Author: Wu Simin
On the evening of the 8th, Wang Ping, who returned to his hometown in Heilongjiang with his children after taking root in Yanjiao for several years, saw the news that "Langfang has completely lifted the restrictions on purchases and sales" from the WeChat Moments.
Yanjiao, which belongs to Sanhe City, Langfang City, Hebei Province, is across the river from Tongzhou, Beijing. It is only an hour's drive from Beijing International Trade Center.
For the first time ten years ago, it was decided to build Tongzhou into a "full-fledged urban sub-center" and wake up as a "sleeping city".
Under the multiple advantages, in this "inter-provincial enclave in the coat of a county town and double-teamed by Beijing and Tianjin", the housing price once rose to 34,000 to 40,000 yuan per square meter, attracting many North drifters just in need and investors. Admission.
"But soon, the property market bubble was punctured, and the conceptual benefits began to be overdrawn." Wang Ping told Yicai.com.
In June 2017, the purchase restriction in Langfang was upgraded, and then the transaction scale and average transaction price of the property market dropped rapidly.
At the end of 2019, the new crown epidemic broke out. As a key point in Gyeonggi, people from Yanjiao have many barriers to enter Beijing.
Wang Pings began to realize the fact that "Yanjiao is still the Yanjiao of Hebei after all".
The Yanjiao property market, which was already at a low point, suffered a more serious "confidence crisis".
In June of this year, the epidemic situation in Beijing and Hebei has stabilized, and Yanjiao property market has ushered in several deregulations. The long-prepared Rail Transit Line 22 (Pinggu Line) has also entered the stage of full-scale construction, but Wang Ping chose to do so at this time. "Escape from Yanjiao".
"After 7 years of buying a house, the total assets of the house have depreciated by nearly 2 million yuan from the high point in early 2017, and the epidemic has become the last straw that crushed our family. Three years after the epidemic, I was unemployed for two and a half years, so I had to do odd jobs. During the holidays, I will move my child back to my hometown first, and when the house in Yanjiao improves a little, I will choose to sell it."
stay or leave
stay or leave
On the 9th, the news that "Langfang has completely lifted the purchase and sales restrictions" has attracted widespread attention from the society.
The news comes from the "Six Measures for Supporting the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" "Understanding Card" recently released by the official platform of "Langfang Government Affairs".
According to Article 1 of the measure, the household registration, social security (personal tax) and other restrictive housing purchase conditions that are not suitable for the current real estate market situation are cancelled, and the "three northern counties" (Yanjiao, Dachang, Xianghe) and surrounding counties (cities) of Xiong'an New Area will be cancelled. In key areas such as non-local households, the housing sales restriction period requirement for non-local households will be cancelled.
So far, the "strictest purchase restriction order" in Chinese county towns, which has been in place for more than five years, has been officially cancelled.
According to the purchase restriction policy upgraded by Langfang City in June 2017, in the 3rd district of the main city of Langfang City and 7 counties and cities under its jurisdiction, including Beisan County, the non-local household registration requires a 3-year social security or tax certificate, and the purchase of one set is limited to the local household registration. Limited to two sets.
However, several local intermediaries told reporters that before the official announcement, starting from the end of July last year at the latest, there was no social security requirement for outsiders to buy houses in Beisan County.
"This is no longer news." The real estate manager of a local chain store told reporters that on June 17 this year, the official website of the Langfang Municipal People's Government announced the "Six Policies and Measures to Support the Virtuous Cycle and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" (below referred to as "measures"), where the first item is displayed as "omitted".
At that time, many analysts predicted that this undisclosed measure was related to the loosening of the purchase restriction policy.
And this official announcement is likely to boost market confidence and attract more people who are just in need of Beipiao to buy houses in the Beijing area.
"However, is Yanjiao still attractive to the northern drifters?" Wang Ping asked.
In Wang Ping's view, he can be regarded as a Yanjiao Beipiao who "will not admit defeat" and "struggle to the end".
Seven years ago, children were entering school, and in 2015, Beijing's settlement policy was stricter than the previous two years.
Not in line with Beijing's school-age children's enrollment policy, and not wanting to miss the child's growth period, Wang Ping and his wife decided to move to Yanjiao and purchased a two-bedroom apartment with a total area of about 97 square meters.
At that time, housing prices in Yanjiao were not high.
The unit price of the second-hand house in Wang Ping's picture is about 9,000 yuan.
Gritting their teeth, they collected the full amount.
Afterwards, Wang Ping's lover became a full-time mother in Yanjiao, taking care of the children, while he commuted between Beijing and Hebei every day, selling food in a private company in Beijing during the day, and returning to Yanjiao to reunite with his family at night.
Although it was hard work, the real estate in Yanjiao provided Wang Ping with a sense of stability, and it also made Wang Ping and his wife, who had been drifting in the north for many years, truly feel at home.
