Guaranteed coal supply companies welcome the "mid-term exam" of the China and Long-term Association, will there be a shortage of electricity this summer?

　　During the peak period of power supply guarantee in summer, coal companies usher in the "mid-term examination" of the China-Long-term Association.

　　Shell Finance reporters learned from multiple channels that the National Development and Reform Commission recently held a video conference on re-signing and re-signing of medium- and long-term thermal coal contracts in 2022, proposing that three 100% requirements for medium- and long-term thermal coal contracts this year must be achieved.

　　The medium-to-long-term coal contract is the so-called "medium-long-term association", which is regarded as the "ballast stone" of the coal market, and also plays the role of "main force" in ensuring the demand for coal in key livelihood areas such as power generation and heating.

The China Long-term Association generally signs once a year, and the price range is agreed. The specific contract price of each month is implemented according to factors such as calorific value, transportation distance, transportation method, and other miscellaneous expenses.

　　"The main content of (the July 1 meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission) is the emphasis and inspection of some policies at the beginning of the year, including the price range policy." Yankuang Energy (600188.SH) told Shell Finance reporters on July 12.

　　Thermal power generation is still the main force in ensuring social electricity consumption. Since June, the power load of many provincial power grids has hit a record high.

Shell Finance reporters have noticed that Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places have successively introduced orderly electricity consumption plans.

Will we run out of electricity this summer?

Guaranteed supply

The grid load in many places has hit a new high, and

　　Recently, the high temperature hit, and the power load of Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong and other provinces hit a record high.

Shell Finance reporters have noticed that Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and other places have successively introduced orderly electricity consumption plans.

　　On June 21, the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology issued the "2022 Shanghai Peak Season Summer Orderly Electricity Consumption Plan". It is estimated that in 2022, the highest load of Shanghai's power grid will occur during the peak summer electricity consumption in July and August, which is about 35 million kW, the highest load is a net increase of 1.47 million kW compared with 2021, an increase of 4.38%.

　　The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Information Technology proposed that, in accordance with the municipal government's "three guarantees and one insistence" (to ensure that residents' domestic electricity consumption is not affected, to ensure the electricity needs of important users, to ensure the safety and order of urban operation and the power grid, and to insist that power curtailment will not be affected) The principle of electricity supply), adhere to the bottom line of not opening the gates when the electricity is cut off, and not restricting the civil electricity when the electricity is cut off, and taking ensuring the safety of the summer as the primary task.

　　Song Xiangqing, deputy dean of the Institute of Government Management of Beijing Normal University and director of the Industrial Economics Research Center, told reporters that this year's peak summer is facing three pressures. First, the temperature in many places is on the high side, and electricity peaks come early, fast, and violently; second It is the acceleration of the resumption of work and production and the resumption of the market, and the growth rate of industrial electricity consumption has accelerated.

　　How's the electricity supply going this summer?

A number of industry insiders told Shell Finance reporters that due to the institutionalized guidance of the coal power market in my country in recent years, coupled with the rapid growth of green new energy production, it is expected that the peak summer power supply can basically meet the market needs.

　　"When the fuel is adequately guaranteed and the water supply situation is good, my country's power supply capacity can generally meet the demand for power consumption." Jiang Debin, deputy director of the Data and Statistics Center of the China Electricity Council, said at a press conference on July 6, In order to ensure the stable supply of energy and electricity, power generation companies still go all out to purchase thermal coal despite high coal prices and large-scale losses. At present, coal storage in power plants is relatively high.

At the same time, the meteorological department predicts that the water situation will be better this summer, which is conducive to hydropower production.

In addition, some key projects such as supporting power sources and transmission lines have been put into operation one after another.

　　As for the thermal power industry, the main force of power supply, according to the statistics of China Electricity Council, the coal inventory of power plants has basically reached the peak before summer. The coal inventory of coal-fired power plants was 96.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.6%, and the available days of thermal coal inventory was 22.4 days.

　　Under the expectation of the overall balance of power supply and demand, experts such as Song Xiangqing believe that it is not ruled out that there may be power shortages in some areas.

