The social financing and credit data released by the central bank on Friday both fell. Among them, household loans continued to increase by 284.2 billion yuan year-on-year. In addition to the medium and long-term loans that have been due to the downturn in the property market this year, short-term household loans have also recovered after 2 months. fall back.
According to Liang Fengjie and Qiu Guanhua, banking analysts at Zheshang Securities, the core reasons for the weaker-than-expected credit data in July are that on the one hand, the impulse in June overdrafted the demand for credit in July; , suppressing consumer demand and confidence in home purchases.
In fact, this phenomenon is not only a phenomenon at the level of macro data, but is reflected in every individual, and everyone's willingness to save continues to rise, which makes many bank credit managers very "anxious".
Recently, many people reported to reporters that the telephone "marketing" of banks and some outsourcing intermediaries has increased again. They either encourage customers to choose to repay their credit cards in installments, or issue invitations to increase the limit, and they also promote a kind of "cost-effective than ordinary consumer loans" "Credit Loan.
But according to credit managers, a large percentage of people borrowed money to pay off their mortgages early.
Residents dare not spend money, and banks are in a hurry
As an office worker in Beipiao, Xiaoyu was recently "targeted" by banks and some third-party credit intermediaries. He received various calls every three days, and he did not know where he "exposed" his personal information.
"Although we know that you are fully capable of repaying your credit card on time, because you have never used instalment repayment and the amount has accumulated to XX million, we contacted you to let you know that we can help you repay this credit card instalment. The amount has been postponed to next month..." Xiaoyu recalled that recently, a customer service staff of China Merchants Bank encouraged him to choose installment repayment, on the grounds that it would increase the interaction with the bank, participate more in the bank's preferential activities in the future, and even help to increase the credit limit, etc.
But this comes at the cost of instalment fees.
Although Xiaoyu doesn't understand why he needs to make such a cost-increasing option, for banks and their loan officers, the handling fee brought by instalments is an important income and performance.
More calls were from people who claimed to be bank outsourcing agencies. At first, they claimed to be employees of the credit center of a certain bank. Later, Xiaoyu learned that they were from different outsourcing companies, but the common purpose was to "sell" him a kind of A credit loan specially designed for office workers, that is, as long as they have normal salary flow and social security records, they can apply for a loan of up to 3 million yuan on demand.
Similar to Xiaoyu, a number of residents in the Beijing area reported to reporters that they have frequently received similar calls recently.
As one of the ways for relevant personnel to complete their performance, these calls were originally not new, but according to industry analysts, the recent increase in the frequency of calls may be related to the increased business pressure.
A credit person from an outsourcing agency revealed to Xiaoyu that their main task is to collect more loan customer information to the bank, and the two parties signed a strict "gambling agreement". When a bank account manager is stressed, it will also be obviously passed on to the outsourcer. body.
Since the beginning of this year, residents' willingness to save deposits has continued to rise, while their willingness to invest has declined marginally.
In the second quarter, the central bank’s depositors survey showed that 58.3% of the residents preferred “more savings”, an increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, and 17.9% of residents preferred “more investment”, a decrease of 3.7% from the previous quarter. percent.
The latest financial data disclosed by the central bank on August 12 showed that new social financing in July hit a new low in nearly six years, and credit growth also shrank to a new low, both of which fell significantly beyond market expectations.
Specifically, the new social financing in July was 756.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 319.1 billion yuan year-on-year.
Looking at the credit data alone, the new RMB loans in July were 679 billion yuan, a decrease of 401 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. Resident loans increased by 121.7 billion yuan in July, of which short-term loans to residents decreased by 26.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.4 billion year-on-year. Yuan, which has increased year-on-year for two consecutive months; medium and long-term loans, which mainly reflect mortgage demand, increased by 148.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 268.1 billion yuan from the previous month, and a decrease of 248.8 billion yuan from the same period last year.
