China News Service, July 31. According to the website of the Bureau of Statistics on the 31st, on July 31, 2022, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index.

In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, made an interpretation.

　　In July, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was below the threshold; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 53.8% and 52.5%, respectively, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous month And 1.6 percentage points, two consecutive months in the expansion zone.

Overall, my country's economic prosperity level has declined, and the foundation for recovery still needs to be consolidated.

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to contractionary range

　　In July, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0% due to factors such as the traditional off-season of production, insufficient release of market demand, and the decline in the prosperity of high-energy-consuming industries.

　　(1) Some industries maintained a recovery trend.

Among the 21 industries surveyed, 10 industries have PMIs in the expansion range, among which the PMIs of agricultural and sideline food processing, food and beverage refined tea, special equipment, automobiles, railways, ships, and aerospace equipment are higher than 52.0%, for two consecutive years. Monthly expansion, production and demand continued to recover.

The PMI of high-energy-consuming industries such as textiles, petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing continued to be in the contraction range, which was significantly lower than the overall level of the manufacturing industry, which was one of the main factors for the decline of PMI this month.

　　(2) The price index dropped significantly.

Affected by factors such as fluctuations in the prices of international bulk commodities such as oil, coal and iron ore, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 40.4% and 40.1% respectively, down 11.6 and 6.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Among them, the two price indexes of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry are the lowest among the surveyed industries, and the purchase price of raw materials and the ex-factory price of products have dropped significantly.

Due to the sharp fluctuations in the price level, some companies have aggravated wait-and-see sentiment and weakened purchasing intentions. The purchasing volume index this month was 48.9%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month.

　　(3) The expected index of production and operation activities is in the expansion range.

Recently, the internal and external environment of my country's economic development has become more complex and severe. The production and operation of enterprises have continued to be under pressure, and market expectations have been affected to a certain extent. The production and operation activity expectation index was 52.0%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the expansion range.

From the perspective of the industry, the production and operation activity expectation index of agricultural and sideline food processing, special equipment, automobile, railway, ship, and aerospace equipment and other industries is in the high boom range of over 59.0%, and the industry market is expected to be generally stable; while the textile industry, petroleum, coal and other industries The fuel processing industry and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry have been in the contraction range for 4 consecutive months, and related companies are not confident in the development prospects of the industry.

　　This month, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry declined after the rapid release in June. The production index and the new order index were 49.8% and 48.5% respectively, down 3.0 and 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, both in the contraction range.

The survey results show that the proportion of enterprises reflecting insufficient market demand has increased for 4 consecutive months, exceeding 50% this month. Insufficient market demand is the main difficulty faced by manufacturing enterprises at present, and the foundation for the recovery of manufacturing industry development still needs to be stabilized.

2. The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to expand

　　In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the non-manufacturing industry recovered for two consecutive months.

　　(1) The service industry continued to recover.

In July, the service industry business activity index was 52.8%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range, indicating that the service industry continued to recover driven by a series of policy measures to stabilize growth and promote consumption.

Among the 21 industries surveyed, the business activity index of 16 industries is in the expansion range, among which industries such as air transport, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facility management are higher than 60.0%. The previously suppressed consumer demand continues to release, and related industries Business volume continued to recover rapidly.

At the same time, the business activity indexes of industries such as insurance, leasing and business services, and residential services have all declined, and they are in the contraction range, and the market activity of the industry is weak.

From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 58.8%, which is still in a relatively high economic range. The business activity expectation index of all industries surveyed has been above the critical point for two consecutive months, and the confidence of service industry companies has generally recovered.

　　(2) The expansion of the construction industry accelerated.

The business activity index of the construction industry was 59.2%, 2.6 percentage points higher than the previous month, and the production activities of the construction industry accelerated.

From the perspective of industry situation, the business activity index, new order index and employee index of civil engineering and construction industry were 58.1%, 51.8% and 51.9% respectively, up 0.2, 1.6 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the construction of infrastructure projects is accelerating. , the market demand has rebounded, the employment of enterprises continues to increase, and the industry is expected to maintain steady growth.

3. The expansion of the composite PMI output index has slowed down

　　In July, the composite PMI output index was 52.5%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but at a slower pace.

The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 49.8 percent and 53.8 percent, respectively.

(Zhongxin Finance)