They even imagined that when their children grew up, they would replace an improved school district house in Yanjiao, and take root and provide for the elderly there.
After 2017, with the cold environment of the local property market, the local real estate he held dropped from the high point of 35,000 yuan/square meter to 15,000 yuan/square meter.
At the end of 2019, when the new crown epidemic broke out, the company's performance was sluggish, and he was laid off.
After losing a stable source of income, the family of three could only rely on Wang Ping's income from odd jobs and previous savings.
"There are several difficulties in living in Yanjiao: flooding in summer, difficulty in heating in winter, inadequate living facilities, many uncertainties in commuting, and some groups need to pay high prices for household registration." At that time, some of the negative emotions accumulated for a long time had already Began to eat away his "dream of living in Yanjiao".
Even so, Wang Ping still did not give up his plan to live in Yanjiao for a long time.
In March 2021, after the news of Yanjiao's "release of second-hand housing settlement" came out, he once considered settling in Yanjiao.
But starting from the second half of last year, his obsession with retirement in Yanjiao was completely shaken.
First of all, there were problems with the capital chain of some real estate companies around Beijing. Some real estate projects were overdue, suspended, or even unfinished. Even the “sales champion” China Fortune Land Development in the Beijing area in the first half of last year was rumored to explode, and pessimism swept across the country. The Beipiao family in Yanjiao.
Then, at the beginning of this year and in the second quarter, there were two local cluster outbreaks in Beijing, of which the second wave lasted as long as 2 months.
Due to the need for prevention and control, the policy of returning to and from Beijing for commuters around Beijing has been tightened several times.
For Wang Ping, the problem of entering Beijing is not only "6 hours in traffic jam before arriving at the checkpoint" and "being persuaded to return after arriving at the checkpoint".
Due to working odd jobs in Beijing, there is no fixed unit that can issue a work certificate, and he cannot register for a commuter electronic card, and he once lost the qualification to enter Beijing.
"Since the second quarter, our family has basically had zero income."
House seemingly endless rain.
Not long ago, the elderly in Wang Ping's family needed to be hospitalized in their hometown due to illness.
Nursing needs the company of family members, and hospitalization is a huge expense.
In July, while the children were on vacation, Wang Ping's family finally made the decision to "escape Beisan County".
House prices fall back to 7 years ago
House prices fall back to 7 years ago
As a hedge against the further decline in Beidriake's confidence in buying properties in Beisan County under the influence of the epidemic, since 2020, there has been more favorable news on policy and credit.
In May 2020, the Langfang Municipal People's Government issued a notice on the "Opinions on Further Deepening the Reform of the Household Registration System (Trial)", and talents with a college degree or above in the surrounding cities and towns of the capital can apply for Langfang City with relevant academic qualifications, talent green cards, qualification certificates, etc. Resident account.
A number of local intermediaries revealed to reporters that starting from the middle of 2020, Beisan County will actually liberalize the new house purchase restriction policy for foreigners, which provides an opportunity for some developers to "solve" and buyers who just need houses from other places to buy bargains.
Since 2022, the credit policy for foreigners to buy houses in Beisan County has been gradually loosened.
In terms of commercial loans, at present, the down payment ratio of the first home in Beisan County has dropped from 30% to 20%, the minimum interest rate has dropped to 4.25%, and the down payment ratio of the second home has also been reduced from 50% to 30%.
According to the above-mentioned measures introduced by Langfang City in June, the maximum loan amount of the housing provident fund for the first home will be increased for the high-end talents introduced.
In August, the local settlement policy was relaxed again.
When purchasing the first set of high-end talents recruiting talents, executives of enterprises attracting investment and relocating non-capital functions in Beijing, they will be treated according to their local household registration.
Liu Shulei, head of Beipiao (Hebei) Real Estate Co., Ltd., provided reporters with a set of data. Taking Yanjiao as an example, in March last year, the transaction volume of local second-hand housing reached 700 units, the peak monthly transaction volume since the purchase restriction in 2017.
This year, except for the months affected by the epidemic, the average monthly turnover is 700 to 800 units.
"The transaction volume is back, but the house price is still flat." A Xianghe real estate agent said helplessly.
According to the latest statistics from the E-House Research Institute, as of the end of the second quarter, the average price of new houses in Langfang this year fell below 10,000 yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year.
In the Langfang area around Beijing, Yanjiao is the closest to Beijing, and its location advantage is more obvious, and the housing price has always ranked first in the three northern counties.
Even so, according to Liu Shulei, since 2018, local housing prices have fluctuated several times, and compared with before the purchase restriction, they are generally at the bottom.
He recalled that in the past 15 years, the first small peak of housing prices in Yanjiao was in 2013.
At that time, the concept of "Beijing Tongzhou City Sub-center" was put forward not long ago, and the regulation of the overall property market across the country tightened in the previous year, resulting in a backlog of demand.
