China News Service, July 29 (China-News Financial Reporter Li Jinlei) What will China's economy do in the second half of the year?

Center gives the answer.

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on July 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year.

　　"Strive to achieve the best results", "Macro policies should be active in expanding demand", "guarantee the delivery of buildings and stabilize people's livelihood", "implement normalized supervision of the platform economy", "enable state-owned enterprises to dare to work, private enterprises to dare to venture, and foreign enterprises to dare to invest"... ... This heavy meeting pointed out the direction and requirements for the economic work in the second half of the year, and released important signals.

Strive for the best results

　　China's economic growth target for 2022 is about 5.5%, but due to factors such as the epidemic, China's economy grew by 4.8% in the first quarter and 2.5% in the first half of the year. How should the economic work target for the second half of the year be anchored?

　　The meeting emphasized that keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range and striving to achieve the best results.

The meeting also demanded that the major economic provinces should bravely take the lead, and the qualified provinces should strive to achieve the expected goals of economic and social development.

　　Feng Xuming, director of the Macroeconomic Think Tank Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told Chinanews.com's "China New Observation" column that this is equivalent to giving the local a "baton". In the second half of the year, efforts should be made to promote development as much as possible, and strive for conditions to achieve higher levels throughout the year. reasonable growth rate.

　　Feng Xuming believes that the first task in the second half of the year is to ensure that economic growth returns to the potential growth rate or even slightly higher than the potential growth rate as much as possible, and then, on this basis, as much as possible to fill the loss gap caused by the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year.

As far as the whole year is concerned, the performance of real GDP growth rate can be roughly summed up by "guaranteeing 4 and competing for 5".

Macroeconomic policies should take an active role in expanding demand

　　The meeting emphasized that macroeconomic policies should be active in expanding demand.

Fiscal and monetary policies should effectively make up for insufficient social demand.

Make good use of local government special bond funds and support local governments to make full use of the special debt limit.

Monetary policy should maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and make good use of new credit from policy banks and investment funds for infrastructure construction.

　　In Feng Xuming's view, the main contradiction facing the current macro economy is the lack of aggregate demand. On the one hand, the motivation of enterprises to invest is not very strong. Under such circumstances, government departments should expand demand and make up for the gap, thereby driving more business investment, and at the same time, by increasing the provision of some public goods, driving consumption in the residential sector.

　　The macroeconomic research think tank research group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences recently released the "Analysis of China's Economic Situation in the Mid-term of 2022". Large regions and industries, as well as scientific and technological innovation, green and low-carbon transformation and other key areas of support.

Data map.

Photo by China News Agency reporter Zhang Bin

Guaranteed handover, stable people's livelihood

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning that houses are for living, not for speculation, and make full use of the policy toolbox for city-specific policies, support rigid and improved housing needs, compact local government responsibilities, and ensure payment. Building, stable people's livelihood.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the expression "stabilizing the real estate market" ranks ahead of "housing and not speculating," and has very strong guiding significance.

In the second half of the year, all localities should eliminate factors that affect the stability of real estate, and promote the healthy development of the real estate market.

　　In Yan Yuejin's view, the expression "guaranteing the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood" is based on the suspension of work and loans in July this year, and is highly targeted.

Building handover is an important task in the second half of the year, and it is also a task that the local government needs to work hard to grasp.

It is expected that there will be new actions in the second half of the year, especially in promoting the construction of housing enterprises, resolving the pressure on housing enterprises' debts, and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers. There will be positive progress and performance.

　　"A very important point in the second half of the year is to stabilize the real estate market, promote the return of the real estate market to normal development as soon as possible, and avoid it continuing to drag down the macro economy and expectations." Feng Xuming suggested that a special "Housing Construction and Security Fund".

One is to help deal with real estate project risks and real estate enterprise risks in the short term, and part of the funds can be used to take over and continue construction and suspension projects, as well as inject capital into some problematic real estate enterprises.

Second, in the long run, taking into account the particularity of the real estate sector, gradually distinguish real estate financing from general commercial financing, in order to provide professional investment and financing services for the real estate sector.

Implement normalized supervision of the platform economy

　　The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision of the platform economy, and focus on launching a number of "green light" investment cases.

　　"It is necessary to promote the healthy development of the platform economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, and implement normalized supervision." The meeting held by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on April 29 also requested.

　　Feng Xuming said that the platform economy field represented by large Internet companies has experienced rapid development in the past two decades, but some related systems have not kept up with it, so it is necessary to strengthen the regulatory measures in the past two years, which is equivalent to " Supplementary lessons".

After two years of non-normal supervision, supervision concepts and policies have been gradually improved. After entering the normal supervision stage, the relationship between development and supervision will be more balanced, supervision policies will become more stable and transparent, legislation and system construction will be accelerate.

These are all conducive to guiding and stabilizing the expectations of market players, which is a positive signal.

　　Why focus on launching a batch of "green light" investment cases?

Feng Xuming said that normalized supervision is conducive to guiding expectations, but it is not enough to have policies and systems. Some positive cases must be used to convey information to the market more intuitively, which areas have greater potential for future development and are policies that encourage the market. subject entered.

"10,000 theories are not as good as a case", a good case is often more useful for guiding the expectations and confidence of market players.

Let state-owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises dare to venture, and foreign enterprises dare to invest

　　The meeting called for giving full play to the initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs, and creating a good policy and institutional environment, so that state-owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises dare to venture, and foreign enterprises dare to invest.

　　Feng Xuming believes that this is actually a re-emphasis of the importance of market players. Under the current triple pressure, the weakening of market players' expectations has not been fundamentally reversed. Some corporate players are not very willing to invest, but market players are modern The most critical cells of economic development, the "three dares" also reflect the central level's desire to further stimulate the initiative of market players in economic development, and further stabilize and boost market players' expectations.

　　The meeting pointed out that persistence is victory.

It is necessary to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.

We must resolutely and conscientiously implement the new crown pneumonia prevention and control policies and measures determined by the Party Central Committee, and ensure the orderly operation of key functions that affect economic and social development.

(Finish)