Since July, the central bank's 7-day reverse repurchase operations have significantly reduced, and the 3 billion reverse repurchase operations have been carried out for several consecutive trading days, which has intensified the market's expectations for the central bank's "de-leveraging". Lending facilities) may be reduced and continued.

So far, this expectation has been dashed.

　　On July 15, the central bank launched a 100 billion yuan MLF operation, the same as the amount due this month; the operating interest rate was 2.85%, the same as last month.

So far, the MLF operation has been maintained at the same amount parity for four consecutive months, and the monetary policy has continued to be in the observation period.

As MLF remains unchanged, the LPR (loan market quoted rate) is likely to remain unchanged this month.

　　A number of industry insiders interviewed by reporters said that there is still room for the LPR interest rate to be lowered in the future, especially the 5-year LPR quotation may still be moderately lowered while the MLF interest rate is stable.

Four months in a row "do nothing"

　　After the capital market crossed the half-year-end point, the central bank did not continue the rhythm of 10 billion yuan of reverse repurchase per day, and carried out 3 billion reverse repurchase operations for several consecutive trading days. funds.

In this context, the market is also quite concerned about the MLF operation this month.

　　Zhou Maohua, a macro analyst at China Everbright Bank, told reporters that the MLF equivalent parity sequel is mainly due to the fact that the recent market interest rate has remained low and the liquidity is slightly more abundant. The economic growth rate basically matches the nominal GDP growth rate, the domestic money supply is basically moderate, and the credit demand of enterprises and residents is steadily picking up; coupled with the volatile overseas markets, the central bank's policy has turned to wait-and-see in the short term.

　　Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, also said that the MLF operation in July neither increased nor decreased, mainly because the current market liquidity is still slightly above a reasonable and sufficient level, and there is no need to increase the amount of MLF to replenish water; since July The regulator is using other policy tools to guide the market interest rate to rise moderately. At the same time, from the perspective of stabilizing market expectations and helping economic recovery, the MLF operation in July has not been reduced.

　　From the perspective of the interest rate level in the capital market, the main indicator of inter-bank liquidity, DR0076, has an average monthly value of 1.72%. Although it has risen by about 9 basis points from May, it is still significantly lower than the central bank’s 7-day reverse repurchase rate (2.10%). ; Since July, the average level of DR007 has declined again compared with the same period in June, which indicates that the current market liquidity is slightly higher than a reasonable and sufficient level.

The continuation of MLF in an equal amount will help guide the return of the capital interest rate to the policy interest rate.

　　However, it should also be noted that despite the recent abundant market liquidity, it is still in the preliminary stage of economic recovery. From the perspective of stabilizing market expectations and continuing to promote credit liberalization, liquidity support is still needed.

"The central bank maintains an equal amount of hedging, which also releases the central bank to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, helping the banking system to increase support for the real economy." Zhou Maohua said.

　　In terms of operating interest rates, the MLF interest rate remained unchanged in July. Wang Qing said that this shows that the current various growth stabilization policies are in the implementation stage, the economic recovery momentum has been established, and the monetary policy is generally in the observation period. In the context of rapidly tightening monetary policy, this will also help to "take into account internal and external balance".

　　In this context, many industry insiders have analyzed that the policy interest rate is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year.

The key to stabilizing the growth of monetary policy is to give full play to the potential of various structural policy tools, guide policy development banks to implement an additional 800 billion yuan in credit scale and establish 300 billion yuan of financial instruments, supplemented by quantitative measures such as RRR cuts if necessary .

LPR is likely to remain unchanged this month

　　With the MLF operating interest rate unchanged, LPR quotations are likely to remain stable this month.

On the one hand, the MLF policy interest rate has remained unchanged this month, and the demand for physical financing has picked up. .

　　Moreover, the previous 5-year LPR quotation was cut by 15 basis points, which was a large margin. The policy side will observe the stimulating effect of this targeted interest rate cut on the property market.

From the analysis of high-frequency data in 30 cities, the property market showed signs of recovery in mid-to-late June, but the transaction volume of the property market weakened again in July.

　　Looking forward to the future, many industry insiders said that there is still room for LPR to be lowered.

Zhou Maohua said that from a trend point of view, the central bank’s RRR cuts and interest rate cuts are still in the toolbox, and there is still room for LPR interest rates to be lowered. The main reason is that in the second half of the year, the domestic economy is still under steady growth and employment pressure is still not small, and policies need to increase the weak links of the real economy and manufacturing industries. , key projects and other key emerging areas to support the accelerated recovery of consumption and investment.

"If the follow-up economic data shows that the recovery of consumption and investment is not satisfactory, it may further trigger the central bank to use RRR and interest rate reduction tools."

　　Wang Qing also said that the LPR quotation in the third quarter, especially the 5-year LPR quotation, may still be moderately lowered while the MLF interest rate is stable.

One of them is willing to fish. Since the establishment of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates in April, the cost of bank deposits has dropped significantly, which may push the quotation banks to reduce the LPR quotation spread.

　　The latest data released by the central bank shows that in June this year, the weighted average interest rate of new deposits in banks nationwide was about 2.32%, down 0.12 percentage points from April.

Considering that deposits account for about 70% of bank liabilities, this will drive down the cost of bank liabilities by a large margin.

　　In addition, Wang Qing also mentioned that the short-term impact of the fluctuation of the epidemic is obvious, but it is not sustainable. The main source of the current downward pressure on the economy is the decline in real estate.

In the next step, the policy will focus on promoting the virtuous circle of the real estate industry to launch a combination of punches. Following the "double drop" of mortgage interest rates in the second quarter, there is still room for downside in the residential mortgage loan interest rate in the third quarter, which is the key to reversing the expectations of the property market.

　　Therefore, "focusing on promoting the continuous decline of mortgage interest rates, the probability of lowering the LPR quotation for the next 5-year period is relatively high." Wang Qing said, at the same time, starting from "promoting the continued reduction of the actual loan interest rate", the quotation of 1-year LPR in the second half of the year is also possible. Down slightly.

　　As for whether to trigger the central bank to further launch incremental policy tools in the future, we also need to pay attention to the recovery of consumption and investment.

Zhou Maohua believes that from the perspective of my country's basic demand and supply conditions, domestic prices are generally moderate and controllable, and policies remain independent. The main direction is to maintain the normal competition order of the deposit market, guide banks and financial institutions to strengthen asset and liability management, tap the potential of LPR reform, and effectively reduce Comprehensive financing cost of the real economy.

　　Author: Duan Siyu