At the beginning of the year, the opening price of new projects reached 7,500 yuan/square meter, a jump of 2,000 yuan/square meter compared with the opening price at the end of 2012.
During the period from 2013 to the first half of 2017, under the influence of a series of favorable factors, the property market in Yanjiao became very hot, until the second peak occurred before the purchase restriction in 2017.
In 2014, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration plan was officially proposed. By the end of 2015, the average house price in Yanjiao had doubled to 14,000 yuan/square meter.
On September 30, 2016, Beijing introduced strict control measures to limit the down payment ratio. Subsequently, some of the Beijing housing demand spilled over to Yanjiao, superimposed on the loose credit that year. Since the second half of 2016, the median house price in Yanjiao has reached 26,000 yuan. / square meter.
Liu Shulei said that before the purchase restriction in June 2017, the average house price in Yanjiao further rose to 35,000 yuan/square meter.
However, under the "strictest purchase restriction" policy, Yanjiao's house prices were cut in half in just one year.
In 2022, local house prices will stabilize, but overall, they will still fall back to pre-2016 levels.
"Most of the people who buy houses in Beisan County are Beidrifters, and the local people have limited demand for home purchases. However, among the Beidrift groups, there are few groups who give up Beijing's social security in order to buy a house in Beijing. Therefore, after 2017, the local housing market will take a look. The volume and transaction volume have dropped sharply, and the oversupply situation has always been difficult to alleviate." The above-mentioned Xianghe real estate agent said.
The latest research report of the Shell Research Institute shows that as of the beginning of July this year, the urban housing vacancy rate in Langfang reached 19%, second only to Nanchang among the key cities monitored, and higher than the 15% warning line.
"Overall vacancy levels are high, and new development projects may be at risk of overstocking due to difficult sales," the Shell Research Institute said.
Will the Beijing property market recover?
Will the Beijing property market recover?
Li Xiaojiang, former president of China Urban Planning and Design Institute and expert of the Central Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Expert Advisory Committee, said in an interview with China Business News that whether it is to promote the integrated development of the three counties around Beijing and Tongzhou District in Beijing, or to build the Xiong'an New District , the purpose of which is to treat the diseases of Beijing's big cities, to relieve the non-capital functions, and to promote the coordinated development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei.
However, whether this goal can be achieved, and whether the Hebei Beijing Ring District can absorb the population relieved by Beijing's core area, the key lies in whether the population's commuting and commuting needs can be solved.
Compared with the "rising star" Xiong'an, the plan for the integrated development of the three counties around Beijing and Tongzhou District in Beijing was proposed earlier, but the speed of implementation has slowed down for a while.
Wang Ping remembers that in 2015, the year he purchased the house, Beijing Metro Line 22 (Pinggu Line) received the approval for the "Beijing Urban Rail Transit Phase II Construction Plan".
According to the plan, the line starts from the East Bridge in Chaoyang District, Beijing in the west, and ends at Pinggu New Town in the east, connecting key functional areas such as the core area of Beijing CBD, the sub-center of Beijing city, and Yanjiao High-tech Zone in Sanhe City.
In July 2018, Beijing Pinggu District released the performance task disclosure for the second quarter: the Pinggu section of the Pinggu Line has completed the optimization of the route plan, and will be submitted to the municipal government for approval by the Municipal Planning and Land Commission.
This means that the line was temporarily shut down.
Going to school is another major worry for the Beipiao family who bought property in Beisan County.
A mother of Beipiao who bought a local property told Yicai that not only is there a lack of good schools, but even living facilities such as bookstores are scarce resources.
However, since 2019, the "integration" of Langfang Beisan County and Beijing's public resources has begun to accelerate.
In terms of education, in November 2019, the Dachang Campus of Renmin University of China started construction and is expected to be delivered in September 2023.
On March 17, 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission released the "Coordinated Development Plan for Tongzhou District of Beijing and the Three Counties and Cities of Sanhe, Dachang and Xianghe in Hebei Province", which clearly stated that by 2035, basic public services will be basically equalized.
Promote the distribution of high-quality educational resources in Beijing to Tongzhou District and Beisan County.
Encourage the transfer of high-quality educational resources from Beijing to Tongzhou District and Beisan County by means of cooperative school running and establishment of branch campuses.
In terms of transportation, in July 2022, the Beijing Municipal Development and Reform Commission approved the feasibility study report for the Beijing section of Metro Line 22 (Pinggu Line). Completed and opened to traffic.
"The family is waiting for the money. I may not wait until the subway is completed before selling the house in Yanjiao." Wang Ping told reporters, "But after the purchase restriction is released, the certainty of superimposing the benefits of commuting will increase, and maybe the house price in Yanjiao will increase. Get warmer." When the second-hand housing in Yanjiao improves somewhat, he will sell the house.
(At the request of the interviewee, Wang Ping is a pseudonym)