"The growth rate of foreign trade import and export in the first seven months has returned to double digits." Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told Yicai, which shows that the global demand for Chinese manufacturing will continue. The trend of China's foreign trade continues to improve.
On August 7, the latest foreign trade data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in the first seven months of this year, the total value of my country's foreign trade import and export was 23.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%.
Among them, exports were 13.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%; imports were 10.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%; trade surplus was 3.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 62.1%.
"The growth rate of foreign trade import and export in the first seven months has returned to double digits." Wei Jianguo, former vice minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice chairman of the China International Economic Exchange Center, told Yicai, which shows that the global demand for Chinese manufacturing will continue. The trend of China's foreign trade continues to improve.
At the same time, on August 7, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced the latest data on the scale of foreign exchange reserves. As of the end of July 2022, the scale of my country's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,104.1 billion, an increase of US$32.8 billion or 1.07% from the end of June.
In this regard, expert analysis believes that the rise in bond prices of major countries in July, coupled with the rebound of the global stock market at a low level, has made the scale of my country's foreign exchange reserves rebound slightly.
Moreover, the recovery of foreign trade in July was obvious, and the import and export of goods trade maintained a relatively large-scale surplus, which promoted the current account to maintain a surplus.
Preliminary data from the balance of payments statement for the first half of 2022 released by the foreign exchange bureau on August 5 shows that my country's current account surplus in the first half of the year was 169.1 billion US dollars, and the ratio to the gross domestic product (GDP) in the same period was 1.9%, continuing to be in a reasonable balance. interval.
Among them, the trade surplus in goods increased by 36% year-on-year, the highest value in the same period of the previous year, and imports and exports showed strong resilience.
The service trade deficit narrowed by 30% year-on-year.
The net inflow of direct investment was US$74.9 billion, maintaining a relatively high level, especially the net inflow of direct investment in China was US$149.6 billion.
Wang Chunying, deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and spokesperson, said that this shows that my country's market remains attractive to foreign investment.
Asset price factors drive a slight rebound in foreign reserves
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the main factors affecting the fluctuation of my country's foreign exchange reserves are still exchange rate factors and asset price changes.
From the perspective of exchange rate factors, the dollar index at the end of July was driven by factors such as rising inflation expectations and interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, up 1.1% from the end of June. Among non-dollar currencies, the euro fell by 2.5%, the pound fell by 0.1%, and the yen rose by 1.8%. Looking at the exchange rate factor, the non-dollar part of foreign exchange reserves has been slightly discounted.
From the perspective of asset price factors, in July, due to the rising expectations of a global economic recession, bond yields of major countries fell and prices rose; the global stock market rebounded from the previous low.
Changes in asset prices in both stocks and bonds have pushed up the scale of foreign reserves, and the increase has exceeded the impact of the decline caused by exchange rate conversion.
Wen Bin said that after excluding the exchange rate and asset price factors, we estimate that the foreign reserves caused by the balance of payments increased slightly month-on-month, which indicates that my country's foreign exchange market was generally stable in July, the domestic foreign exchange supply and demand remained basically balanced, and the current account of the balance of payments With a high probability of financial projects, it is still in a state of "one smooth and one negative", and the surplus factor is slightly stronger than the deficit factor.
It is expected that my country's import and export of goods trade will maintain a relatively high surplus in July, which will promote the current account to maintain a surplus.
Under financial items, direct investment is expected to maintain a net inflow, while the net outflow of securities investment is expected to shrink.
On the 7th, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs also showed that my country's total import and export value in July was 564.66 billion US dollars, an increase of 11%.
Among them, the export was 332.96 billion US dollars, an increase of 18%; the import was 231.7 billion US dollars, an increase of 2.3%; the trade surplus was 101.26 billion US dollars, an increase of 81.5%.
In terms of exchange rate performance, the overall RMB exchange rate remained stable in July. Considering the seasonal foreign exchange purchase factors such as overseas dividends, the actual performance was not weak, which was consistent with the increase in foreign reserves.
With the improvement of the epidemic situation and the progress of resumption of work and production, my country's economic fundamentals remain sound, which is conducive to maintaining a balance of international payments and stable foreign exchange reserves.
my country's foreign trade recovers significantly
Compared with the data in the first half of the year, the growth rates of imports and exports, exports and imports in the first seven months have all accelerated, and the recovery of foreign trade has been obvious.
The Yangtze River Delta region, which was hit hard by the previous epidemic, is recovering steadily.
According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of this year, the total import and export of the three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta was 8.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, 2.5 percentage points faster than the growth rate in the first half of the year.
From a monthly perspective, the growth rate of imports and exports in the Yangtze River Delta region has rebounded to 14.9% in June, a substantial increase of 10.1 percentage points from the growth rate in May.
In Wei Jianguo's view, although the global market demand is shrinking as a whole, the US and EU markets are still very dependent on China's supply chain, and will even usher in a node where the world is increasingly dependent on China.
