“If the heat wave is strong this year, inflation is expected to reach 5.0% in the second half of the year.”

If the number of days of heatwave this year is longer than normal, it is predicted that the inflation pressure for the dining table will increase and the inflation rate in the second half of the year could rise to 5.0%.

In a report on 'Additional Inflationary Pressure, Heatwave' released on the 31st, the Hyundai Research Institute said, "If the heat wave continues, it is highly likely that the inflationary pressure at the table, which is highly related to the economy of the common people, such as agricultural and livestock products, will increase."

According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, the average number of days of heatwave (with a daily maximum temperature of 33 degrees Celsius or higher) nationwide as of the 27th was 6.5 days, exceeding the average annual value (4.9 days) for the same period, increasing the possibility of exceeding the annual average annual value of 11.0 days. no see.

As a result of Hyundai Yeon's classification of 31 years from 1991 to 2021 into years of strong heat and weak heat, the average number of heat days in the year of strong heat wave was 15.9 days and the year of heat wave weakness was 5.8 days, respectively.

This year is highly likely to be a heat wave strong year, as it has already surpassed the annual average number of heat days in bearish years as of the last 27 days.

As a result of the analysis by Hyundai Research Institute, it was found that the average inflation rate in the second half of the year when the heat wave was strong increased by about 0.2 percentage points (p) compared to the first half.

In particular, items such as agricultural and livestock products, processed food, and dining out were heavily pressured by the heat wave.

On the other hand, during the mild heat wave year, the average inflation rate in the second half of the year was 0.3 percentage points lower than in the first half, resulting in price stability.

The Hyundai Research Institute predicted, "If the number of heatwave days this year approaches the highest level, the average inflation rate in the second half of the year will reach about 4.8 to 5.0 percent."

The cumulative inflation rate in the first half of this year was 4.6%, but if the heat wave reaches the average level of a strong year, the average inflation rate in the second half will increase by 0.2 percentage points to 4.8%, the researcher analyzed.