In this summer of 2022, France and a good part of Europe are blazing under heat waves.
Episodes that repeat themselves more and more over the years.
A trend that could profoundly change summer tourism?
To find out, we rode a DeLorean in 2050, where Norway and Scotland became the top destinations for July-August.
Thirty years from now, will freshness become the unavoidable trend, or is the Mediterranean still resisting the hype of cold?
By car !
From our special correspondent in the future,
“Ha that's for sure, we're better off dying in the heat here than in Nice”.
On July 19, 2050, Peter Miran is jubilant as a happy and fulfilled father: he has managed to take his whole family on a trip to Oslo and its 22°C average temperature, which makes it one of the most popular destinations for scorching summers of this half-century.
Just imagine: we can go for a walk in the afternoon!
The guy even pushes the delirium to the end and extends the pleasure to the Lofoten Islands, in the far north of the country, where the temperature does not exceed 10°C.
Feeling the cold, a thrill that has become trendy in the summers of 2050. If in 2022, Peter, then a teenager, taunted his friends with photos of his legs tanning at the beach like sausages, his son, Dylan, sends photos of his goosebumps.
Because freshness has become a major tourist asset, even essential.
Which doesn't surprise Dominique Lecea, director of consulting activities at In Extenso Tourisme Culture et Hôtellerie, which we joined in 2022*: "Just as air conditioning was a selling point for rentals seasonal or summer hotels in the 2000s, some tourist areas use their climate to attract tourists".
Fresh, a tourist love for a long time
No need to leave France for that: “With the rise in temperatures, the map of tourist destinations is changing.
Normandy, Brittany or the Hauts de France could become the most visited regions of the country”, predicted the expert thirty years ago *.
In 2022, the American daily
The New York Times
caused a sensation by placing Normandy in its annual list of 52 tourist destinations, the only French region mentioned.
Fresh,
the new place to be
.
The new?
Not really.
"Since the 19th century, freshness has been a sought-after tourist product in summer in Europe," said Clotide Luquiau*, geographer and specialist in relations between societies and their environment.
Even in the first quarter of the 21st century, in the summer of 2022, it was not uncommon to see people from Nice going to the mountains to spend a milder holiday in terms of the heat, or many Germans going to Norway.
»
Paradise destinations turned into a nightmare
Dylan seems happy in the Scandinavian morning breeze, even if he too would have liked to stroll along the edge of the Mediterranean, like his parents in their youth.
But with 45°C in Nice and 39 in Montpellier in July, the experience quickly turns out to be unpleasant.
As for Greece and its 53°C in Athens, it looks more like a nightmare than a heavenly destination.
As early as 2006, a report to the French government from the TEC (Tourism, transport, territories, environment, advice) noted an increase in the number of tourists in Normandy, Picardy and Lorraine during the heat wave of 2003, and a neglect of the South.
More interestingly, the report noted an “aftershock” the following year, in 2004, with fewer southern tourists than in previous years.
The latter were wary of a potential new heat wave.
Today,
Especially since with climate change, strong restrictions have been introduced: the use of air conditioners, which are ultra-energy-intensive, has notably been considerably reduced.
"Finally, going cool also means traveling green: we stop asking the environment to adapt to us, we adapt by going where the environment is bearable", pleads Peter, decidedly delighted to his choice.
An omnipresent hell
But climate change is capricious: supposedly hot regions are not the only ones to flare up.
A heat wave is currently hitting Iceland, with peaks of 42°C.
Warmer than in Montpellier, therefore.
“Climate change is not a linear rise in temperature in all regions of the globe, it is also violent episodes – fire, heat wave, flood – which can disrupt any ecosystem anywhere in the world.
No tourist destination is preserved, or cannot guarantee a bearable climate”, was alarmed * Elise Naccarato, climate manager at Oxfam France, in 2022.
The solution ?
Buy tickets at the last moment, or pray hard.
As early as 2004, the French were booking their holidays later in order to adapt to heat waves.
“We are lucky, abounds Peter.
Friends left last summer for Oslo, it was 37." He remembers the summer of 2022 very well, when Brittany was roasting at 39°C, especially in Brest: "At that time, we understood that there was no longer a permanent cool refuge.
»
45°C in the shade, so what?
However, some destinations have become even more complex than others.
Andalusia under 48°C?
It's no thanks for Peter.
To the great regret of his wife Natacha, who would have gone to visit the Alhambra far from the coldness of Oslo: “We are still in the prime of life, we can bear these heats if it is to see pretty landscapes “, wishes the fifty.
This was already one of the hypotheses of the TEC report: tourism in the hottest regions is becoming rare and concerns only healthy people.
Going to Spain or Italy is now a luxury: that of being in good health.
Natacha has all the more reason to be sad that despite its blazing sun, Spain remains one of the most visited countries in the world.
What Caroline Blondy, a geographer specializing in tourism and the environment, envisioned three decades ago *: “The flagship tourist destinations are not made solely on natural criteria or temperatures.
There are unpleasant climates where some travelers like to go”.
And to recall, at the beginning of the century, the hikes in the desert in the Maghreb.
Questions beyond temperatures
“Yes, destinations change over time, but the climate is not necessarily the cause,” she continued.
Heat can please, at least not constrain.
The TEC report, again: if there is a desired minimum temperature (18°C in 2006), there is not necessarily a maximum, even if some tourism experts mention an initial limit of 33°C.
"People adapt: they get up earlier, go to indoor and cool places... The heat is not prohibitive on vacation", developed the expert.
A place can become touristy for many reasons, independent of its comfort.
Take Saint-Tropez,
the place to be
in the 1970s. In absolute terms, it's small, not very accessible, the beaches aren't incredible.
"But the destination became famous following the films of the New Wave taking place within it", recalled Caroline Blondy.
The same goes for 2050, where Albania's capital Tirana is fueling up after hosting the filming of the 23rd
Avengers
(people's favorite).
And who cares if it is 44°C every summer, the city is now one of the most visited in Europe after refreshing Oslo, Minsk, Edinburgh and Helsinki.
A lover of extreme cold, Peter even intends to break the rule and go to the Albanian city next year.
Tourism has its reasons that the thermometer ignores.
*
You will have understood, since we are here in an anticipation article, these quotes are taken from 2022.
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