Hu Yu

　　Although the A-share market continued the trend of correction last week, the Shanghai index has stopped falling and turned up for the week, and the weekly decline of the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index has narrowed significantly.

In the eyes of industry insiders, the A-share market does not have systemic risks and is relatively resilient compared to overseas markets.

　　Judging from the second quarterly reports disclosed by public funds, the overall distribution of positions is concentrated, and the short-term gains in sectors with high positions are relatively large, while the positions in sectors with long-term growth potential, such as medicine, are relatively low.

In the eyes of industry insiders, this may induce investors to adjust their positions in the short term and exacerbate market volatility.

In the allocation of the market outlook, it is recommended to continue to maintain a balanced allocation of growth manufacturing, medicine and consumption.

　　Don't be pessimistic about medium-term trends

　　After the shock and fall, the Shanghai index took the lead in stabilizing last week.

Wind data shows that as of the close on July 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.30% for the week; the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.14% and 0.84%, respectively, and the adjustment range was significantly narrower than the previous week.

　　Last week, the A-share industry sector as a whole showed a trend of "oversold and compensated for the rise". The environmental protection, computer, and media sectors, which underperformed overall during the year, led the market, and the real estate sector that benefited from the policy rebounded to a certain extent; while the relatively strong power equipment in the previous period , agriculture and other sectors underperformed.

　　"The current market is in the inspection period after the strong rebound at the end of April. To judge the future market trend, we need to comprehensively consider the strength and sustainability of domestic growth recovery, the second quarter performance report, the policy environment for stabilizing growth, the local epidemic situation, and the expected recession in major overseas countries. In the opinion of Wang Hanfeng, chief strategist of CICC, it is not appropriate to be pessimistic about the trend of the A-share market in the medium term, and the Chinese market is relatively resilient relative to overseas.

　　Regarding the correction of the A-share market from the stage high in the past half a month, Xun Yugen, chief strategist of Haitong Securities, believes that this callback of a "cold spring" nature will not change the reversal trend since the end of April.

　　Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist of Industrial Securities, also believes that there is no systemic risk in the current market: "The current 'wide currency' is still continuing, and various 'steady growth' policies continue to be implemented and increased. From the perspective of micro liquidity, the market is changing The game of stock is 'gradually returning to 'incremental inflow'. Since May, the bottom of the market has moved up, and newly issued funds have recovered, and the market still has room for growth."

　　Two major directions are worth paying attention to

　　The overall performance and position changes of public funds in the second quarterly report are also topics of concern to investors.

　　The research report of the CITIC Securities strategy team pointed out that as of the second quarter of 2022, the overall average position of active equity public offering products was 84.6%, the highest level since 2006; from a structural point of view, the distribution of positions in the industry is further concentrated. At present, active equity The positions of quasi-public offering products in some consumer sectors such as upstream cycles, growth manufacturing, real estate, new and old infrastructure, and liquor are at historically high levels, and pharmaceutical positions are the lowest among major sectors.

　　"The distribution of positions is concentrated, the short-term growth of sectors with high positions is relatively large, and the positions of sectors with long-term growth potential such as pharmaceuticals are relatively low. These information may induce investors to adjust positions in the short term and exacerbate market volatility." CITIC Securities Chief Strategist Analyst Qin Peijing said so.

　　Dai Kang, chief strategist of GF Securities, also found a marginal change worth noting from the fund's second quarterly report: "The fund will seek new opportunities for diffusion in the 'consumption advantage' industries that have been resiliently restored after the epidemic in the second quarter, including food and beverages, commerce and retail. , beauty care, duty-free, hotel and catering, airports and other sectors have been increased to varying degrees in the second quarter. Following the characteristics of economic restoration, production (manufacturing) and living (consumption) later, China's advantageous assets will also be increased from '' Manufacturing advantage' spreads to 'consumption advantage'."

　　Combined with the analysis of the position structure of public funds in the second quarter, Lin Rongxiong, chief strategist of Essence Securities, believes that the current public investment group continues to choose to stick to the high-prosperity growth track, and "post-epidemic repair + reduced cost impact" is the biggest marginal change variable in the market outlook. .

"Under the influence of these two variables, the midstream manufacturing and downstream service industries, which have relatively high performance elasticity, are worthy of attention."

　　Balanced configuration into consensus

　　Regarding the layout of the market outlook, Qin Peijing suggested to continue to adhere to the balanced allocation of growth manufacturing, medicine and consumption.

"In the field of growth manufacturing, it is recommended to focus on semiconductors, military industry, smart cars, photovoltaics, and wind power. It is expected that the growth manufacturing market may be more inclined to semiconductor and military industries in the mid-to-late period of the interim report season; the pharmaceutical industry may usher in periodic valuation repairs, and it is recommended to focus on it. Innovative drugs, medical devices, CXO, and medical services; the consumer sector still focuses on two main lines: first, aviation, hotels, catering, and tourism; Home appliances, beauty industry chain, human resources services.”

　　Wang Hanfeng suggested that the allocation should still focus on areas with low valuations, low macro-correlation, or acceptable prosperity and policy support; for growth-style targets, the price/performance ratio is weakening after the recent continuous rebound, and subsequent fluctuations may will increase.

"With the sharp correction of upstream prices, it is recommended to gradually pay attention to the possible repairs in the mid- and downstream industries."

　　Dai Kang suggested that three main lines should be paid attention to in the allocation of the market outlook: First, the consumption areas that benefit from post-epidemic recovery and the transfer of PPI to CPI, including food and beverages, household appliances, etc.; Varieties include automobiles (including new energy vehicles), photovoltaic modules, and coal; third, restrictive policies have shifted to marginally loose Internet media, innovative drugs, and real estate leaders.