"The decline is expected." Many practitioners in the cosmetics industry told the first financial reporter.
The National Bureau of Statistics recently released the retail sales data of consumer goods from January to June 2022. In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 21,043.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%.
Among them, the total retail sales of cosmetics was 190.5 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year.
"Over the past few years, the overall momentum of this industry has been growing." The aforementioned person told reporters that (sales) declined only when the new crown epidemic first occurred in 2020, but it didn't take long for the e-commerce business to heat up. .
The reporter checked the data of the National Bureau of Statistics. In the first half of 2020, the total retail sales of cosmetics was 147.7 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year, but the retail sales in June and January alone were 32.6 billion yuan, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year.
The main reason for the "recovery" in June is the annual 618 promotion, and the brand side will take the opportunity to sell a lot.
However, in June this year, although the overall retail sales also increased, the year-on-year growth was only 8.1%.
The reporter learned from an interview that the situation of the entire industry this year is that offline business is not good, and online business is not very good.
One or two can be seen from the half-year performance reports currently announced by several leading beauty generation operators in China.
Take Beauty and Beauty as an example. The company, which operates online operations for more than 60 world-renowned brands such as Fleece, Sulwhasoo, Avène, and Schwarzkopf, is expected to experience a decline in its performance in the first half of this year.
According to the performance report, the company's net profit was about 4 million yuan to 6 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 97.08% to 98.05%, and non-net profit was deducted from about -15.72 million yuan to -13.72 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 108.51% to 109.75%.
Liren Beauty said that the pre-reduction in performance was mainly due to the severe new crown epidemic in some provinces and cities across the country, especially in Shanghai, where the company is located, in the first half of 2022.
From late March to the end of May, the company's warehousing in Shanghai and surrounding areas was unable to deliver goods in time, and the poor logistics supply chain seriously affected the company's revenue. At the same time, due to the obstruction of express delivery in Shanghai, the company was unable to deliver goods to customers in Shanghai. Cosmetics and other products have caused the company to lose its income from Shanghai during the epidemic, while the company's fixed costs such as property rental fees, warehouse storage fees, and staff wages in Shanghai have not been reduced accordingly.
Another company, Ruo Yuchen, expects a net profit of 7.3 million yuan to 9.5 million yuan, down 76.15% to 81.67% over the same period last year; deducting non-net profit of 6.85 million to 9.05 million yuan, down 70.64% to 77.78% over the same period last year.
When mentioning the reasons for the decline in performance, the company also stated that due to the macro environment at home and abroad and the impact of the new crown epidemic on logistics, some cities in my country experienced difficulties in receiving online shopping and express delivery in the second quarter, and the order return rate increased, which had a negative impact on the company's business activities. influences.
According to public data, during the 618 period, the total sales of beauty and skin care products on the three platforms of Tmall, Jingdong and Pinduoduo were 30.7 billion yuan, down about 18.9% year-on-year.
In addition to the epidemic, logistics and other reasons, the more special point this year is that many super-head anchors have been absent one after another.
According to the top 5 list of 618 anchors released by Xingtu Data and other institutions, the top 5 anchors brought a total of 10.373 billion yuan last year, and this year it was only 3.899 billion yuan.
In 618 last year, the total GMV of Wei Ya, Li Jiaqi, and Sydney alone has exceeded 7.5 billion yuan.
As for the lack of head anchors, the brand side has begun to prepare for it. In the brand side's view, "there will always be new channels".
An industry report titled "2022 Industry Semi-annual Report: Insights into China's Cosmetics Trends" judges that Tmall is still very important, and will remain one of the very important channels for brands online for a long time to come, but Ali is the most important channel for beauty brands. The role and influence have passed their peak.
In the future, the online operation of beauty brands will be more fragmented. For example, on Douyin, brands can do work including self-broadcasting, broadcast, short video, placement, distribution, and private domains. The operation within a single platform is becoming more and more Complex and increasingly refined.
Tencent WeChat, Kuaishou, Xiaohongshu, Station B, etc. are also combined according to different categories and brands.
The heads of a number of beauty companies believe that with the recovery of logistics and business in the second half of the year, sales will further pick up, but they also said that they will not take too high a rational view of sales. "After all, various uncertainties still exist. exist."
As a consumer product, beauty is still considered a promising track.
A number of brokerage research reports are optimistic about the long-term development of the cosmetics track in the future.
Among them, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities believes that the short-term impact of the epidemic will not change the long-term high prosperity trend of the cosmetics industry.