　　"As far as the whole country is concerned, the power supply and demand can be maintained in a balanced and stable state in general. In particular, there will be no large-scale power outages for residents' living electricity. However, it is undeniable that the regional structural imbalance between coal power supply and demand may still exist. The problem of tight power supply and demand during peak hours will also occur in some cities." Song Xiangqing told reporters that the pressure on the power supply chain in the central and western regions and the northeast region is not large, the supply and demand are basically balanced, and some provinces may have surplus; eastern and southern provinces The power supply chain will still be tight during peak periods, and the contradiction between power supply and demand during peak hours is inevitable. It cannot be ruled out that some cities need to achieve a balance between supply and demand by reducing production and limiting production in high-energy-consuming industries.

stable price

Guaranteed coal supply companies welcome the "mid-term exam" of the Long-term Association

　　At the current peak electricity consumption period in summer, the signing of the long-term association of coal supply companies is ushering in the "mid-term examination".

　　Shell Finance reporters learned from multiple channels that the National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on the renewal and re-signing of medium- and long-term thermal coal contracts in 2022 on July 1, and once again emphasized the signing of long-term and medium-term coal enterprises.

　　"The signing of the China-long-term association of coal enterprises is a continuous work." Yu Guangjun, an economics researcher at the Inner Mongolia Academy of Social Sciences, told Shell Finance reporter, emphasizing that the China-long-term association aims to stabilize the market, from the perspective of resource management and transaction relations, gradually The raw material end forms a market state that can provide stable supply.

　　"The signal released by the China and Long-term Association to the enterprise can be summed up in eight words: increase production, stabilize supply, guarantee price, and win-win." Song Xiangqing told Shell Finance reporter that medium and long-term contracts can take into account the interests of coal companies, electricity companies and transportation companies. It is of great significance to ensure the supply and price of the coal power market, and to meet the peak in summer and winter, and ensure my country's energy security.

　　The reporter learned that, according to the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission, this year, the medium and long-term thermal coal contracts must achieve three 100% - all localities need to sign 100% of the thermal coal supply tasks determined in the "Coal Safety and Supply Responsibility Letter", and all coal for power generation and heating. Medium and long-term contracts; all medium and long-term thermal coal contracts are 100% fulfilled; all medium and long-term thermal coal contracts are 100% implemented according to the price policy.

　　In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Coal Trading Center held the fourth training video conference on the operation of the platform system for re-signing and re-signing of medium and long-term contracts for thermal coal on July 7.

The center proposes to ensure that the number of medium and long-term contracts signed by coal production enterprises should reach more than 80% of their own resources, and that the annual coal consumption of power generation and heating enterprises should be fully covered by medium and long-term contracts after deducting imported coal.

　　China Shenhua (601088.SH), Power Investment Energy (002128.SZ), Jizhong Energy (000937.SZ), Jinkong Coal Industry (601001.SH) and many other listed coal companies all told Shell Finance reporters that because companies Since the beginning of this year, the signing of the long-term association has been carried out in accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission.

　　"The main content of (the July 1 meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission) is the emphasis and inspection of some policies at the beginning of the year, including the price range policy." Yankuang Energy (600188.SH) told reporters that the meeting of the National Development and Reform Commission was not a new policy. In the early stage, the company has signed the contract in accordance with the established requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission.

　　China Shenhua also told the Shell Finance reporter that the company's self-produced coal sales have always been based on long-term agreements. At the beginning of the year, it has signed a sufficient number of long-term agreements according to the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission. too big.

　　In 2021, affected by multiple factors such as tightening international energy supply and faster-than-expected economic recovery, the domestic coal market once experienced a sharp rise in prices. In 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to continued high coal prices.

In this context, the National Development and Reform Commission has successively issued the "Notice on Further Improving the Coal Market Price Formation Mechanism" and the "Announcement on Clarifying the Price Gouging Behavior of Operators in the Coal Field", which will be implemented on May 1.

　　The above-mentioned documents stipulate the reasonable range of thermal coal long-term agreement and spot price respectively, requiring the medium and long-term transaction price of 5,500 kcal launched thermal coal to run at 570-770 yuan / ton, and the corresponding spot price shall not exceed 150% of the long-term agreement upper limit. That is 855-1155 yuan / ton.

　　Lin Jingwei, a black researcher at Jinxin Futures, told Shell Finance reporters that paying close attention to the long-term cooperation in thermal coal will help the market to form an expectation of price stability, and at the same time, it can reduce speculation and avoid violent price fluctuations again.

Lin Jingwei believes that there was indeed a hard gap in the coal supply in the second half of last year, and speculative funds played a role in amplifying the gap, which led to the push up of coal prices. This year, the market supply and demand situation has returned to a tight balance, and the expected guidance of the regulatory authorities can effectively stabilize the gap. price effect.

