China's economic semi-annual report will reveal whether GDP growth in the second quarter is positive?

　　China News Service, July 15th:

　　China-Singapore Finance reporter Li Jinlei

　　The performance of China's economy in the first half of the year, especially the trend of GDP indicators in the second quarter, has attracted much attention at home and abroad.

　　The answer will be revealed on July 15.

The State Council Information Office is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10:00 am on July 15, 2022. Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, will introduce the operation of the national economy in the first half of 2022 and answer reporters. ask.

　　The GDP growth target for 2022 is around 5.5%, but due to factors such as the epidemic, China's economy grew by 4.8% in the first quarter.

What kind of answer will China's economy deliver in the first half of the year?

Data map: A scene of Ningbo port.

Photo by Shen Yingjun

Some indicators send positive recovery signals

　　Since entering the second quarter, due to the spread of the epidemic in many places in April, the main economic indicators have declined. In May, the epidemic prevention and control has improved, and production demand has shown positive changes, but some indicators still have a year-on-year decline.

　　At present, some economic indicators for June and the first half of the year have been announced in advance, sending positive signals.

　　In terms of foreign trade, data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first half of this year, the total value of my country's import and export of goods trade was 19.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%.

Among them, exports were 11.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%; imports were 8.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.

　　Among them, the growth rate of foreign trade rebounded significantly in May and June.

In May, my country's foreign trade imports and exports increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 9.4 percentage points higher than that in April.

　　In terms of prices, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the CPI rose by 2.5% in June, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the low base last year.

On average from January to June, the national CPI rose by 1.7% year-on-year, within the expected target of around 3%.

　　In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, the non-manufacturing business activity index, and the composite PMI output index were 50.2 percent, 54.7 percent, and 54.1 percent, respectively, 0.6, 6.9, and 5.7 percentage points higher than the previous month, and all rose to the expansion range.

Among them, in June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.2%, returning to the expansion range after three consecutive months of contraction.

　　Yuan Da, director of the General Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out at a media briefing on the economic situation in the first half of the year on July 14 that with the effective coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, the epidemic prevention and control in key regions has achieved positive results. The effects of economic stabilization policies were gradually released,

The economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter

　　On June 15, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, pointed out at a press conference that in June, with the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize growth, economic performance is expected to further improve.

　　He judged that, on the whole, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled and various measures to stabilize growth are implemented and effective, with the joint efforts of all parties, the economy is expected to achieve reasonable growth in the second quarter.

　　Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, pointed out that since June, there have been more signs of accelerated economic recovery reflected by high-frequency data. From the perspective of high-frequency indicators, the economic growth in June should be better than that in March. Therefore, the second quarter is "positive growth". should not be difficult.

　　The CICC Macro Research Report believes that since June, the national epidemic situation has stabilized, the epidemic prevention policy has been optimized and adjusted, and major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing have promoted the resumption of work and production.

Economic activities gradually improved from April to June, and the PMI composite output index rose month by month, and some economic activities not covered by monthly high-frequency data may make the GDP growth rate in the second quarter higher than the weighted monthly industrial added value and service industry production index average growth rate.

　　Yuan Da pointed out that from the perspective of economic trends, various policies to stabilize the economy are further implemented and effective, and the economy is expected to continue to maintain the momentum of recovery in the second half of the year.

Facing the impact of internal and external periodic and sudden factors, my country's economy has stabilized and rebounded in a relatively short period of time, showing the strong resilience and huge potential of my country's economy, which fully shows that the good trend of my country's sustainable and healthy economic development has not changed. The conditions of production factors supporting high-quality development have not changed, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed.

As the effectiveness of efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development continues to show, and the effects of macro policies are further released,

(Finish)