In the past two years, Germany has been able to learn the small economy of hoarding.

Her first rule is: If possible, try not to buy everyday things in stores when the majority of your circle of acquaintances has already lugged shopping carts full of them out of the supermarket.

And the second rule is: People who develop an idea well in advance of which things could become scarce in the future for whatever reason have a clear advantage over many of their contemporaries.

Christian Siedenbiedel

Editor in Business.

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What could be better than now, when everyone is complaining about the heat, to waste a cool thought on winter?

After all, no one knows exactly how scarce gas will become.

But the concern about certain bottlenecks is undoubtedly not unfounded.

And it can at least not be ruled out that other energy sources, such as heating oil, will become more expensive along with natural gas.

So is buying heating oil now a prime example of prudent anti-cyclical behavior?

The Internet portal Heizoel24, to which at least 500 oil traders report their prices, has disappointing news ready.

Heating oil was cheap for a very short time, at the beginning of July.

Many private households have also ordered, says Oliver Klapschus, head of the oil portal.

Only: It's too late now.

In the meantime, the price has risen again to a "normal summer level", says Klapschus.

That means: around 150 euros for 100 liters.

The summer level is "normal" anyway only for this year with its extreme energy prices.

In a long-term comparison, one would say: heating oil is extraordinarily expensive.

Experiences with the price of heating oil from other years

Now, of course, one does not know exactly how the oil price development will continue until winter.

There are certain insights from other years.

After all, you need heating oil when it gets colder.

If you are surprised by autumn every year, then you will place your order.

The smarter ones say that if everyone needs it, oil is too expensive - and order it in the summer.

But because quite a few think that way, heating oil is often not that cheap in summer either.

At least in many years, low heating oil prices are more likely to be found at the end of December and the beginning of January, when many have filled their oil tanks and are not yet reordering.

However, this year is certainly a lot, just one thing not: like all the others.

Giovanni Staunovo, oil specialist at Bank UBS, reports that in Switzerland homeowners are already being asked to fill up their heating oil storage "due to the uncertainty about the next few months".

Of course, consumers always prefer to be able to buy cheaper, he says: "But currently there is a certain security - having something instead of being without oil at the end of the day - is probably the better strategy." That too is probably part of the economy of the Hortens: If you're afraid of going empty handed, you become less price sensitive.

On the other hand, if you have the courage to play poker, you can wait.

Frank Schallenberger, oil expert at Landesbank Baden-Württemberg, is convinced: before winter there will still be occasions when the oil price is at least a little lower than it is now.

The price of crude oil, which, along with demand for heating oil, is one of the most important components of the price of heating oil, rose to almost $130 per barrel of North Sea Brent immediately after the start of the Ukraine war.

Among other things, concerns about a global recession have meanwhile dropped it again – to currently a good 105 dollars.

You can see that in the many consequences.

Producer prices in Germany, an important early indicator of inflation, did not rise as much in June as in May, the Federal Statistical Office announced on Wednesday.

And what the politicians' fuel discount failed to achieve, the recession worries easily achieved with their slight drop in oil prices: fuel at the gas station now costs significantly less than 2 euros per liter on average.

It is quite possible that the price of oil will continue to fall.

Analyst Schallenberger points out, among other things, that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are likely to produce more oil in the second half of the year, as is the United States.

Last but not least, the war in Ukraine will weaken Europe's economy and thus reduce the demand for oil.

However, there is still a risk that the gas drama will not leave the price of oil unaffected.

Buy a fan heater now?

If you don't have an oil heater, but heat with gas, you might consider buying a fan heater in a touch of anti-cyclical thinking.

After all, who knows whether these devices will not be sold out just as quickly as the toilet paper was in the past, or later vegetable oil, should the gas crisis escalate?

Test reports on fan heaters come to the conclusion that the devices, which are available at prices between 30 and 200 euros, are such climate-friendly power guzzlers that even if gas prices rise sharply, it will hardly be possible to make the fan heater a cheaper alternative to gas heating.

Nevertheless, one or the other might catch themselves thinking that in the event of a shortage of gas allocation, an expensively heated living room is still preferable to an unheated one.

After all, the online retailer Otto has already reported an increase in demand for electric heaters by a remarkable 1000 percent compared to the previous year - plus the information that there are no bottlenecks, but that delivery times are getting longer.

For such cases, the experience of two years has taught the economy of hoarding: Disturbing messages about impending shortages can become true simply because many people believe them - completely independent of whether there was any reliable reason for assuming imminent shortages at the beginning had given.