Editor's Note Since the beginning of this year, my country's economy has been under pressure, and the operation of the industrial chain and supply chain has shown strong resilience, providing strong support for stable growth.
In the second half of the year, what new trends will my country's industrial development take, and what new measures will be taken for high-quality development?
A series of reports will be launched today, so stay tuned.
In the first half of this year, my country's auto market environment was complex and changeable, and the market growth rate showed a "V"-shaped trend.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, my country's auto sales in the first half of the year were 12.057 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, but the decline was 5.6 percentage points lower than that from January to May.
It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, the top ten companies (groups) in automobile sales sold a total of 10.343 million vehicles, accounting for 85.8% of the total automobile sales.
In other words, car companies other than these top ten companies (groups) only account for the remaining 14.2% of the market.
Combining with the performance forecast for the first half of this year released by more than a dozen car companies, the performance of car companies is clearly differentiated.
According to industry insiders, with the acceleration of intelligentization and electrification in the automotive industry, slow-transforming car companies will gradually be eliminated.
Self-owned brand car companies go up
Since the beginning of this year, the auto market has experienced "high opening", "waist break", "matching" and "new high", which is as thrilling as a roller coaster.
During this period, the continuous increase in the market share of self-owned brand cars has become the biggest bright spot in my country's auto market.
In the first half of this year, a total of 4.891 million self-owned brand passenger cars were sold, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, accounting for 47.2% of the total passenger car sales, an increase of 5.3 percentage points over the same period last year, continuing the continuous improvement since last year.
Great Wall Motor, Changan Automobile, BYD and other leading car companies performed well.
In the first half of the year, Great Wall Motor is expected to make a profit of 5.3 billion to 5.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% to 67.2%; Changan Automobile is expected to make a profit of 5 billion to 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 189.14% to 258.54%; BYD Profits are expected to range from 2.8 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 138.59% to 206.76%.
Especially in the field of new energy vehicles, independent brands have become the absolute main force.
BYD Auto officially stopped the production of fuel vehicles in March this year, becoming the first traditional company in the world to stop the production of fuel vehicles.
In the first half of this year, BYD's new energy vehicle sales exceeded 640,000.
In mid-June, BYD stood on the market value of one trillion yuan for the first time, becoming the first car company in my country with a market value of more than one trillion yuan.
Chery, GAC, Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle and other traditional self-owned brand car companies have launched new energy vehicles, all of which achieved positive growth in the first half of the year.
Ideal, Nezha, Xiaopeng, Weilai, Leapao and other new car-making forces also bucked the trend in the first half of the year, with new products emerging one after another, with a considerable increase.
In the first half of the year, the overall production and sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations, with 2.661 million and 2.6 million completed respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year. The scale of production and sales reached a new high, and the market penetration rate reached 21.6%.
As of June 30, the number of new energy vehicles in my country has exceeded 10 million.
From the changes in the number of related companies, we can also feel the fiery degree of the new energy vehicle industry.
According to Tianyancha data, as of July 14, there were about 552,000 new energy vehicle-related enterprises nationwide, of which 118,000 were newly registered in the first half of this year, and the average growth rate of newly registered enterprises from January to June was 46.5 %, maintaining rapid growth.
Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Automobile Association, said that the market share of self-owned brands continues to increase, and the core is the improvement of brand competitiveness.
Self-owned brand products are being accepted by more and more domestic consumers, which will inevitably lead to an increase in sales volume and market share.
Especially in the field of new energy vehicles, self-owned brands have made efforts earlier, showing a vigorous and upward development trend.
"Generally speaking, in the next two to three years, independent brands will show a steady development trend." Xu Haidong said.
The market continues to survive the fittest
Different from the rapid progress of leading independent brand car companies in the field of new energy, the subdivision of the track is obvious.
As of July 18, 16 listed auto companies have released 2022 semi-annual performance forecasts, including 3 companies with pre-increase in net profit, 1 company with a loss, and 12 companies with pre-reduction in performance, first loss, and continued loss.
