A number of major economic provinces have expressed their positions, going all out to stabilize growth, shouldering the responsibility of a major economic province, striving to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development, and coming up with a number of practical and tough measures to increase efforts to stabilize industry, stimulate consumption, and expand effective invest.
As the "locomotive" of China's economic development, the major economic provinces will take on another heavy responsibility.
The Politburo meeting held a few days ago downplayed the country's annual economic growth target, but proposed that "economically large provinces should bravely lead the way, and qualified provinces should strive to achieve the expected economic and social development goals."
In recent days, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Hunan and other places have expressed their views, going all out to stabilize growth, shoulder the responsibility of an economic province, strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development, and come up with a number of practical measures. We will increase efforts to stabilize industry, stimulate consumption, and expand effective investment.
According to the analysis of many experts, the effects of large economic provinces in structural transformation, system and mechanism reform, and scientific research innovation are beyond the reach of other provinces and cities. They not only directly contribute to GDP, but also influence their core position in the industrial chain. to national production activities.
Seizing the big economic province will also seize the bulk of China's high-quality development.
Economic province plays the leading role
"Economic province" refers to the provinces with high GDP, fiscal revenue and comprehensive development strength.
From the perspective of total GDP in 2021, the top ten provinces are Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Hunan, and Shanghai.
Among them, Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong, the five southeastern coastal provinces and cities, account for more than 1/3 of the country's economic volume, and account for nearly 40% of the fiscal revenue. They contribute nearly 80% of the local government's net transfer to the central government, which is a strong support. State financial resources and central finance transfer payments to the central and western regions.
In the first half of 2022, the GDP of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other provinces still ranks among the top in the country, but in terms of economic growth, these four provinces increased by 2%, 1.6%, 3.6% and 2.5% respectively, only Shandong. The province is above the national average.
This year's government work report proposes that major economic provinces should give full play to their advantages and enhance their leading role in national development.
The Economic Symposium on the Economic Situation of the Main Leaders of the Governments of the Southeast Coastal Provinces held on July 7 re-emphasized that the five provinces and cities along the southeast coast should continue to provoke national development and economic stabilization, and play a major role in safeguarding the country's financial resources.
While doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control, we will further open up the blocking points of the industrial chain and supply chain, promote the return of economic operation to the normal track as soon as possible, and strive to stabilize growth and financial resources.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, told Yicai that my country's economy is currently coming out of the bottom. With the easing of the epidemic and the development of policies, the economy will gradually pick up in the follow-up. At the same time, with the completion of tax rebates, the growth rate of fiscal revenue will also gradually increase. pick up.
However, the triple pressure on the economy and the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure have not been fundamentally alleviated.
Against such a background, grasping key areas and key links is conducive to maintaining the national chess game.
Luo Zhiheng believes that from an economic point of view, the eastern coastal provinces not only directly contribute to GDP, but also affect the production activities of the whole country because of their core position in the industrial chain. Employment of the transferred labor force.
From a financial point of view, only when the economy of the eastern region is stabilized can the finance be stabilized, so as to provide more ammunition for central transfer payments and achieve balanced regional development.
Yang Zhiyong, vice president of the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also believes that the economic province is very important to China's economic stability, both economically and financially.
To ensure the growth of fiscal revenue, it is necessary to stabilize the local economy.
To stabilize the economy, it is necessary to protect the industrial chain and reduce various uncertainties.
Under the constraints of epidemic prevention and control, all localities need to find effective ways to stabilize the economy. The challenges are huge, but there is no other way to go.
They are striving to achieve their annual goals
In recent times, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Hunan and other places have expressed their positions, going all out to stabilize growth, and strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development.
On July 29, the Fujian Provincial Government Party Group Meeting and Theoretical Study Center Group Study Meeting was held to earnestly study and implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and study and implement measures.
The meeting emphasized, "Dare to do good, take the lead, focus on promoting high-quality development, and strive to complete the annual goals and tasks."
On July 30, Shandong Province held the current economic and social development key work scheduling meeting to thoroughly study and implement the spirit of the Central Political Bureau meeting, and study and deploy key work measures.
The meeting proposed to firmly shoulder the responsibility of a major economic province, efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and continue to consolidate the good trend of stable and improved economic operation and improvement in quality.
In addition, Guangdong Province emphasized that it must take the political responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy, go all out to promote a good economic growth in the third quarter, strive to achieve the annual economic development goals, and make Guangdong's efforts and Guangdong's contribution to stabilizing the national economy.
Henan has made it clear that it will resolutely shoulder its political responsibility as a major economic province, and strive to maintain a stable and healthy economic development.
Hubei proposed to stick to the goal of the whole year and focus on tackling tough problems, hold the bottom line to ensure safety, and earnestly shoulder the political responsibility of a major economic province.”
