"Rice Bags" and "Vegetable Baskets" Sufficient Supply of Energy and Bulk Commodities to Ensure Supply and Stable Prices
Looking at the stability of China's economy from the perspective of price stability
Our reporter Xue Peng
"We won another bumper harvest from last year's high base!" On July 20, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Zeng Yande, chief agronomist and director of the Development Planning Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced that this year's summer grain output was 294.8 billion catties, an increase of 2.87 billion over last year. catty.
Among them, the output of wheat was 271.5 billion catties, an increase of 2.57 billion catties.
The bumper harvest of summer grain has laid the foundation for a bumper grain harvest throughout the year, and it has also provided support for stabilizing prices and expectations, increasing confidence, and stabilizing the broader economic market.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in the first half of the year, my country's prices continued to operate within a reasonable range, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by an average of 1.7%, which was significantly lower than that of other major economies, in sharp contrast to high international inflation.
According to expert analysis, looking forward to the second half of the year, my country's prices may continue to rise moderately, with a solid foundation to ensure stable supply and prices, and be able to achieve the expected target of an annual CPI increase of around 3%.
How do you view the current price situation in my country?
What is China's confidence to keep prices running at a reasonable range?
The reporter interviewed experts and scholars such as Professor Liu Zhibiao of Nanjing University and Professor Wang Jian of University of International Business and Economics.
Inflation in the world's major economies intensifies, and Europe and the United States impose indiscriminate sanctions on Russia to increase their own inflation
Since the beginning of this year, the price level of the world's major economies has continued to rise and hit the highest level in a row.
On July 13, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the U.S. CPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year in June this year, the highest in nearly 41 years. The inflation rate in the euro zone reached a record high of 8.6% in June on an annualized basis; the inflation rate in the United Kingdom reached 9.1% in May, a 40-year high.
In addition to developed countries, the inflation rate in Turkey, Argentina, Brazil and other countries has reached double digits.
Analysis believes that the important factor causing this round of inflation is the sharp rise in international energy and food prices.
"The United States and Western countries imposed severe sanctions on Russia's energy exports, which led to a surge in international oil prices. At the same time, due to geopolitical conflicts and the unstable situation, the prices of bulk agricultural products fluctuated sharply, causing a series of cost increases." Liu Zhibiao analyzed.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin pointed out at a regular press conference on July 20 that the U.S., as the initiator of the Ukraine crisis, has been arguing over the Ukrainian crisis, exacerbating conflicts, wielding the stick of sanctions, and engaging in economic coercion, which not only undermined the state-to-state relationship. The normal exchanges between the two countries violated the general rules of international trade and led to the complication and expansion of the Ukrainian crisis.
At present, the world stock market, foreign exchange market, crude oil, natural gas, grain and non-ferrous metal futures markets continue to fluctuate repeatedly, causing people in all countries, especially those in developing countries with weak economic foundations, to suffer.
The rising food and energy prices in the United States have made the American people miserable, and American consumer sentiment has fallen to the lowest point since 1952.
In the face of persistent high inflation pressure, many central banks around the world chose to raise interest rates.
On June 15, the US Federal Reserve announced to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, which is the largest rate hike by the Fed since 1994, showing the urgency of controlling inflation.
On July 21, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting and decided to raise the three key interest rates in the euro zone by 50 basis points. This is the first time the European Central Bank has raised interest rates since 2011.
The means to adjust the economy are mainly the use of fiscal policy and monetary policy.
Wang Jian told reporters that in the face of inflationary pressure, the U.S. government increased currency issuance on the one hand, and raised interest rates on the other hand. The increase in interest rates would suppress some consumption and at the same time guide investment to flow to the United States. The effect remains to be seen.
Some studies believe that the US dollar interest rate hike will further interfere with global capital flows, damage other countries' production and supply to the United States, and at the same time increase domestic production costs, further strengthening the trend of US domestic industries from real to virtual.
Nonfarm productivity plummeted at an annualized rate of 7.5% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest level since the third quarter of 1947, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
According to Wang Jian's analysis, the continued growth of China's exports under the epidemic has a certain relationship with the increased demand for consumer goods in the United States and Europe under high inflation.
In particular, the United States, as a big country in consumer goods, has huge demand in this regard.
While China also faces the impact of rising raw material and energy prices, the production of basic daily necessities and consumer goods has a solid foundation.
