High-yield fields, thousands of layers of wheat, agricultural machinery galloping, and harvested grains returned to warehouses... On July 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that this year's total national summer grain output was 147.39 million tons, an increase of 1.434 million tons over the previous year.
And the quality is better than normal, the output of miscellaneous grains and beans has increased slightly, and the output of rapeseed has increased significantly.
The first battle of summer grain production was successful, laying the foundation for a bumper grain harvest throughout the year.
Early prediction of the summer grain harvest is also crucial to ensuring national food security.
Little is known about how much food is produced, the weather can also be used to forecast.
Why do grain yield forecasting
"Look at how big my ear of wheat is!" "There are more than 80 grains in one ear of wheat!" "The yield per mu is more than 1,500 catties!" "Another bumper harvest!"... A string of exclamations came from the mouths of Henan farmers.
According to the announcement on the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of summer grain in Henan is 38.131 million tons, the sown area is 56.838 thousand hectares, and the yield per unit area is 6708.7 kg/ha.
The output of summer grains accounts for more than 20% of the annual grain output. With a bumper harvest of summer grains, the whole year's economy has bottomed out.
Not long ago, in Wangliuzhuang Village, Guodian Town, Xiayi County, Shangqiu City, Henan Province, the local meteorological staff compiled and printed the weather information during the wheat harvest into a book and sent it to the farmer.
In the "rear", the "Sanxia" machine harvesting meteorological fine warning prompt product jointly developed by the National Early Warning Information Release Center, the Agricultural Mechanization Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Meteorological Center was launched. More than 3 million people in key provinces including Henan Province, including agricultural machinery operators and large agricultural planters, provide services.
Such an exclusive service for agricultural machinery operators is a vivid epitome of the linkage service between the meteorological department and the local government.
Beginning in December last year, the National Satellite Meteorological Center, together with the National Meteorological Center and provincial meteorological bureaus such as Henan and Shandong, have jointly formulated management regulations and technical guidelines for remote sensing monitoring of winter wheat distribution. ) The Meteorological Bureau cooperated with the division of labor to produce a distribution map of winter wheat with a spatial resolution of 16 meters, providing strong support for the 2022 summer harvest crop yield, weather forecast and other services.
According to the forecast, Henan will do the preparations for fine machine harvesting, conduct a detailed investigation of the amount of agricultural machinery and operation demand in advance, and implement the docking of wheat machine harvesting operations to villages, households, and plots. The province has completed docking 80.96 million mu, accounting for 80.96 million mu of planting. more than 95% of the area.
"The province organized 180,000 harvesters to be put into summer harvesting operations, issued 50,000 agricultural machinery cross-regional operation permits, and gave priority to the inspection and release of cross-regional agricultural machinery. According to the number of agricultural machinery and the progress of harvesting, the needs and requirements of wheat machine harvesting operations were released in a timely manner. Machinery and equipment provide dynamic information and guide the orderly flow of harvesting machinery." said Ling Zhongnan, member of the Party Group of the Henan Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and director of the Provincial Agricultural Machinery Center.
Which crops can be forecast
"I have been working on wheat for more than 40 years. I have never seen the complexity of the wheat seedlings before last winter. In the end, there were no surprises and a good harvest. The key is to scientifically fight disasters to deal with late sowing and let farmers know how to plant them; scientific field management is accurate. Guidance and let farmers know how to promote." said Zhao Guangcai, consultant of the wheat expert guidance group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and a researcher at the Institute of Crop Science, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Agricultural production is closely related to meteorological conditions.
"In the case of relatively stable crop varieties, land fertility, agricultural production management level, etc., meteorological conditions are the key factors affecting crop yield changes." Hou Yingyu, director of the Ecology and Agricultural Meteorological Office of the National Meteorological Center, introduced that the process of grain yield forecasting is practical The above is the process of dynamic monitoring and evaluation of meteorological conditions, especially the pros and cons of meteorological disasters on agricultural production and yield.
"Every year, for summer grain and oil (April, May), autumn crops and annual grain (July, August), the National Meteorological Center will release two production forecast service related products, the forecast content includes average yield, planting area and Total production." Hou Yingyu said that during the growing season of crops, objective forecasts of dynamic yields by province and by crop will be produced and distributed month by month.
