The market opened on the morning of July 12, and the main contract of hog futures exceeded 23,000 yuan / ton, up more than 3% within the day.
Just the day before, the national average price of live pigs reached 11.89 yuan/catties, a new high for the year.
All signs point to a rapid recovery in pork prices.
At the same time, some leading pig companies began to reduce their volume, and retail pig farmers also began to show obvious reluctance to sell.
In this regard, some people in the industry reminded to beware of the early arrival of the new "pig cycle".
The usual cycle trajectory of the "pig cycle" is: rising meat prices prompt pig farmers to increase the number of reproductive sows, leading to an increase in market supply, which leads to a drop in meat prices; pig farmers begin to eliminate a large number of reproductive sows , and then the supply of live pigs has turned to decrease, and the tightening of market supply has led to rising meat prices.
so back and forth.
In the past, a "pig cycle" was about 4 years. In recent years, the rhythm of the "pig cycle" has been disrupted, and the situation has become more complicated.
Some analysts pointed out that at present, pig farmers have suspended the number of sows that can reproduce, and the price of piglets has also rebounded significantly, which has brought uncertainties to the future pork supply.
According to industry insiders, changes in reproductive sows often reflect changes in industry production capacity after 10 months.
At present, large-scale pig companies are increasing the number of breeding sows, which indicates that the supply of live pigs will increase significantly after one year, which will bring new changes to the market supply.
However, some people in the industry have expressed different views on the "pig cycle" that people are wary of.
Zhang Banghui, chairman of Tianbang Foods, said recently that with the continuous expansion of large-scale pig farming, the pig cycle will become longer and longer. When 70% to 80% of domestic pigs are provided by large-scale enterprises, pig prices will stabilize. No more pig cycles.
Text/Reporter Zhang Qin