GDP announced on the 15th = gross domestic product.
It will be clear how much domestic consumption and production have grown in the three months from April to June this year, and how much the Japanese economy has grown.
Looking at the data, it can be seen that consumption of services such as travel and dining out recovered during this period, due to the lifting of priority measures such as epidemic prevention.
"GDP as seen in data", this time we will focus on this service consumption.
This graph shows consumption trends as an index based on credit card usage information.
Looking at the "total consumption" graph, which shows the movement of all expenditures, the level from April to June exceeds the average for the same month for the three years from 2016 to 2018, before the spread of infection.
(Excluded in 2019 due to the consumption tax rate hike)
At this time, the priority measures to prevent the spread of the virus were lifted in March just before, and there were no restrictions on movement for the first time in three years during the long holidays.
As a result, "service consumption" such as transportation, travel, and eating out improved from April to June, and in June, it recovered to the level before COVID-19.
Let's take a closer look at service consumption.
The first is eating out.
Overall sales are on a recovery trend from April to June.
Sales at pubs and izakayas, which had suffered a significant drop in sales due to requests for shortened business hours, are also on a recovery trend, indicating that the number of customers is returning.
Next is travel.
The number of guests staying at domestic hotels and inns is gradually recovering.
In June, compared to the same month in 2019 before corona, it was minus 24.7% overall.
Of these, the number of Japanese overnight guests is -6.5%, which indicates that the number is returning to the level before the spread of infection.
On the other hand, the number of foreign guests still remains at a low level.
Although the acceptance of foreign tourists was resumed from June, it is said that the reason is that it takes time to process visas.
The next graph is from the "Economic Watchers Survey," in which more than 2,000 working people are asked about their feelings about the economy.
The index, which indicates the current state of the economy, has been above 50 for three consecutive months since April, indicating that many people felt that the economy was picking up during this period.
However, in July, the index plummeted to below 50 again.
The rapid spread of the new corona infection seems to have been behind this, and it is beginning to affect recent economic indicators.
For example, let's take a look at the consumption trend survey based on credit card usage information.
Looking at the graph of "total consumption" for the first half of July, the positive range is shrinking.
Of these, the consumption of "travel" and "eating out" has fallen, and it seems that overall consumption has been pushed down.
In addition, the "Consumer Confidence Index", which indicates consumers' willingness to shop, has deteriorated for two consecutive months in June and July.
In addition to the continuing rise in the prices of daily necessities and utility costs, the rapid spread of infections seems to indicate that the future of living is becoming more uncertain.
For this reason, last month, the Cabinet Office changed its basic judgment on consumer sentiment to "weak" and revised it downward for the first time in four months.
In this way, for the three months from April to June, which is the target of the GDP announced this time, service consumption was generally on a recovery trend, but the momentum has faded since July.
The key point in looking at the economy going forward is how the spread of infections and rising prices, which are said to be the factors behind this, will affect consumption.