Reporter Peng Yan

　　On July 20, the central bank announced the latest loan market quoted rate (LPR) data, and the one-year LPR and the LPR of more than five years were both the same as last month.

On the same day, the mainstream housing loan interest rate data in key cities released by the Shell Research Institute showed that in 74 of the 103 key cities it monitored this month, the loan interest rates for the first and second homes have fallen to the lower limit of 4.25% for the first and 5.05% for the second. .

At the same time, the speed of bank lending has accelerated. The average lending cycle this month was 25 days, 4 days shorter than the previous month.

　　Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that the interest rate of mainstream first-home mortgages in 103 key cities monitored this month was 4.35%, and the interest rate for second-home loans was 5.07%, down 7 basis points and 2 basis points from the previous month, respectively. The high point fell by 139 basis points and 93 basis points, hitting a new low since 2019.

　　In terms of city lines, the mortgage interest rates in the third- and fourth-tier cities saw the biggest year-on-year decline, with the first- and second-family mortgage interest rates falling by 141BP and 93BP respectively.

Among them, the mortgage interest rate in Hefei has been reduced by a large margin this month, and the first mortgage interest rate has been reduced by 78BP from the previous month.

First-tier cities saw the smallest year-on-year decline in mortgage interest rates, with first- and second-home loan interest rates falling by 38BP and 30BP respectively.

Among them, Beijing ranks first in the country's top 100 cities in terms of mortgage interest rates with an interest rate of 5.0% for the first set and 5.5% for the second set.

In Shanghai, since May 20, the mainstream interest rate for the first home loan has been maintained at 4.8%, and the second home loan interest rate is 5.5%.

　　Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that the year-on-year decline in housing loan interest rates in first-tier cities is relatively small, mainly because the demand in first-tier cities has always existed.

In fact, housing prices in the central areas of first-tier cities have risen recently.

Whether the mortgage credit environment in first-tier cities will be relaxed in the future will depend on the trend of the property market.

　　In addition, cities that have lowered the down payment ratio for home purchases have continued to emerge this year.

According to the monitoring of the Shell Research Institute, 49 of the 103 cities, including Wuhan, Nanchang, Changchun, Harbin and other provincial capitals, implement a minimum 20% down payment for the first set of commercial loans.

There are 21 cities with a minimum down payment ratio of 30% or above for the first commercial loan in 100 cities, mainly municipalities directly under the Central Government and strong second-tier cities.

Overall, Beijing and Shanghai are the cities with the strictest mortgage credit environment in the country.

　　Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, said that at present, the pressure on the real estate market is still great, and there is still the possibility of lower mortgage interest rates in some cities in the future.

There are mainly two types of cities: one is big cities, whose interest rates have not been lowered much in the past, and there is relatively large room for subsequent reductions.

The other category is other cities with poor transaction data, and such cities may also be downgraded in the future to further stimulate the real estate market.

In addition, policies including down payment are also likely to be lowered and tended to be relaxed.

　　Liu Lijie, a market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, believes that low interest rates and low down payments can substantially reduce the cost of house purchases, help release housing demand, and benefit market recovery.

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said that the mortgage interest rate is related to the cost of purchasing a house and is the key to guiding the expectations of the property market.

Driven by the "double drop" of mortgage interest rates in May, the recent decline in mortgage interest rates has accelerated.

This is also one of the important reasons why real estate sales showed signs of recovery in June.

　　Liu Lijie said that under the assumption that the LPR and point-adding rules will remain unchanged in the short term, there is still room for housing loan interest rates to fall, but the space is narrowed. It is expected that the overall housing loan interest rate level will gradually approach the lower limit in the third quarter.

　　"The real estate market has room for further stabilization and recovery. In particular, low interest rates and various loose home purchase policies will help promote the development of the real estate market." Yan Yuejin said.

　　In Wang Qing's view, with the moderate relaxation of various regulatory policies under the city-specific policies and the continuous reduction of mortgage interest rates, the property market may recover in a trend around the end of the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rates of real estate sales, construction, investment and other data are expected to stop falling one after another. pick up.

(Securities Daily)