When the harvest of crops is approaching, the special service of meteorological guarantee for agricultural activities will be activated, and the crop harvest suitability index will be forecast on a rolling basis.
Which crops can be forecasted?
"For example, winter wheat and rapeseed in summer crops, rice (double-cropping rice, single-cropping rice), corn (summer corn, spring corn), soybean, cotton, etc. in autumn crops." Li, deputy director of the Ecology and Agricultural Meteorological Office of the National Meteorological Center Sen told reporters that for each crop, the meteorological department will conduct a detailed analysis of it, assess favorable and unfavorable weather conditions in the entire process of agricultural production, and put forward targeted opinions and preventive measures.
"We will also carry out foreign crop yield forecasting business, mainly covering American wheat, corn, soybean, Indian rice, wheat, Brazilian soybean, corn, Argentine soybean, Australian wheat, Canadian wheat, etc." Li Sen said that some provincial and regional Meteorological departments at the city and county levels also carry out characteristic agricultural yield forecasting services based on local production conditions.
For example, Hubei meteorological, agricultural and rural departments and related colleges and universities have established three expert groups on “food security assurance”, “special crop services” and “aquaculture services”. Weather and agricultural management gave targeted suggestions; in Guizhou, the meteorological and agricultural and rural departments deepened the joint office mechanism and strengthened information interconnection; in Gansu, the Provincial Meteorological Bureau continued to deepen the pilot work of meteorological services for the corn seed industry, improve the indicator system, and build Main agrometeorological disaster risk diagnosis and assessment models.
How to Forecast Grain Yield
So, how exactly is grain production forecasted?
"In simple terms, it depends on monitoring, building models and calculations." Hou Yingyu said that it is necessary to rely on ground observation, satellite remote sensing and other means to monitor the growth of crops, but also to establish a crop growth model to fully consider the meteorological factors affecting the critical growth period. Go in, and finally give the forecast conclusion of production through calculation and other means - this is similar to forecasting the weather through the numerical weather prediction system.
In fact, the related technology of grain yield forecast has already been developed.
"In the 1980s, the meteorological department developed a crop yield meteorological forecast model based on regression statistics, and conducted research on remote sensing yield estimation; in the 1990s, the meteorological department gradually established a crop yield forecast covering the country, province, prefecture and county. Business system." Hou Yingyu told reporters that since the beginning of the 21st century, my country has carried out research on crop yield dynamic forecast technology and realized business applications.
"It is precisely by relying on these objective, quantitative and dynamic crop yield forecasts that decision-making departments and relevant management departments at all levels can grasp the dynamics of grain yield in a timely manner, formulate scientific macro-control policies, and make reasonable arrangements for allocation, storage and transportation, import and export trade, and production arrangements. Provide scientific basis." Hou Yingyu said.
After years of accumulation, the National Meteorological Center, which undertakes this business, has developed diversified crop yield forecast technologies based on mathematical statistics, agronomic parameters, crop growth simulation models, and satellite remote sensing data, and established a yield forecast business service system.
"Our forecasting method mainly uses information such as meteorological conditions during crop growth, crop growth and occurrence of agro-meteorological disasters to build a yield meteorological forecast model. At the same time, we use meteorological satellite remote sensing technology to establish a crop remote sensing growth monitoring and remote sensing yield estimation model. Hou Yingyu said that on the basis of synthesizing the forecast results of various forecast models, experts will analyze and revise the objective forecast of grain output, and come to the final forecast conclusion.
"This year, my country has used high-resolution satellite remote sensing technology to monitor the distribution of summer grains for the first time, which has solved the problem of 'inaccurate crop distribution data' faced in the previous weather forecast of grain yield." Hou Yingyu said.
The yield forecast consultation mechanism also makes crop yield forecast more accurate.
"In recent years, the accuracy rate of the country's total grain production forecast has been stable at around 99%." Li Sen introduced that the technical cooperation between meteorological departments across the country and the interconnection of relevant departments such as meteorology and agriculture will also help to continuously improve my country's crop yield forecast. Accuracy, timeliness and refinement.
(Our reporter Cui Xingyi, our correspondent Liu Yawen)