China News Service, July 22. Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a press conference on foreign exchange receipts and payments in the first half of 2022 held by the State Council Information Office on the 22nd that since this year, the face of more complex and severe No matter from the price indicators related to the RMB exchange rate, or from the quantitative indicators such as the balance of payments, foreign-related receipts and payments, we can clearly see the characteristics of my country's foreign exchange market's enhanced resilience.

Specifically:

　　First of all, the RMB exchange rate has become more flexible and has performed steadily globally.

Since the beginning of this year, affected by multiple factors such as interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical conflicts, the main line of changes in the international foreign exchange market has been the strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening of major non-US currencies.

In this context, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has depreciated, but compared with the major international currencies, the stability of the RMB value is relatively strong.

Judging from the rise of the US dollar index and the decline of other major currencies, as of yesterday, the US dollar index has risen by more than 11% this year, and the depreciation of the euro, the pound and the yen against the US dollar is between 10% and 17%. The dollar depreciated 5.8%.

From the perspective of multilateral exchange rates, the RMB exchange rate index appreciated by 0.1%, indicating that the RMB remained basically stable against a basket of currencies.

From the perspective of exchange rate expectations, indicators related to foreign exchange forwards and options show that there is no obvious appreciation or depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, and market players generally maintain a rational and orderly trading model.

Judging from the recent performance, although the US dollar has further strengthened, the stability of the RMB exchange rate among the world's major currencies has become more prominent as the domestic economy stabilizes and rebounds.

The multilateral exchange rate has risen steadily since July.

　　Secondly, my country's cross-border capital flow is generally stable, showing a relatively balanced development trend.

In the first half of this year, both foreign-related receipts and payments on behalf of customers and banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales showed a certain scale surplus. Recently, there have been short-term fluctuations and seasonal changes in individual channels, but the overall pattern of cross-border capital flows is basically balanced, reflecting my country's international income Robustness of the branch structure.

　　Third, the current account surplus and long-term capital inflows are still the fundamentals for stabilizing my country's cross-border capital flows.

On the one hand, the current account maintains a reasonable surplus.

The current account surplus in the first quarter of this year was US$88.9 billion, the highest in history, up 25% over the same period last year, and the ratio to GDP was 2.1%, within a reasonable range.

In the second quarter, the surplus in trade in goods was relatively high, and the deficit in trade in services such as cross-border travel was running at a low level. It is preliminarily judged that the current account will continue to maintain a reasonable surplus.

On the other hand, direct investment under the capital account and medium- and long-term asset allocation funds are still playing a leading role.

my country's long-term economic development prospects are improving, and the market environment has been continuously improved, which has continued to attract capital inflows for the purpose of direct investment and medium- and long-term asset allocation.

From January to May this year, the actual use of foreign capital was 87.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 23%; the performance of foreign central banks and allocated funds tracking international indexes in my country's bond market was relatively stable, which played a role in balancing short-term fluctuations in cross-border capital.

　　Wang Chunying said that in general, my country is more efficient in coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, with good economic resilience, ample potential, and large room for maneuver, which has laid a good foundation for the smooth operation of my country's foreign exchange market, and will be more capable of dealing with external changes in the environment.

(Zhongxin Finance)