Chen Hongyu, former vice-president of the Guangdong Provincial Party School and professor of economics, said that the effects of large economic provinces in structural transformation, institutional reform, and scientific research innovation are beyond the reach of some smaller provinces and cities. Large provinces have also seized the bulk of China's high-quality development.
Chen Hongyu believes that "a major economic province should take the lead", not to ask how fast the total economic growth of each province should be, but to strive to tap the potential of a major economic province in accordance with the country's economic development space, mobilize all positive factors, and drive and Structural adjustment to achieve the expected goals.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng, said that in the first half of the year, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places were severely hit by the epidemic. In the second half of the year, with the epidemic being stably controlled, these provinces and cities have the potential for a strong economic rebound, which can contribute to the national economy. Faster repairs play a leading role.
The policy side will encourage these places to fully unleash their growth potential.
Actively act in expanding demand
With the post-epidemic economic recovery, the impact of the epidemic on the supply side has basically ended. The main factor restricting economic growth at present is insufficient demand.
According to a survey by the Bureau of Statistics, the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand has risen for four consecutive months, exceeding 50% in July.
Faced with the core contradiction of insufficient effective demand in the real economy, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held a few days ago clearly stated that in the second half of the year, macroeconomic policies should be active in expanding demand, and fiscal and monetary policies should effectively make up for insufficient social demand.
Judging from the measures taken in various places, the policy focus is also mainly on the demand side, and promoting consumption and expanding effective investment have become key measures.
Luo Zhiheng told Yicai that the current supply has recovered relatively well, but the demand side is generally weak, and there is still a big gap from the normal state: First, the consumption of residents is sluggish and weak, and the consumption of the service industry, especially the catering, is still in negative growth, and residents' The marginal propensity to consume is always lower than before the epidemic; second, unstable risk factors have emerged in the real estate market, resulting in weaker real estate sales, investment and expectations; third, the current export growth rate has a large contribution from price, and the quantity after excluding price factors The year-on-year growth rate has obvious downward pressure.
Affected by the epidemic on residents' income, consumption willingness and future expectations, the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to June this year increased by -0.7% year-on-year, which is far from the 8% growth rate before the epidemic.
According to 2021 data, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP will reach 65.4%, and the impact of the current sluggish consumer demand on the economy is obvious.
The State Council executive meeting on July 21 proposed that consumption is closely related to people's livelihood and should still be the main driving force of the economy.
Financial institutions should be supported to adopt more flexible arrangements for personal consumption loans affected by the epidemic.
City-specific policies will promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, ensure rigid housing needs, and reasonably support improvement needs.
Introduce specific measures to support the healthy development of the platform economy, and give full play to the role of the platform economy in creating jobs and promoting consumption.
Increase financial support for import and export.
In terms of promoting consumption, Guangdong proposed to focus on boosting consumption, adhere to the coordinated efforts of production, trade and consumption, fully release the policy effect of promoting bulk consumption, and plan to launch more measures to promote consumption in the summer travel season and consumption season.
Hubei's deployment will stabilize bulk consumption such as cars and housing, promote traditional consumption such as food, clothing, housing, travel, travel, and travel, expand online and offline consumption space, and make every effort to boost consumption and drive a smooth economic cycle.
The nighttime economy has become a major starting point for promoting consumption. Beijing issued "Several Measures to Promote the Prosperity and Development of the Nighttime Economy" to upgrade the "version 3.0" policy of the nighttime economy; Tianjin held the third Tianjin Nightlife Festival "Tianjin Night You", Shanghai will also encourage the development of nighttime economy as an important part of boosting consumer confidence in the "Shanghai Action Plan for Accelerating Economic Recovery and Revitalization".
Judging from the current economic momentum, investment is still an important driver of economic growth.
The monthly investment in infrastructure construction in June increased by 8.2% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month; considering that the issuance of local bonds in June hit a record high, and the National Standing Committee proposed to increase the credit line of policy development banks by 800 billion yuan and issue 300 billion yuan For policy financial bonds, infrastructure investment is expected to continue to accelerate in the third quarter under the node requirements that new special bonds will be used up at the end of August.
In terms of stabilizing investment, Hubei proposed to focus on projects, progress, and investment promotion, so as to give full play to the role of investment as a ballast beam for stabilizing growth.
Jiangsu said that it will actively expand effective investment, moderately advance major projects such as transportation, energy, water conservancy, environmental protection and new infrastructure, and solidly promote urban organic renewal actions.
Guangdong has made it clear that it will launch a new batch of valuable and targeted policy measures based on the actual situation, make full use of policy financial instruments and special bond funds, do solid and detailed preliminary work on projects, give full play to the role of the parallel approval mechanism, and speed up major projects. building.
Luo Zhiheng said that expanding infrastructure investment has become an important starting point for stabilizing growth and expanding investment.
In the current situation of insufficient aggregate demand, it is expected that fiscal policy, monetary policy, and industrial policy will form a synergy to expand infrastructure investment, thereby stabilizing investment and aggregate demand.
Author: Zhu Yanran