Rarely do the prospects and retrospects diverge so markedly as they did for Commerzbank in this half-year.
The bank has had the best second quarter since 2011: a loss a year ago, the main reason for which was the last costs for the restructuring that finally started in 2021, has turned into a surprisingly high profit because interest rates are finally rising and earnings are bubbling with it, especially in the Polish subsidiary M-Bank.
In front of Commerzbank, however, are the worst scenario: a gas stop, a recession, more loan defaults.
And for the M-Bank in the third quarter a loss because of a new law that favors borrowers at the expense of the bank.
Commerzbank's board of directors deserve credit for how openly they assess the risks.
Gained in resilience
In a recession, the costs of bad loans, including existing reserves, could amount to a maximum of 2 billion euros this year.
Then Commerzbank would miss the annual targets it had set itself, above all a net profit of more than 1 billion euros.
But even in a recession, it would probably still turn a small profit in 2022.
In view of the history of the bank, this is not a matter of course, but progress that would impressively demonstrate the success of the restructuring.