Author: Lu Ruyi
In recent weeks, international crude oil prices have continued to fluctuate and decline.
Last week alone, international oil prices saw their biggest weekly drop since April 1 this year.
New York WTI oil prices fell by 9.74%, and Brent oil prices fell by 8.70%, falling to the level before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
As of the press release of the first financial reporter, the oil price of WTI in New York was US$89.70/barrel, and the oil price of Brent was US$95.79/barrel.
In recent days, the international oil price has repeatedly bottomed out and "breaks 100", which is the result of the combined effect of multiple factors such as the "strength" of the crude oil supply side and the "weakening of both the macroeconomic and demand sides".
On the one hand, as major oil producers Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have recently increased their crude oil production, supply in the international crude oil market has rebounded.
According to the first financial reporter, Libya has increased production by about 700,000 barrels per day in two weeks, and the current production has fully recovered to 1.2 million barrels per day; Russia's production in July has increased by about 700,000 barrels per day compared with April, and the current production is 1.2 million barrels per day. Before the production cut, the difference was only about 300,000 barrels per day; exports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased sharply by 1 million barrels per day and 300,000 barrels per day in July, reaching highs in nearly two and five years, respectively.
On the other hand, the prospect of crude oil demand is "overcast" due to the risk of economic recession. Weak demand and worries about economic recession have also become the main factors for lower international oil prices.
Dr. Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, told Yicai.com: "The recent slowdown in oil demand has become more obvious. In terms of demand for road transportation oil, we can see that the United States began to decline off-season in May, and Europe The travel demand in July also decreased significantly. From a macro perspective, the global economic slowdown, the tightening of central banks in the United States and Europe, high oil prices and economic slowdown have gradually turned from quantitative changes to qualitative changes.”
"The risk of economic recession in the second half of the year will be a substantial drag on oil prices from a cyclical perspective." Dr. Gui Chenxi analyzed to the First Financial Reporter that the downward pressure on oil prices in the later period is still relatively large, and the market's focus may gradually shift from the supply side to the demand side. .
At present, demand suppression has initially appeared, but there has not been a sharp decline. If the system risk intensifies in the later stage, there is still the possibility of continued reduction on the demand side.
Meanwhile, weak manufacturing data exacerbated fears of a recession and weak demand, weighing on the outlook for energy demand.
According to the data released by the world's major economies, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (the full name of "Purchasing Managers' Index", hereinafter referred to as "PMI") in various countries has hit new lows.
Specifically, Japan's final July PMI fell to 52.1, the lowest since September last year.
The euro area is also facing a similar "dilemma". The euro area's S&P Global PMI fell to 49.8 in July from 52.1 in June, which was the "first time" in the past two years (since June 2020) that it fell below the dividing line between prosperity and decline.
Germany's July PMI final value was 49.3, and France's July PMI final value was 49.5, both of which fell below the dividing line between prosperity and decline.
It is worth mentioning that the dividing line of PMI between prosperity and decline is 50. The index above 50 means the industry is expanding, and the index below 50 means shrinking.
Today, the PMIs of major economies such as Europe and the United States have fallen below the line of prosperity and decline, which means that the global economy may be in recession.
As the international oil price fluctuated and declined, the rate of change of crude oil changed from positive to negative, and the expectation of a downward revision of domestic refined oil prices "shrouded" the market.
According to the relevant provisions of my country's "Petroleum Price Management Measures", the price of domestic refined oil is a price adjustment cycle every ten working days. Compare the resulting rate of change.
According to the data monitoring model of Zhuochuang Information, as of the close on August 5 (that is, the ninth working day of the current round of domestic refined oil price adjustment and pricing cycle), the reference crude oil change rate has changed from positive to negative, which is negative 1.62%.
According to the first financial reporter, although there is still one working day before the opening of this round of price adjustment window, the industry unanimously predicts that this round of refined oil prices will likely usher in a downward adjustment.
According to the current price adjustment range, it is estimated that gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 80 yuan / ton, corresponding to the price of 92 gasoline will be reduced by 0.06 yuan / liter, and the price of 95 gasoline and 0 diesel will be reduced by 0.07 yuan / liter.
At that time, domestic refined oil prices will usher in the first "four consecutive declines" this year, and also the first "four consecutive declines" since 2019.