-and-see, and the pace of entry into the market slowed down; , market sales fell seasonally.

　　From the perspective of supply, the investment and construction of real estate enterprises have indeed declined.

In July, the investment in commercial housing development and the newly started area both fell by more than 30% month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline from January to July was larger than that of the previous month.

The decline in sales receipts in July superimposed that that month was the peak of debt repayment for most housing companies, and housing companies were less motivated to start investing.

　　Chen Wenjing, market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute, believes that in the short term, relevant measures to "guarantee the delivery of buildings" in various places have been continuously implemented, and the resumption of project work may improve, and real estate development investment is expected to be marginally repaired.

The financial pressure of enterprises is superimposed and the sales recovery is not obvious, and the strength and willingness of enterprises to start construction may still be weak.

　　"Therefore, repairing market expectations is the key." Xu Xiaole said that since August, local housing support policies have continued to increase. According to media reports, strong second-tier cities such as Nanjing and Suzhou have reduced down payments.

Under the looser credit and control policies, the orderly resumption of work and delivery of new housing projects, and speeding up the risk resolution of housing enterprises can restore market expectations.

　　At the same time, the central bank's MLF unexpectedly reduced the volume and lowered the price. Many analysts believe that another reduction in mortgage interest rates may be expected, or it may bring a certain boost to the expectations of the real estate market.

On August 15, the central bank announced that the winning bid rates for the medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and the open market reverse repurchase operation both fell by 10 basis points.

　　"From the perspective of the market, it will take some time to restore market confidence in the short term, and the market adjustment situation will be difficult to change. The sales volume of commercial housing across the country may still have a large year-on-year decline." Chen Wenjing said.

　　Zhang Bo also pointed out that this round of recovery period is too long, and it is still necessary to release more market potential in the future to boost the property market.

(Finish)

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