The fuel vehicle market is not optimistic.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, analyzed that in June, the cumulative sales of passenger vehicles in the narrow sense were 7.71 million units, a 12% decrease from the cumulative growth rate of the same period last year.
The trend of traditional fuel vehicles is relatively sluggish. Although they are recovering growth, they are much lower than the sales in 2019.
The continued downward trend in this area has brought greater market pressure.
In the fierce market competition, some relatively weak car companies are in trouble.
On July 15, the first creditor meeting of the merger and reorganization of 6 companies including Hunan Leopard Automobile Co., Ltd. was held. The once brilliant Leopard Automobile went to bankruptcy and reorganization.
On July 18, Stellantis Group announced that it will negotiate with GAC Group to terminate the local joint venture, and will focus on distributing imported vehicles of the Jeep brand in China in the future, which means that GAC Fick, established in 2010, is about to end.
At present, in addition to several joint venture brands that have been delisted, there are still many brands that are still struggling, such as Mitsubishi, Peugeot, and Citroen.
On the new energy vehicle track, a large number of new entrants lacking technology and experience have also been eliminated, such as Byton, Bojun, Sailin, etc.
Recently, Singularity Automobile, one of the earliest domestic new energy car companies, was frequently sued for arrears of wages for employees and payment for goods from suppliers.
In this regard, Xu Haidong believes that differentiation is inevitable in the market economy, and the result of differentiation is that some good independent brands will continue to rise, while some poor ones may face elimination.
The rise of a good self-owned brand often means that it will occupy more market share and lead the entire self-owned brand car market share to develop upward.
It is foreseeable that in the next few years, a large number of car companies will face pressure, and the differentiation will be further intensified.
Perhaps it will be as predicted by Zhu Huarong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of Changan Automobile, at the beginning of the year, in the next 3 to 5 years, 80% of China's fuel vehicle brands will "shut down and transfer" (close, stop production, merge, transform).
The industry is expected to improve in the second half of the year
Since the beginning of this year, my country's auto industry has shown strong development resilience in the face of the triple pressure of supply shock, demand contraction, and weakening expectations, as well as the supply chain test brought about by the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Chen Shihua, deputy secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that with the joint efforts of all parties, my country's auto industry has stepped out of the lowest point in April, and the production and sales performance in June was even better than the historical level in the same period, indicating that my country's auto production and sales have fully returned to normal. Level.
As the resumption of work and production in the auto industry has been fully achieved, all car companies are stepping up production and sales on the premise of normalizing epidemic prevention and control. volume target.
At the same time, in addition to the policy of halving the purchase tax, which will continue until the end of the year, some provinces and cities have introduced policies to increase the consumption of automobiles, which will effectively release potential consumer demand.
Major car companies have confidence in the market development in the second half of this year.
BYD expects that the total sales this year will reach 1.5 million, and it is expected to hit 2 million if the supply chain is good.
According to the annual sales forecast of 1.5 million units, BYD still needs to complete the sales of about 860,000 units in the second half of the year, that is, the monthly average sales volume is more than 143,000 units.
In June, BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu said at the shareholders' meeting that BYD has more than 500,000 orders in hand and is increasing, and the delivery cycle will take five to six months.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Chen Shihua said that under the encouragement of a series of consumption promotion policies, my country's macro economy will maintain stable growth, market consumer confidence will also be significantly restored, the effect of the policy of halving the purchase tax will continue to show, and the passenger car market will pick up momentum. It will also further increase; under the influence of favorable factors such as infrastructure and truck loan deferred repayment of principal and interest, the truck market is also expected to bottom out and rebound; new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a high-speed growth momentum.
According to Chen Shihua's comprehensive research, my country's auto sales are expected to reach 27 million this year, an increase of about 3% year-on-year.
Among them, passenger car sales are expected to reach 23 million units, a year-on-year increase of about 7%; commercial vehicle sales are expected to reach 4 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 16%; new energy vehicle sales are expected to reach 5.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of more than 56%.
Liu Jin
Liu Jin