China's massive exports of consumer goods have moderated the rise in global inflation to a certain extent.
Strengthening efforts to ensure supply and price stability, energy supply is basically stable, and the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable.
China's economy is closely linked with the world economy, and rising international commodity prices will objectively increase imported inflationary pressures.
Since the beginning of this year, my country's oil prices and other commodity prices have been adjusted many times, which is the manifestation of this impact.
In the face of global inflationary pressure, my country is determined not to engage in "flooding"-style strong stimulus, and to scientifically grasp the strength, rhythm and focus of policies to ensure adequate supply and stable prices of important commodities for people's livelihood and basic energy.
In Wang Jian's view, one of the important reasons for China's relatively stable prices is that the domestic efforts to ensure supply and price stability have continued to increase, and energy supply has been basically stable.
"The prices of energy sources such as water, electricity and gas are basically stable. As the country has improved the production and sales mechanism for key livelihood commodities, agricultural products that are closely related to people's lives have not increased significantly except for a few special nodes."
In the first half of the year, the supply of key varieties of "rice bags" and "vegetable baskets" in my country was sufficient, and the overall price fluctuations were not large, which provided important support for coping with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and keeping prices basically stable.
From January to June, the "Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 127.96, 2.49 points higher than the same period last year.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, food prices fell by 0.4% year-on-year in the first half of this year, affecting a 0.08% drop in the CPI.
In terms of energy, my country continues to increase coal production and supply, improve the coal market price formation mechanism, guide coal prices to operate within a reasonable range, stabilize electricity prices and energy costs by stabilizing coal prices, and maintain electricity and gas prices for residents. Basically stable.
In the first half of the year, the national industrial producer price (PPI) growth continued to fall.
"Generally speaking, the results of price stabilization work in the first half of the year were hard-won, reflecting the remarkable achievements in the construction of the production, supply, storage and sales system of important commodities for people's livelihood and key bulk commodities in my country, and the work system for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices has become more complete." National Development and Reform Commission Price Director Wan Jinsong said at a media briefing.
The basic stability of the RMB exchange rate is also an important reason for the smooth operation of prices.
"my country adheres to a prudent monetary policy and does not engage in 'big water release', which has kept China's price level in a reasonable operating range, which is in sharp contrast with the high inflation level abroad." Wang Jian said that the internationalization of the renminbi, frequent depreciation and Appreciation is not good. Enhancing the world's confidence in China's economy and trade requires the stability of the exchange rate and other aspects. We have basically achieved this.
Industry insiders said that under the influence of factors such as the high adjustment of the US dollar index, the continued easing of the domestic epidemic, and the increased confidence in economic growth, the depreciation pressure of the RMB exchange rate has been released, and the short-term signs of the dollar exchange rate have stopped falling. The exchange rate remained basically stable and supported.
With the effective coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the epidemic prevention and control in key regions has achieved positive results, and the effects of economic stabilization policies have been gradually released. In June, the economy achieved rapid stabilization and recovery.
A developing China will play an important role in maintaining the normal operation of global industrial and supply chains and stabilizing world food security.
Stabilizing prices is not only a need for people's livelihood security, but also the main focus of stabilizing the fundamentals of economic growth in the second half of the year
In the first half of the year, due to the complex and severe international environment and the impact of the domestic epidemic, economic growth was affected to a certain extent.
However, China's economy is very resilient. In the first half of the year, the gross domestic product (GDP) was 56,264.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% at constant prices.
Among them, the GDP in the second quarter was 29,246.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.
"From the perspective of the next stage, the risk of stagflation in the global economy is currently on the rise, and there are still many unstable and uncertain factors in the recovery of the domestic economy. However, China's economy has strong resilience and great potential, and the basic characteristics of long-term improvement have not changed." July 15 , Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, pointed out when answering a reporter's question.
"For the evolution of the international situation, we must be fully psychologically and strategically prepared. In the midst of great changes unseen in the world in a century, my country must insist on doing its own thing well, continue to deepen its internal and external opening, and insist on building a large-scale domestic economy. A new development pattern in which the cycle is the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promote each other." Liu Zhibiao pointed out.
Great power economies are resilient.
Data show that in the first half of the year, my country's total economic volume reached 56 trillion yuan, of which the industrial added value was close to 20 trillion yuan, the service industry added value exceeded 30 trillion yuan, the total investment in fixed assets exceeded 27 trillion yuan, and the total retail sales of consumer goods It has declined, but it still exceeds 21 trillion yuan.
