Withstanding the pressure to achieve "positive growth", how will China's economy go in the second half of the year?

　　China News Service, July 15th, Question:

　　China-Singapore Finance reporter Li Jinlei

　　On July 15, the 2022 China Economic Semi-Annual Report was released.

In the first half of the year, GDP increased by 2.5% year-on-year, and in the second quarter, GDP increased by 0.4% year-on-year.

　　Hard-won, is the evaluation of this transcript.

The economy withstood the pressure and achieved positive growth in the second quarter

　　Since the beginning of this year, the international environment has become more complex and severe, domestic epidemics have frequently spread, and the adverse impact has increased significantly. The economic development is extremely unusual, and unexpected unexpected factors have brought a serious impact. significantly increased.

　　Looking back at the first half of the year, from January to February, the economy rebounded beyond expectations, to March and April, major economic indicators declined significantly, and suffered a "cold spring", and then to May and June, the downward trend was stopped and gradually stabilized and rebounded. China's economy achieved "V". " type rebound.

　　This "V" is hard-won, and it also reflects the strong resilience of China's economy.

　　Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed China-Singapore Finance. On the whole, the rebound of the epidemic has been effectively controlled, the process of resumption of work and production has been accelerated, the backlog of demand has been released in a concentrated manner, and the policy effect has continued to play, driving the economy out of the trough.

　　In addition to the positive growth of GDP in the second quarter, the economic report card in the first half of the year has some highlights that deserve attention.

Income growth is faster than GDP growth

　　Data show that in the first half of the year, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 18,463 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.7% year-on-year; a real increase of 3.0% after deducting price factors.

The national median per capita disposable income of residents was 15,560 yuan, a nominal increase of 4.5% year-on-year.

　　The actual growth rate of the national per capita disposable income of residents was 3.0%, although it was down from the first quarter, but it was faster than the economic growth rate.

The price increase is much lower than that of Europe and the United States

　　In the first half of the year, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.7% year-on-year, within the expected target of around 3%.

　　From a monthly perspective, the CPI in April and May both rose by 2.1% year-on-year, and by 2.5% in June, a slight increase over the previous month.

The price increase in my country is significantly lower than the level of more than 8% in European and American countries.

In June, the CPI in the United States and the euro area rose by 9.1% and 8.6% year-on-year, respectively.

　　Fu Linghui, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that my country's CPI growth rate is significantly lower than that of European and American countries, mainly because my country has not adopted a strong stimulus policy of "water flooding".

In the face of international imported inflation, the domestic market has stepped up efforts to ensure stable supply and stable prices. In addition, grain production has been strengthened, and this year's summer grain harvest has achieved a bumper harvest. Summer grain production has increased by 1% over the previous year, ensuring the overall stability of the CPI.

The stability of the price situation is not only conducive to the smooth operation of the economy, but also to the improvement of people's livelihood. 

Data map: A scene of Ningbo port.

Photo by Shen Yingjun

Foreign trade growth returns to double digits in June

　　In the "troika", exports picked up more rapidly.

Among them, the growth rate of foreign trade rebounded significantly in May and June.

In May, my country's foreign trade import and export increased by 9.5% year-on-year, the growth rate was 9.4 percentage points higher than that in April, and the growth rate in June further increased to 14.3%.

　　That is to say, the growth rate of foreign trade in June returned to double digits, a major reversal.

　　Wen Bin believes that exports in June were better than expected due to technical factors such as exchange rates and prices, but the accelerated resumption of work and production in key regions in my country after the epidemic and the recovery of key supply chain nodes such as port transportation are still more critical factors. .

Consumption growth turns positive from negative in June

　　Although the consumption growth in the first half of the year was still negative, the growth rate of consumption in June has turned positive.

　　In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 21,043.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%.

Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods in April fell by 11.1% year-on-year; in May, the decline narrowed to 6.7%; in June, the decline turned to an increase, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of 0.53%.

　　Wen Bin said that during the epidemic in 2020, it took 6 months for the total retail sales of social consumer goods to turn from negative to positive; this year, it took only 3 months.

The reason for the improvement in consumption is that the consumption scene continues to be repaired, and the backlog of consumption demand during the epidemic is released in a concentrated manner.

In June, the epidemic was initially brought under control, and the offline contact service industry gradually recovered.

In addition, the effect of stabilizing consumption policy appeared.

The policy of halving the purchase tax on passenger cars has significantly boosted car consumption.

From the National Bureau of Statistics website

What is the economic trend in the second half of the year?

　　The achievements of positive growth are hard-won, but the risks and challenges facing the current economic operation cannot be ignored.

　　Fu Linghui pointed out that the risk of stagflation in the world economy is on the rise, the policies of major economies tend to be tightened, external instability and uncertainties have increased significantly, the impact of the domestic epidemic has not been completely eliminated, demand contraction and supply shocks are intertwined, structural contradictions and cyclical problems Superimposed, market entities are still difficult to operate, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery is not stable.

　　"It is challenging to achieve the expected goal of economic growth for the whole year." Fu Linghui said, but it should also be noted that the fundamentals of my country's long-term economic growth have not changed. There are many favorable conditions for recovery.

Judging from the situation in the second half of the year, with the efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the effects of various policies and measures to vigorously promote economic stabilization continue to emerge, and my country's economy is expected to continue to rebound and remain within a reasonable range.

　　Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that the focus of the policy in the second half of the year is to resume work, that is, to coordinate scientific epidemic prevention and comprehensive economic and social recovery, because most small and medium-sized enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households are willing to use sweat in exchange. Recovery of their own economy and life.

The second is to start construction. 33 measures to stabilize the economy and all aspects of infrastructure investment are the most important.

The third is precise policy.

　　Wen Bin said that with the gradual weakening of the epidemic disturbance, the process of resumption of work and production has accelerated, the backlog of demand has been released in a concentrated manner, the policy effect has continued to play, and the economic growth rate has recovered to the potential growth level.

GDP is expected to rebound to around 5% in the third quarter.

(Finish)