The real economy is recovering with strong resilience (mid-year economic observation)


　　From April 10, the national express parcel collection volume dropped to 242 million pieces, to June 1, the collection volume rebounded to 425 million pieces, and the "semi-annual report" of the express delivery industry showed a V-shaped reversal.

　　In the first half of this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 2.661 million and 2.6 million respectively, an increase of 1.2 times year-on-year.

　　From pressing the "pause button" for production to starting the "accelerate button" for R&D, on June 2, the world's largest tower crane was successfully rolled off the assembly line at XCMG, setting a new world record for tower crane hoisting again.

　　General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized: "The real economy is the capital of my country's development and an important support for building strategic advantages in future development. We must firmly promote industrial transformation and upgrading, strengthen independent innovation, develop high-end manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing, and integrate my country's manufacturing industry with the real economy. go up".

　　Since the beginning of this year, in the face of the complex and severe international environment and the domestic epidemic spreading from multiple points, all regions and departments have effectively coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council.

In the first half of the year, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 3.4% year-on-year, the service industry showed resilience, and the real economy showed a trend of stabilizing and rebounding, playing the role of "ballast stone" for the macroeconomic market.

Policies come out quickly

Smooth circulation, stable chain, strong main body, and the macroeconomic market is stable

　　Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic and geopolitical conflicts, the stable recovery of China's economy has been impacted, and major economic indicators have declined significantly in March and April this year.

　　In the face of the significantly increasing downward pressure on the economy, all regions and departments have strengthened their confidence, overcome difficulties, and acted quickly. A series of policies have been launched one after another to stabilize the real economy.

　　——Get through the blocking points, clear the stuck points, and race against time to ensure the smooth flow of logistics.

　　"With the unified pass, the journey went very smoothly." For two days and one night, across Hainan, Guangxi and other provinces, the truck driver Meng Guoquan pulled a carload of bananas from Hainan to Henan. "Antigen test results are available in 15 minutes, and they can be collected immediately after stopping. Go away without delay."

　　Resumption of work and production, transportation first.

Organize self-examination and self-correction, cancel unreasonable checkpoints for epidemic prevention, and make the road network smoother; promote the national unified model of vehicle passes for key material transportation, and implement closed-loop management of "collect, walk and chase" for truck drivers to make traffic more convenient; Set up "non-contact" logistics transfer venues to make the transportation of key materials more secure... Various regions and departments have successively introduced a series of measures to ensure smooth flow, open up the "large arteries" and smooth the "microcirculation".

In June, the prosperity index of China's logistics industry reached 52.1%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.

　　——We will go all out to promote the recovery of production with the chain and the chain.

　　On April 18, SAIC Lingang Passenger Vehicle Base started the pressure test for resumption of work and production; on April 19, the first vehicle under the pressure test rolled off the assembly line; from May 13, SAIC Passenger Vehicle Zhengzhou Base, Ningde Base, The Nanjing base has successively started double-shift production; on May 27, the Lingang base started a double-shift production stress test... Taking the whole vehicle enterprise as the point, it will drive the entire industry chain and the upstream and downstream of the supply chain to "chain work". In June, auto The year-on-year growth rate of the added value of the manufacturing industry turned from a decline of 7.0% in May to a substantial increase of 16.2%.

　　By promoting the resumption of work and production of key node enterprises on the chain, and promoting the smooth operation of the industrial economy with points and chains, the industrial system has solved more than 54,000 problems.

At present, industrial enterprises above designated size, including 22,500 "whitelist" enterprises from ministries and provinces, have achieved stable production, which strongly supports the stable growth of the industrial economy.

In May, the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size turned from -2.9% in April to 0.7%, and in June it increased by 3.9% year-on-year.

　　—— Implement tax rebates and delay payment of social security, and do everything possible to stabilize market players.

　　"The policy of tax reduction and fee reduction has brought 'timely rain', and the burden reduction and relief are indispensable." Wang Jun, general manager of Hangzhou Boiler Industrial Company located in Liangzhu New Town, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, calculated an account. In the first half of the year, the company enjoyed property tax, land The use tax reduction exceeded 2.6 million yuan. "All the saved tax money was invested in the research and development of new products. In the first half of the year, nearly 200 million yuan of overseas orders were received."

　　Only by keeping the main players in the market can stabilize the economic market.

