International oil prices return to the level of six months ago, experts say it is conducive to the steady development of China's economy

　　Our reporter Wang Ning

　　Since the beginning of this year, the trend of international oil prices can be described as twists and turns.

After the previous two waves of ups and downs, today's international oil prices have returned to fluctuating around $90/barrel before March this year.

　　In the opinion of analysts, on the one hand, the expectation of weak economic recovery in overseas markets, coupled with the expected growth in crude oil supply, will restrain the rise of oil prices to a certain extent; on the other hand, the current situation of high inflation has formed a positive support for oil prices.

In such a complex environment, the current international oil prices are in a dilemma.

　　However, a number of analysts told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the low international oil price will help China's manufacturing industry to reduce costs and improve profit margins, and it will also have a positive stimulating effect on demand for travel and consumption.

　　International oil prices return to the level of six months ago

　　In early March this year, the price of WTI crude oil rose rapidly from below US$90/barrel to US$110.15/barrel in one fell swoop, and then quickly fell back to around US$85/barrel, completing a wave of ups and downs within half a month.

Then, the price of WTI crude oil rose all the way, until it hit a record high of $118.08 per barrel on June 8.

Since then, the price of WTI crude oil has started to turn downward, falling below the $90/barrel mark again after August, returning to the level around February 15.

　　"The long-short game of international oil prices is still going on. The main contradiction at present is that, on the one hand, the European energy supply crisis caused by the geopolitical situation has formed support for international oil prices; on the other hand, investors have expressed concerns about the weak overseas economic recovery, which will As a result, the demand side is far less than expected." Liu Jiao, a researcher at the Energy and Chemical Department of the Huishang Futures Research Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the current international oil price rebound has greater resistance.

In addition, in the context of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and central banks in many countries, the tightening of monetary policies in various countries may accelerate, and the signs of global economic slowdown are becoming more and more obvious.

　　"Securities Daily" reporter learned that the recent decline in international macroeconomic data has adjusted the market's judgment on the intensity of interest rate hikes.

Some analysts believe that based on the decline in US macroeconomic data, the Fed's efforts to curb inflation may slow down, and the intensity of interest rate hikes may be less than previously expected, which is bound to have a greater impact on international oil prices.

　　Zhang Xiao, an analyst in the energy and chemical industry of Guoyuan Futures, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the CPI data in the United States fell in July, and the market's worries about the continued rise of U.S. inflation data have slowed down. Against the background of a weakening dollar index, crude oil Prices rose slightly.

However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude oil inventories rose more than expected, adding to the market's concerns about crude oil demand.

Correspondingly, OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have shown very different attitudes to the adjustment of crude oil supply and demand recently.

Taking into account the downward pressure on the global economy, OPEC lowered its forecast for crude oil demand in the future; IEA raised its forecast for crude oil demand based on the hot weather in Europe.

At present, the international oil price fluctuates around the US$90/barrel mark, mainly due to the recovery of crude oil demand and the recovery of market risk appetite.

Due to the fact that there are still many uncertainties in the short-term market, it is expected that under the long-short game, the short-term crude oil price may remain in a narrow range.

　　Conducive to the steady recovery of China's economy

　　The price of WTI crude oil futures fluctuated around the $90/barrel mark, reflecting the market's erratic expectations for crude oil demand.

According to Tang Jianlin, a researcher at Jinxin Futures Energy Chemical, with the successive announcements of macroeconomic data from major overseas economies in July, the market's expectations for a global economic recession will continue to ferment, which will lead to concerns about crude oil demand.

In addition, high inflation in the US economy has led to investors' expectations of a sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September, which also made crude oil futures bulls have scruples.

　　Tang Jianlin also said that if the U.S. CPI data in July is lower than market expectations, the Fed's expectation of a sharp interest rate hike will slow down, and the possibility of a soft landing for the U.S. economy will increase accordingly.

Superimposed the recent European energy crisis continued to ferment, the IEA raised its forecast for global crude oil demand, and the bullish confidence in crude oil futures will also recover.

The main reason for the current dominance of international oil prices is the change in crude oil demand expectations. The focus of the short-term crude oil market should return to commodity attributes, and the fluctuation of demand expectations may become the dominant factor affecting crude oil prices.

　　What impact will the low international oil price have on China's economy?

Many analysts believe that the correction of international oil prices is conducive to the steady recovery of China's economy, and will have a positive effect on manufacturing, transportation and consumption.

　　"China, as a major global oil demander, is highly dependent on foreign countries. The decline in international oil prices, on the one hand, can reduce the cost of oil imports. For the domestic petrochemical industry, after the cost is reduced, it can continue to be passed on to downstream end products; On the other hand, domestic travel costs will also be reduced, which will stimulate and drive consumer demand to a certain extent." Liu Jiao believes that under the current expectation of the increase in international crude oil supply, the market is worried that the recovery of major overseas economies will not be as good as expected. It is expected that international oil prices will remain weak in the short term.

　　Zhang Xiao also believes that the decline in international oil prices will reduce import costs, which will have a positive impact on the operating costs of China's economy, which is conducive to the steady development of the domestic economy.

At present, in addition to the linkage between domestic oil prices and international oil prices, the prices of domestic natural gas, coal and other fossil energy have also remained stable.

　　"The pullback in international oil prices will directly drive down domestic PPI, reduce downstream manufacturing costs, and increase corporate profit margins." Tang Jianlin believes that in the short term, the market's expected fluctuations in crude oil demand in the second half of the year will affect the fluctuation of crude oil prices; from the perspective of the middle line From the point of view, with the slowdown of global economic growth, the demand for crude oil may decline, and there is an expectation of an increase in the supply side. It is expected that the center of gravity of crude oil prices will continue to move downward.

(Securities Daily)

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