Companies and experts warn of a "worrying slowdown in employment" and "more uncertainty" in the fall

• Spain loses 7,366 jobs and unemployment rises by 3,230 people in the worst July in more than twenty years

The

, which were unanimously considered "

" as jobs had been destroyed and unemployment increased for the first time in a month of July in more than 20 years, led the

on Tuesday to point to a

that will cool the labor market and led

to forecast a

for the

.

"The unemployment data registered in July has been bad (...) There are two fundamental elements that explain it: global economic uncertainty and inflation, due to the war in Ukraine that is causing negative elements in the world economy and in Europe , affecting the supply chain and generating

energy.This

global

, which clearly cannot remain oblivious, absolutely immune and shielded from the context international economic situation", acknowledged this Monday

, Secretary of State for Employment.

In his opinion, the

last month and the

, unusual data for a traditionally positive month for employment, could point to a

although now the labor market he is much more prepared to face it because of the labor reform.

"The rise in unemployment shows a new configuration of our labor market, which is now very resilient. Before,

, the labor market

and surely, as of the labor reform,

that has the capacity to resist through mechanisms other than temporary hiring and dismissals", he stressed, without wanting to confirm whether the change in cycle is already taking place, when asked by this medium at a press conference .

It would not be surprising or striking if unemployment entered a cycle of negative seasonality

Joaquín Pérez Rey, Secretary of State for Employment

Although he did not want to talk about the future given the level of uncertainty, the Secretary of State did advance that

for employment and that this year will not be an exception.

"The month of July is a period of transition between positive and negative seasonality. Beyond the incidence of uncertainty and inflation problems, if we look at the usual behavior of the labor market as of August,

which is not necessarily associated with an economic imbalance but rather with the usual trend," he predicted.

"It is difficult to guess what the evolution is going to be because the level of uncertainty is very important and there are many variables at play, from prices to energy problems and many others, and

What we can say is that now the Spanish labor market, from the labor reform, has devices and instruments to

, "he claimed.

Other members of the Government have expressed themselves along the same lines, from the president himself,

, who did not want to fall "neither into euphoria nor into catastrophism" when evaluating the data, to the first vice president,

who has observed a

.

Pessimism for the fall

After six months with very positive data from the labor market, which has been behaving better than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the month of July has surprised on the downside and fuels

of the country, in line with other negative data such as the PMI for the manufacturing industry that was released on Monday.

"All the indicators updated in this last week bring

", pointed out yesterday the economist

, collaborator of

"Obviously,

since it represents the first monthly decrease since records are available. In fact, our estimates indicate that adjusted for seasonality, traditionally positive in the period, affiliation would have fallen by 25,000 people after two consecutive years of job creation (...). The behavior of the affiliation during the entire second half of July was particularly anemic when compared to that of the two previous financial years",

, his head of economic analysis, pointed out that these negative signs from the labor market suppose

The employers' association,

, also believes that July will mark a

for employment.

"This is unusual behavior in the summer period, which

in an uncertain economic context to which all indicators point. For this reason, CEOE insists on the need to support companies in this scenario of uncertainty ", they asked in a statement.

"The data on unemployment and registration for the month of July

that had been anticipated for some months and that has been reflected in a drop in registration and an unusual increase in unemployment for a month of July, traditionally positive for the creation of employment. These data already reflect the effects of the economic slowdown and the increase in inflation on employment, with a lower rate of creation of new jobs in the service sector, especially in the hotel industry, and

", he pointed out for its part

.

In the opinion of the organization led by Gerardo Cuerva, from now on we could see a "rebalance" between the evolution of activity -GDP- and employment, which until now have not gone hand in hand.

"In July, the labor market is beginning to show signs of economic uncertainty, inflation and problems in production derived, among other factors, from the existing bottlenecks.

that companies are going through, due to the increase in their costs, the difficulties in carrying out their activity and the enormous uncertainty in the international context", he added.

"If last year we said the data was positive, today we find some lousy data on unemployment and affiliation to Social Security, which

Very complicated, in terms of employment and in economic matters," he said. For his part

president of

, after learning that 10,422 freelancers were lost in July, that is, 350 freelancers a day, the worst figure in the last 13 years for this month.

The unions,

have also described the data as "bad" and have referred to the current economic context as "

", "due to the maintenance of the war in Ukraine and the high energy costs that make the basket more expensive month after month purchase, and have already been transferred to other goods and services, weighing down household consumption".

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