Not only Europe and the United States, but also Japan and South Korea, where the demand was not so large in the past, has also seen more demand. "Overall, Japan and South Korea are affected by the epidemic and the energy crisis, and local enterprises are not operating enough, and there is a possibility of shutdown in the next step."
Under this circumstance, China's foreign trade will usher in the most critical period of receiving orders this year. If the order situation in the third quarter is good, the foreign trade in the fourth quarter of this year and even the whole year will be optimistic.
Customs statistics show that my country's foreign trade structure continued to optimize in the first seven months, with general trade imports and exports reaching 15.17 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%.
During the same period, my country’s imports and exports to major trading partners such as ASEAN, the European Union, the United States and South Korea increased, and the total imports and exports to countries along the “Belt and Road” reached 7.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.8%.
Among them, in the first seven months, my country's imports and exports with the other 14 member states of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) increased by 7.5% year-on-year.
Li Kuiwen, director of the Statistics and Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, said in the media that in July, my country's imports and exports to RCEP trading partners were 1.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, driving the overall import and export growth by 5.6 percentage points.
The RCEP came into effect this year, further deepening regional economic connectivity and trade and investment cooperation, providing new momentum for regional economic recovery and development.
Liu Xiangdong, deputy director and researcher of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that after the RCEP came into effect at the beginning of this year, a multilateral trade arrangement appeared between China, Japan and South Korea for the first time. The rapid development of commodity trade, the trade volume between China and South Korea has gradually increased.
Moreover, behind the continuous improvement of foreign trade, the resilience and vitality of private enterprises are inseparable.
Data show that in the first seven months, the number of foreign trade enterprises with import and export performance in my country was 526,000, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.
Among them, the import and export of private enterprises was 11.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, accounting for 50% of my country's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the same period last year.
Moreover, in the context of controllable "order outflow", exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products continued to maintain double-digit growth in the first seven months.
challenges remain
Looking forward to August, Zheng Houcheng, director of the British University Securities Research Institute, believes that it is expected that my country's foreign exchange reserves will likely remain above 3.10 trillion US dollars.
Zheng Houcheng analyzed that, first of all, many manufacturing indexes in the United States and the euro zone fell below the line of prosperity and decline after a lapse of 24 months in July. , and the downside probability is greater than the upside probability, which will continue to be bullish for my country's foreign exchange reserves.
Secondly, in the context of global geopolitical conflicts that are difficult to completely eliminate, and the global economic downturn is bullish for the U.S. dollar, which has a safe-haven attribute, and considering the strong non-farm employment data in the United States, it is expected that the U.S. dollar index will remain at a high position in the short term, with a high probability A slight marginal bearishness was formed on the foreign exchange reserves in August.
Finally, although the overseas macro economy is under pressure, the current global manufacturing PMI of JP Morgan is still above the line of prosperity and decline, superimposing that my country is facing "triple pressure", and my country's manufacturing PMI has fallen below the line of prosperity and decline. The trade surplus will remain at a high level.
Wang Chunying said that the current global economic situation is full of challenges, unstable and uncertain factors have increased significantly, and the international financial market is volatile.
However, my country has effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development. The economy has strong resilience, great potential, and sufficient vitality. The fundamentals of long-term improvement will not change, and it will continue to support the overall stability of the scale of foreign exchange reserves.
Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Department of Foreign Trade, also pointed out at the press conference on July 29 that the development of foreign trade faces high risks, great difficulties and many uncertain factors.
The risk of stagflation in the world economy has risen significantly, many major economies have continued to raise interest rates, and the outlook for trade growth is not optimistic.
Wei Jianguo believes that in general, only a country like China with a highly complete production chain can meet the multi-variety and multi-level needs of the global market. Therefore, with the continuous decline of bulk commodities and the successive decline of shipping prices, the window period of China's foreign trade is expected to be Continue to extend, the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year will continue to improve.
Next, we must take the initiative to "grab orders", strengthen truck transportation services, use new forms such as charter flights, and give more consideration to and solve the difficulties of foreign trade enterprises, so that foreign trade enterprises can fully enjoy the foreign trade window period, and I believe it can make up for investment to a certain extent. and insufficient consumption.
In response to the foreign trade situation in the second half of the year, Zhang Bin said that in the second half of the year, the Ministry of Commerce will highlight three focus points, actively promote exports, expand imports, and take multiple measures to stabilize foreign trade.
One is the amount of expansion.
Increase support for export credit insurance.
The second is stable stock.
Strengthen foreign trade operation monitoring, forecasting and early warning, and closely follow and judge the situation.
We will implement policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade, such as the opinions on promoting the stability and improvement of foreign trade.
The third is strong protection.
Guide all localities to increase efforts to stabilize foreign trade in the second half of the year, stabilize the expectations of small, medium and micro foreign trade enterprises, and effectively support foreign trade enterprises to reduce costs.
Author: Xu Yanyan ▪ Miao Qi ▪ Feng Difan ▪ Gao Ya