　　Yu Guangjun also believes that the core role of the China Long-term Association is to improve the stability of transactions. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the three 100%, and the focus is also to ensure that the energy supply is in a relatively balanced state, to avoid the occurrence of peak electricity consumption. non-compliance.

Grooming

It is still difficult for China and the long-term cooperation to control prices, how to ease the inversion of coal and electricity prices

　　Shell Finance reporter learned that among the three 100% requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission for medium and long-term thermal coal contracts, compared with 100% signing and 100% contract performance, the implementation of "all medium and long-term thermal coal contracts are 100% implemented according to the price policy" is still in progress. Not ideal.

　　A coal industry analyst who did not want to be named told Shell Finance that, according to his understanding, the results of a nationwide coal price regulation and supervision policy pull-net survey conducted by the National Development and Reform Commission in June showed that the proportion of medium and long-term contracts signed within a reasonable price range was 76%, there is still a big gap from the requirements.

　　"The National Development and Reform Commission has previously issued a guide price for thermal coal. Some companies may sign a long-term agreement price that does not meet the requirements of this guide price and need to re-sign as required." A person from a listed coal company told Shell Finance reporters.

　　The content of the training publicly held by the National Coal Exchange Center for coal enterprises (it also shows that according to policy requirements, coal enterprises must not increase the sales price of coal in a disguised form by unreasonably increasing logistics costs, etc.; contracts whose prices exceed a reasonable range must be Before the 8th of March, we will promptly change the contract according to the price policy, and adjust and improve the price information on the platform of the National Coal Trading Center to ensure that the execution price of medium and long-term contracts is within a reasonable range.

　　"Coal is different from general commodities. It is a special resource that involves people's livelihood. The China-Longevity Association mechanism is a means of government regulation. If the market economy is completely relied on, the market signal may fail." Management of Beijing Energy Research Institute Jiao Jingping, technical director of Consulting Co., Ltd., told Shell Finance reporters.

　　Shell Finance reporter learned that in addition to the reasonable price range stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission, the specific long-term coal purchase price should be comprehensively determined based on calorific value, transportation distance, transportation mode, and other miscellaneous charges.

　　"Signing a long-term agreement can exclude market speculation, but it does not mean that the same fixed price is executed. The specific price will still be affected by the normal supply and demand factors in the market and fluctuate." Inner Mongolia Huadian (600863.SH) told reporters.

　　Why is price control still a difficult point in the implementation of the China Long-term Association?

　　Some people in the industry told Shell Finance reporters that supervision is different from that of the government. For local governments, especially the governments where coal is mainly produced, the coal industry, as the backbone of the local economy, has highlighted its contribution to GDP in the context of economic downturn, which has led to Local governments lack incentives for price regulation.

　　The long-standing problem of coal power price inversion in my country is often considered to be the main factor affecting the enthusiasm of thermal power companies to generate electricity.

In order to solve this problem, there have been frequent recent developments in the reform of electricity marketization.

In October 2021, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on further deepening the market-oriented reform of on-grid electricity prices for coal-fired power generation. "In principle, the upper and lower fluctuations shall not exceed 20%."

　　A number of thermal power companies have told Shell Finance reporters that the electricity price reform can indeed bring about an increase in power generation revenue, but when the coal price rises too much, there will still be a problem that the floating electricity price cannot cover the cost.

　　Song Xiangqing told the Shell Finance reporter that the next step to solve the inversion of coal and electricity prices requires a two-pronged approach. Coal production increase and electricity price fine-tuning are implemented together.

　　In this regard, Song Xiangqing put forward several suggestions. For example, from the production side, we can strongly support coal enterprises to increase production and supply, and moderately increase coal imports; at the policy guidance level, Song Xiangqing proposed that we can vigorously support and develop clean energy, put into production high-quality power production capacity, and study electricity prices at the same time. A policy mix that is fine-tuned by industry, region and nature.

　　Regarding the uneven distribution of profits in the coal and coal-fired power industries, Ye Chun, deputy director of the Planning and Development Department of the China Electricity Council, suggested that the model of collecting special income from the oil industry could be followed by setting a lower coal price limit for the collection of special income for coal, and establishing a special income for coal. The financial system realizes the redistribution of profits among various industries.