The tax cuts and red envelopes are even bigger. As of July 20, the country has added more than 3 trillion yuan in new tax cuts and fee reductions and tax rebates and tax deferrals; financing costs are lower, and the country has newly issued inclusive small and micro enterprise loans in the first half of this year. The interest rate dropped by 0.35 percentage points compared with the whole year of last year... From the implementation of combined tax incentives, slow reduction of social security premiums and subsidy policies, to loan interest subsidies, property rent reductions and exemptions, various regions and departments have intensively introduced relief measures to help market players survive Difficulties, burden reduction, recovery.

Production and demand stabilized and rebounded

Strong exports, growth in investment, warmer consumption, and strong resilience of the real economy

　　In June, the electricity consumption of the whole society reached 745.1 billion kWh, and the average daily electricity consumption increased by 14.7% month-on-month; the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2%, returning to the expansion range after contracting for three consecutive months, and the prosperity continued to expand... A series of indicators show that with the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, the real economy has stabilized and rebounded, driving the economy to achieve positive growth in the second quarter.

　　——Demand has recovered, production has stabilized, and exports have rebounded strongly.

　　300 sets of equipment were delivered in batches, and XCMG excavators were popular in the North American market; electric excavators were successfully launched overseas, and Liugong led the green transformation of excavators in Indonesia and Brazil... In the first half of the year, 26 excavator manufacturers in the construction machinery industry exported a total of 51,970 excavators , a year-on-year increase of 72.2%.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the growth momentum of world trade has weakened, but my country's foreign trade has overcome the adverse effects of the tightening external environment and the impact of the epidemic, and exports have maintained rapid growth.

In the first half of the year, my country's export volume of goods increased by 13.2% year-on-year.

Among them, in May and June, the export delivery value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 11.1% and 15.1%, respectively, up 13.0 and 4.0 percentage points from the previous month, quickly reversing the downward trend of exports in April, and the export of industrial products rebounded strongly.

In June, the growth rate of export delivery value in 4 of the six major export regions accelerated. Among them, the growth rate of Shanghai's export delivery value changed from a decrease of 17.7% in May to an increase of 25.9%, a sharp rise of 43.6 percentage points.

　　With the effective implementation of a series of stabilizing growth policies, the production and demand that had been restrained in the early stage of enterprises were released faster.

In June, the enterprise production index and new order index were 52.8% and 50.4%, both rising to the expansion range; the production and business activity expectation index was 55.2%, and business confidence continued to recover.

　　——Focus on upgrading, facilitate transformation, and rapidly increase investment.

　　On Lingdingyang, the Shenzhen-Zhongshan channel is under steady construction. Zhongshan, Guangdong, and Shenzhen, which are across the sea, are in sight. In Xi'an, Shaanxi, BYD's new energy auto parts production and capacity expansion project with an investment of 15 billion yuan is under construction. It is planned to be officially launched within this year. Put into production; In Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, the construction of "East and West" has accelerated, and each data center project has changed from drawings to reality...

　　Major projects are advancing steadily.

Driven by the accelerated issuance of special bonds, in the first half of the year, infrastructure investment increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 0.4 percentage points faster than the growth rate from January to May, and rebounded for two consecutive months.

Up to now, 1.854 million 5G base stations have been built and opened nationwide, of which nearly 300,000 new base stations were added in the second quarter, realizing "5G access to every county and broadband to every village".

　　In China Miles, major projects have landed one after another.

Despite increasing downward pressure, the trend of upgrade development has not changed.

In the second quarter, 700 new "5G+Industrial Internet" national construction projects were added, and the total number has exceeded 3,100. Industrial Internet applications have covered 45 major categories of the national economy.

In the first half of the year, investment in high-tech industries increased by 20.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 14.1 percentage points higher than that of total investment. Traditional industries accelerated to expand in the direction of digitization, intelligence and greening.

　　——The vitality has recovered, the market is active, and consumption continues to warm up.

　　In Sanya, Hainan, a number of duty-free shops are crowded with customers. On the day of the "618" promotion, the sales of 4 outlying island duty-free malls in Sanya exceeded 120 million yuan;

　　On the banks of the Huangpu River, on the first day of Shanghai's dine-in resumption, the online transaction volume of in-store catering increased by 293% week-on-week, and the city's "fireworks" slowly rose.

　　The single-day passenger traffic volume of civil aviation has rebounded from 445,000 in early June to more than 1 million, and the civil aviation market has accelerated its pace of improvement.