The scale of my country's economy is still considerable, and the solid material foundation accumulated over a long period of time and the advantages of super large market scale are obvious.
These have increased our confidence and confidence in dealing with various risks and challenges.
Prices are an important signal in the national economic system, and stable prices result in a stable economy.
Wan Jinsong said that the wheat harvested this year has high yield and good quality, and the production capacity of live pigs is generally reasonable and sufficient.
"After entering the flood season, the supply of fresh and live commodities in some areas may be affected to a certain extent, and the influence of international imported factors may continue, but the supply capacity of my country's commodities and services is generally sufficient, and the market is increasing efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices. , the price is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend." Fu Linghui said.
After the practice of responding to the epidemic and the practice of supplying daily necessities and responding to the impact of large fluctuations in international commodity prices, the work system for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices in various regions has gradually been improved, the plans have gradually matured, the control methods have become more abundant, and the coordination and cooperation between departments and regions is efficient. Further improvement, the emergency control capacity has been significantly enhanced.
Looking forward to the latter part of this year, my country's grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables and other important livelihood commodities have stable production and sufficient supply, especially with the large number of seasonal fresh agricultural products on the market, the market supply will continue to increase. The regional transportation capacity has been significantly enhanced, and there is a solid foundation for stabilizing consumer prices. The domestic CPI will continue to operate within a reasonable range, and the expected target of about 3% for the year can be achieved.
China is an important link in the international industrial chain and supply chain, providing a strong impetus for the recovery of the world economy
Entering July, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has been implemented for more than half a year.
At present, among the 15 signatory member states of RCEP, the number of effective members has reached 13. The "friend circle" of RCEP member states has continued to expand, and trade dividends have continued to be released.
Data show that in the first half of this year, my country and RCEP member countries had a total import and export of 6.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, accounting for 30.5% of my country's total foreign trade import and export value.
The Chinese economy is a sea. The complete industrial system and the new space opened up by the digital economy and green industries have provided a strong impetus for the development of the world economy and attracted foreign investment to cast a vote of confidence in the Chinese economy.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from January to May this year, China's actual use of foreign capital was 564.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%.
In the first four months, 185 large-scale projects with contracted foreign capital of more than US$100 million were newly added, which is equivalent to an average of 1.5 large-scale foreign-funded projects landing every day.
While attracting foreign investment, China strives to maintain the stable operation of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
Since May, facing the downward pressure on the economy, the Chinese government has taken a series of rapid and decisive measures to actively expand domestic demand, ensure smooth logistics, promote the stability of industrial and supply chains, and ensure economic growth.
The pace of resumption of work and production by manufacturing enterprises has accelerated significantly, and the industrial economy has shown signs of stabilization and improvement.
The data shows that from January to June this year, the China-Europe trains operated a total of 7,514 trains and sent 724,000 TEUs. The number of trains operated in a single month maintained more than 1,000 trains for 26 consecutive months, becoming a "stabilizer" and "acceleration valve" for smooth China-Europe trade. Bring new opportunities for development to countries and regions along the route.
On July 19, China and the EU held the ninth China-EU High-level Economic and Trade Dialogue, expressing that they will jointly ensure the safety and smoothness of trade channels, including the China-Europe freight train, and enhance communication and exchanges in the field of industrial and supply chains.
Liu Zhibiao believes that it is necessary to adhere to and increase the intensity of opening up to the outside world, break down institutional barriers to the flow of factor resources and commodities and restrictions on industrial entry, allow free flow of capital and technology, and allow innovation and wisdom to fully emerge; it is necessary to speed up the construction of a unified national market, especially It is to accelerate the pace of the market-oriented reform of factors, so as to support the effective role of the super-large market in stimulating innovation, supporting growth, strengthening the division of labor, absorbing resources, and promoting circulation; it is necessary to focus on breaking through the card points of industrial technology under the leadership of the state. , blocking point.
"Faced with the impact of the current high cost, it is necessary to accelerate technological progress, improve innovation capabilities, increase investment in human capital, and absorb rising costs through the improvement of productivity, so as to build China's competitiveness and create a high-quality Chinese economy. The development path will continue to provide a strong engine for the global economy." Liu Zhibiao said.