China News Service, July 28 (Zhongxin Finance reporter Li Jinlei) The research group of the Macroeconomic Research Think Tank of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the "Analysis of China's Economic Situation in the Mid-term of 2022".

The report pointed out that in the second half of 2022, China's economy may face the challenges of repeated epidemics, declining exports, and weak real estate supply and demand. It is recommended to strengthen policy responses from six aspects.

The second half of the year may face the challenges of three overlapping risks

　　The report believes that in the first half of 2022, the Ukraine crisis will continue to ferment, and global inflationary pressure will increase.

The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has triggered a wave of interest rate hikes around the world, which may trigger economic recession and sovereign debt crises in some countries.

　　From January to mid-to-early March 2022, China's economy is stable and improving. From late March to mid-May, the downward pressure has increased significantly due to the sudden outbreak of the epidemic. Since late May, with the steady progress of resumption of work and production and various bailouts The policy was implemented, and major economic indicators showed a marginal recovery trend.

　　"However, as the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations has not fundamentally improved, coupled with the impact of external factors such as the Ukraine crisis and the Fed's rate hike, China's economic recovery still faces many challenges," the report pointed out.

　　According to the analysis of the report, in the second half of 2022, China's economy may face three challenges with overlapping risks: first, the repeated local epidemics will restrict economic operation; second, the contraction of foreign demand in developed countries will lead to a decline in China's exports; third, the supply and demand of real estate will continue to drag on domestic demand. increase.

If these three types of risks can be effectively resolved, there is a high probability of returning to the normalized growth range in the second half of the year; if the three types of risks are superimposed, coupled with the damage to the balance sheets of some private enterprises and residential sectors, the endogenous driving force may continue to be weak. Further intensify policy efforts to stabilize the macroeconomic market and ensure that the economy operates within a reasonable range.

It is recommended to strengthen policy responses from six aspects

　　In order to more effectively resolve the triple pressure, deal with the superposition of the three risks more accurately, and more effectively promote the sustained economic recovery, the report recommends strengthening policy responses from six aspects.

　　The first is to plan a reserve increment policy in a timely manner to provide assistance for economic recovery; the second is to stabilize market expectations through deepening reforms and expand domestic effective demand; the third is to insist on maintaining a stable chain and placing equal emphasis on epidemic prevention and control, and promote the continuous smooth flow of the industrial chain and supply chain; The fourth is to strengthen the guiding position of employment priority in macro policies, and increase efforts to ease the pressure on total and structural employment; China's spillover effects stabilize the international community's confidence in China's economy.

　　In terms of specific measures, the report suggests that fiscal policies should increase efforts to stabilize growth and ensure employment, and use some financial resources to dispose of real estate market risks while promoting the recovery of effective demand.

An additional 1 trillion to 2 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic national debt will be issued as appropriate.

The use of funds can take into account epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and priority is given to projects that can form equity assets and generate medium and long-term cash flow returns.

　　The report recommends that monetary policy should focus on coordinating the functions of aggregate tools and structural tools, commercial finance and policy finance, indirect financing and direct financing, reducing the financing cost of the real economy and maintaining a reasonable growth of total credit.

Opportunity to lower the statutory deposit reserve ratio.

While ensuring reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the real economy and stabilizing the supply of credit, it can also replace the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and reduce the cost of banks' liabilities.

　　The report also pointed out that areas seriously affected by the epidemic can take measures such as issuing cash or consumer coupons to help consumer demand recover.

For areas severely affected by the epidemic and industries that have been repeatedly restricted from operating due to the epidemic, consumer coupons or cash to specific low-income groups will be appropriately issued according to financial constraints to encourage residents to consume.

The issuance of consumer coupons should focus on fairness and inclusiveness, avoid targeting only a few platforms or merchants, and avoid discrimination against low-income people and the elderly who do not use network equipment.

For the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances, management policies should be further optimized to meet the needs of residents' consumption upgrade.

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