Buying a house and spending, when will it recover
Liang Fengjie and Qiu Guanhua believe that the core reasons for the weaker-than-expected credit data in July are that on the one hand, the impulse in June overdrafted the demand for credit in July; .
Xiong Yuan, chief economist of Guosheng Securities, also said that the year-on-year decrease in residents' short-term loans again indicates that under the influence of factors such as the epidemic, residents' consumption has weakened again; the decline in residential mortgage loans in July is consistent with the real estate sales data.
According to CRIC’s statistics, the transaction area of the 30 monitored cities in July was 17.45 million square meters, a decrease of 16% from the previous month and a decrease of 33% from the same period last year. Although the rate of decrease tends to narrow slightly, the accumulated year-on-year decrease in the first seven months still reached 45%. %.
During this period, the differentiation between different cities is more obvious. While the transaction volume in first-tier cities is gradually increasing, the popularity of second- and third-tier cities that were stimulated by city-specific policies in the early stage has declined, and only a few cities have maintained their previous popularity.
In addition to the sluggish transaction caused by changes in the industry environment in the previous period, there has been a joint shutdown of property owners of unfinished buildings across the country since July, which may further suppress the demand for home purchases with rigid or improved demand.
At the same time, under the background of falling mortgage interest rates and declining wealth management income, more and more home buyers choose to repay their mortgages in advance, especially in some second- and lower-tier cities, this tendency is more obvious.
An account manager of a bank in Suzhou said that at present, early repayment needs to be reserved at least two months in advance, because the quota is limited and it is necessary to wait in line.
Against this background, the Bank of Communications recently adjusted its rules for the collection of liquidated damages for early repayment, which once caused a lot of controversy.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of the Zhongguancun Internet Finance Research Institute, believes that this adjustment is an attempt to curb the early repayment behavior of customers by collecting "compensation money", and secondly, to increase intermediate business income by collecting "compensation money".
In addition to using the money originally planned to buy a second home, some homebuyers choose to "borrow the new and repay the old", that is, use a consumer loan, business loan or the aforementioned credit loan with a lower interest rate to replace the higher interest rate. high mortgage.
Xiaoyu calculated an account for this. Whether it was repaying the loan in advance or buying a new house, according to the current mortgage interest rate of 5% for the first house and 5.5% for the second house in Beijing, he chose the previous credit loan (according to the credit staff, the interest rate was low during the event period). To 3.85%) is obviously more cost-effective, and this type of loan can be loaned to 500,000 to 600,000 yuan with a monthly salary of 5,000 yuan (credit investigation and other aspects meet the conditions), and the loan can be up to 3 to 5 years, with early repayment No penalty fee.
The credit officer who sells credit loans to Xiaoyu is also not shy, claiming that many customers borrow money to buy a house or repay the loan, but considering that the bank will track the purpose of the loan, it is recommended to enter the property market after 1-2 months of borrowing.
This also means that even if the credit officers of this part of the bank or the outsourcing institution complete the loan KPI, this part of the funds is not used for new consumption or investment.
To change the status quo of insufficient effective credit demand, it is still necessary to enhance residents' confidence in consumption and home purchases.
Liang Fengjie and Qiu Guanhua believe that the current credit situation is similar to that in the second quarter of this year, and may repeat the situation of extremely weak first month, stable second month, and impulse third month, and the supporting factors for credit from August to September will be the main factors. It comes from the implementation of the stock policy and the effect of the real estate stimulus policy.
At present, in addition to the second-, third- and fourth-tier cities that have frequently introduced new property market policies, first-tier cities have also begun to loosen their ties under the general tone of housing and housing. After the guide price of second-hand housing in Shanghai was loosened, Beijing also opened a policy opening for three pilot projects earlier this month.
On August 12, news of the reduction of the down payment ratio for a second home came out in several key cities in Jiangsu such as Nanjing and Suzhou, and the industry's expectations for real estate bailouts are still heating up.