China News Service, July 26 (Zhongxin Finance and Economics Ge Cheng) After just experiencing a wave of "continuous declines", domestic oil prices are expected to usher in "three consecutive declines".
At 24:00 on July 26, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. The agency predicts that this round of refined oil prices will show a downward trend, ushering in the fourth reduction this year.
Data map: Gas station.
Photo by Liu Yanghe of China-Singapore Finance and Economics
Recently, the international oil price has shown a range-bound trend as a whole, and it is still in the adjustment stage.
In particular, WTI crude oil futures fell sharply after the month-to-month exchange, and the spread between WTI crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures widened rapidly, and investors were still in a wait-and-see attitude towards futures prices.
Affected by the fluctuation of international crude oil prices, the agency estimates that as of the ninth working day on July 25, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is US$100.70 per barrel, with a rate of change of -5.55%. It is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel will be reduced by one ton 320 yuan, or about 0.28 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel.
After the current round of oil price adjustment, No. 95 gasoline in some areas is expected to return to the "8 yuan era".
According to Wang Shan, a refined oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, the international crude oil futures prices continued to decline, the dollar rose to a high level in recent years and remained high, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates again and the possibility of demand destruction caused by inflation increased, which brought a certain negative to crude oil. pressure.
However, the crude oil market is still in a state of supply shortage, and in this environment, oil prices are still supported to some extent.
Wang Shan said that US President Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia did not have the expected effect to a certain extent. Although Saudi Arabia has stated that it will increase oil production by another 1 million barrels, it is not known how the production will be implemented, and the increase in production is difficult to achieve. Make up for the current lack of supply in the crude oil market.
Crude oil once rose to offset some of the losses.
The previous price adjustments of domestic refined oil products in 2022.
(Data source: National Development and Reform Commission)
"In general, international oil prices should be in a downward trend in shocks," said Dong Xiucheng, executive dean of the Institute of International Business Strategy at the University of International Business and Economics. "The oil prices in the second half of the year will be lower than the levels in the first half of the year, and there will definitely be fluctuations and fluctuations in oil prices. It fluctuates, but it is still relatively difficult to drop to about forty or fifty dollars.” (End)