During the "618" promotion period on the Jingdong platform, within 10 minutes, the turnover of many stores exceeded 100 million yuan, and the turnover of complete home appliance purchases increased by more than 400% year-on-year... Preliminary calculations show that in the first half of the year, the added value of the service industry was 30,486.8 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year. %.

The added value of the service industry accounted for 54.2% of the GDP, contributing 40.6% to the national economic growth, driving the GDP growth by 1.0 percentage points.

Firm confidence

Adhere to innovation, strengthen the chain and supplement the chain, and the real economy has sufficient stamina

　　In the first half of the year, manufacturing investment increased by 10.4% year-on-year, 4.3 percentage points higher than that of all investment.

Many business leaders and experts said that the complete, accurate, and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept, firm confidence, clear direction, and solid progress, will definitely promote the real economy.

　　——Insist on innovation and improve the modernization level of the industrial chain and supply chain.

　　Taiyuan, Shanxi, a snowmobile made of TG800 carbon fiber from Shanxi Gangke Co., Ltd. is slender but capable of galloping on ice. As soon as it appeared, it attracted countless fans. The first prize of the international competition in the core field; Xuzhou, Jiangsu, XCMG has developed the world's first intelligent crane manufacturing production line...

　　"Only by insisting on innovation can the modernization level of the industrial chain and supply chain be improved." Luo Junjie, director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in the second quarter, the added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.0 percentage points higher than that of all industries above designated size. The growth rate of the added value of small industries such as lithium-ion batteries, electronic components, and integrated circuits is above 20%, and the growth of new kinetic energy continues to play a leading role.

"We will continue to strengthen the supply guarantee of raw materials and key components, focus on key industrial chains such as industrial mother machines, 5G, and new-generation information technology, accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies, and focus on improving the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain."

　　——Do a good job in the manufacturing industry and build a solid foundation for the development of the real economy.

　　Two-hour orders exceeded 10,000!

On July 4, the new model jointly designed by Celis and Huawei became a "popular model" as soon as it was launched.

"We are stepping up the construction of a smart factory for the production of intelligent networked vehicles, which is expected to be officially put into operation in the second half of the year." said the relevant person in charge of Chongqing Xiaokang Group.

　　"Manufacturing is the foundation of a country and the foundation of a strong country. To grasp the real economy, we must grasp the manufacturing industry." Fu Baozong, a researcher at the China Academy of Macroeconomics, observed that in the first half of the year, investment in manufacturing drove an increase of 2.5 percentage points in total investment.

In some key industries, such as equipment manufacturing and raw material manufacturing, the investment growth rate exceeded 10%, laying a solid foundation for the development of the real economy in the future.

　　"In the next step, we must continue to focus on the key points, tackle the tough and support the weak, and make concerted progress to ensure that the manufacturing industry returns to a reasonable growth track, and at the same time, promote the gathering of talents, funds and factors to the manufacturing industry, and promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry." Fu Baozong Say.

　　——Optimize the environment, so that entrepreneurs can concentrate on the industry.

　　A good business environment is the biggest help for entrepreneurs to concentrate on their business.

At present, the "competition" of business environment in various places is still going on, in order to plant plane trees and attract golden phoenixes.

　　Shandong has included more market players in the fields of small and micro enterprises, agriculture-related, scientific and technological innovation, etc. into the scope of financial counseling, and the reserved share of government procurement to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased to 45%, which will help market players recover and develop; The provincial list of intermediaries and the list of intermediary qualifications will strictly investigate and deal with the problem of illegal charges related to enterprises in the intermediary service market, so that the bailout policy will come into effect without compromise; Guangdong has launched the reform of one license to pass, and enterprises submit materials once and complete an identity authentication, that is It can realize the synchronous circulation of materials, the simultaneous approval and the timely issuance of licenses, and create a good ecology for investment and business...

　　"Looking forward to the second half of the year, although the external environment is still complex and severe, and the real economy continues to recover steadily, there is still some pressure, but as long as we continue to efficiently coordinate epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, earnestly implement various decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee, and make every effort to open up the industry The supply chain is blocked, and the precise implementation of the bailout policy to help enterprises and stabilize the expectations of market players can promote the continuous recovery of the real economy." Fu Baozong said.

　　Our reporter Li Xinping and Han Xin