No one knows whether more Russian gas will flow to Germany after the end of maintenance on Nord Stream 1 - and if so, for how long.
The EU and Germany would therefore do well to quickly prepare for the possibility of a total delivery stop.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is now running out of imagination or courage.
So far, the "winter strategy" that she wants to present next week seems – to put it mildly – meaningless.
The CSU MEP Markus Ferber aptly speaks of a "sequence of housewife tips".
That doesn't mean these tips are wrong.
If the member states limit the room temperature in offices and authorities to a maximum of 19 degrees, that could fill a large part of the impending gas gap.
Even more would be gained if one or the other private household did the same.
The suggestion that the phase-out of nuclear power should at least be postponed is also sensible.
Alone, it's hard to believe that the Greens, who are otherwise so often refined, will find this with open ears.
One can concede that von der Leyen has done a lot since the Russian invasion of Ukraine to open up other sources of supply.
The world market hardly has any more liquefied gas and natural gas.
Nor is she to be blamed for the fact that the states – above all Germany – place their own supply above a coordinated approach at EU level.
Precisely for this, however, clear words are needed from Brussels.
The draft for the winter strategy provides as little as an answer to the question of what happens if all the savings tips are not enough.
The paper only states that EU law protects private individuals in particular from cuts.
Is that really more important than losing your job because your employer goes bankrupt because of a lack of gas?
Von der Leyen can still improve a lot here before the strategy is officially presented.