Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager is rarely at a loss for clear words - this was also the case at the turning point in EU trade policy.

"A large part of European industry is based on very cheap energy from Russia, very cheap labor from China and highly subsidized semiconductors from Taiwan," she stressed in a recent interview with the Belgian business newspaper De Tijd.

It was a risk to become dependent on Russia despite the attractive price.

"The lesson I learned: We have to pay a security premium." And further: "Imagine if all the things in this room that were produced outside of Europe were suddenly gone.

We looked like we'd played a game of strip poker.”

Henrik Kafsack

Business correspondent in Brussels.

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For the European Commission, which has long professed to be an advocate of the pure doctrine of trade policy, according to which the EU cannot open itself enough to trade, these are remarkable words – especially because they came from the mouth of a liberal, still plus a Danish one.

After all, the northern Europeans have always seen themselves as a bulwark against a more “French industrial policy” that relies on interventions in the market and protection of domestic industry from the competition.

"Development is problematic"

In fact, the perspective of European trade policy has shifted noticeably since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The decoupling from Russian gas and oil fuels above all the debate about decoupling from China, an unpleasant partner because of its aggressive power politics and human rights violations.

The current tensions between China and the West over the visit to Taiwan by the highest representative of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, once again underline the pressure to act.

The Ukraine war - combined with the major supply chain problems after the end of the Corona crisis - has shown not only Vestager once again how dangerous dependencies on trading partners can be.

The geostrategic importance of trade has come to the fore, the old guiding principle "change through trade" has been removed from all speeches and replaced by the mantra-like repeated formula "We must not be naive".

This is not a turnaround for France.

In foreign trade policy, it has always paid attention to its geostrategic interests.

Paris sees itself confirmed in exercising caution when opening the markets.

For Germany as a trading nation, however, this is new territory.

Who would have thought a year ago that the German Economic Institute (IW) would speak out against putting the investment agreement with China, which had been on hold under German pressure for the past year, into effect?

But that is exactly what commercial economist Jürgen Matthes is demanding.

Politicians must also reduce other incentives for activities in China, above all investment guarantees, he says.

The EU is similarly dependent on China and vice versa - which should actually reduce the potential for conflict between the partners.

"But the development is problematic," emphasizes Matthes.

Because China's dependency has fallen noticeably in recent years and is continuing to decrease.

Germany, on the other hand, is already much more dependent on China than vice versa.

So if the EU wants to remain in a position to react decisively to a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan or to sanction crimes against minorities such as the Uyghurs, it must break away from China.

But how?

Should it really decouple itself from China?

And what does that mean for trade with other countries that do not share European values?

Will the world break up into multiple trading blocs?

Should the Europeans in future only obtain preliminary products from "friendly" countries?

The US Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, called this “friendshoring”, only working with countries that have similar ideas about business and trade.

This is met with skepticism in the European Commission.

“We cannot divide the world into friends and foes.

Only trade with friends, that would be a lonely story,” says a high-ranking EU official.

The chairman of the Trade Committee in the European Parliament, Bernd Lange (SPD), also considers “friendshoring” to be a utopia.

“What is important is that we have resilient supply chains,” he says.

This is precisely why the EU must now promote bilateral trade agreements.