China News Service, Beijing, July 17 (Liu Wenwen) Gao Peiyong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the Macro Situation Forum (2022 Summer Annual Meeting) hosted by the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Renmin University of China on the 17th that the economic trajectory from the first half of the year From the point of view, the most difficult period has passed, and China's economy has entered a stage of rapid restart in general.
Gao Peiyong said that in the first half of this year, China's economy showed a series of unexpected changes, which can be analyzed in three stages.
The first period is from January to early and mid-March, when China's economic indicators in all aspects increased steadily and the national economy recovered and improved, laying a solid foundation for a stable start to the first quarter.
At this stage, unexpected changes are better than expected.
The second period is from late March to mid-May. Some economic indicators such as employment and industrial production fell significantly, production and business activities were significantly hindered, the industrial chain and industrial chain circulation were not smooth, household consumption was weak, and the downward pressure on the economy suddenly increased.
The third paragraph is since late May. With the steady progress of resumption of work and production, employment and prices have generally been stable, and major economic indicators have shown a marginal improvement trend, entering the track of stabilization and recovery.
In his opinion, the first paragraph best represents the basic background of China's economic development.
The last two paragraphs are short-term changes brought about by the impact of the epidemic and the complex evolution of the international situation.
Gao Peiyong believes that it is becoming more difficult to stabilize the growth of China's economy. In the face of difficulties and challenges, it is necessary to see the impact of short-term unexpected factors, so as to climb the slope and deal with it calmly, but also to see the long-term situation and fundamentals, so as to strengthen confidence , to maintain concentration.
"From the perspective of the economic trajectory in the first half of the year, the most difficult period has passed. As the impact of the epidemic subsides, the epidemic prevention measures are more precise, a package of economic stabilization measures has been gradually implemented, and the resumption of work, production, business and the market has been fully promoted. Entering the stage of rapid restart. As long as this momentum continues, the economic operation will definitely return to a reasonable range." He said.
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