CPI of 31 provinces released in June: Shanghai's price increase alone fell, how much did your hometown increase?
China-Singapore Jingwei, July 20 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in June 2022.
China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that in June, the year-on-year CPI growth rate of 30 provinces was higher than that of the previous month, and only Shanghai's growth rate fell.
Among them, the highest in Guangdong rose 3.1%, and the lowest in Xinjiang rose 1.7%.
Image source: National Bureau of Statistics website
Guangdong and Heilongjiang enter the "3" era
Shanghai rises alone
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in June 2022, the national CPI was flat month-on-month, up 2.5% year-on-year, and the year-on-year increase reached a new high since August 2020.
China-Singapore Jingwei combing found that the CPI of 31 provinces increased year-on-year in June, with 14 and 12 provinces with increases higher or lower than the national level, respectively, and 10 and 16 in May.
In addition, it is worth noting that the increase in 30 provinces in June was higher than that of the previous month, and only the increase in Shanghai fell.
According to the Shanghai Bureau of Statistics, since late March, the short-term imbalance between supply and demand under the influence of the epidemic has led to a rapid rise in food prices, driving the CPI to rise by 2.2% year-on-year in March.
Under the static control of the whole region, the prices of all kinds of fresh food further increased, and the year-on-year increase in April and May expanded to 4.3% and 4.6%.
In June, the impact of the epidemic weakened, and the increase fell back to 2.9%.
Specifically, 14 provinces, including Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Shanxi, Jilin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Ningxia, Qinghai, Fujian, Sichuan, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, and Anhui, rose above the national level, among which Guangdong and Heilongjiang entered the "3" era; Hunan, Hubei, Liaoning, Shaanxi, and Beijing rose at the same level as the national level; Gansu, Jiangsu, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tianjin, Hebei, Hainan, Shandong, Henan, Chongqing, Tibet, Xinjiang and other 12 provinces rose lower than the national level, of which Tibet, Xinjiang remains in the "1 era".
In addition, in terms of growth rate, five provinces including Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Sichuan, and Guizhou increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year; four provinces including Heilongjiang, Hunan, Yunnan, and Hainan increased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year; Ningxia, Gansu, Xinjiang, and Jiangxi increased by 0.7 percentage points. In other four provinces, the year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points.
In terms of the increase in May, the largest increase in Tibet was 0.5 percentage points.
The team of Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, pointed out that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in June was slightly stronger than the seasonality.
There are three reasons behind it: First, in the food category, the prices of pork and edible oil continued to rise.
Second, the energy-related sub-items continue to rise, which has a strong driving effect on the CPI, and has not yet reflected the impact of the recent adjustment of international oil prices.
Third, the performance of service prices was stronger than the seasonality, which boosted the core CPI to increase slightly stronger than the seasonality.
What is the future trend of CPI?
Judging from institutional forecasts, the CPI will continue to rise year-on-year, and it has become a consensus that some months in the second half of the year will enter the "3 era".
The research report of Zhao Wei's team of China National Finance Corporation pointed out that driven by the start of the pig cycle and cost transmission, the CPI may accelerate in the third quarter, and the high point may be around 3%, or even higher.
Northeast Securities believes that if the price of pigs continues to rise, the CPI center in the third and fourth quarters will rise significantly compared with the first half of the year, and the probability of CPI "breaking 3" in a single month in September and December is high.
However, if the pig price is still repeated in the follow-up, the impact of pig price on the CPI will be more controllable. In September, the CPI "breaks 3", but the CPI is relatively stable in the rest of the month.
The Guosheng Macro Bear Park team predicts that the CPI may fluctuate upwards year-on-year, the annual center may rise to about 2.4%, and the high point may exceed 3% or even touch 3.5%.
On July 14, Wan Jinsong, director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at a media briefing that in the second half of this year, due to factors such as high international inflation, the Ukrainian crisis, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic, my country's price operation faces uncertain and unstable factors. There are still many, but we have the confidence, confidence and ability to continue to keep prices within a reasonable range, and the expected CPI target of around 3% for the whole year is achievable.
(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)
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