Chen Chu
In the past two or three months, track stocks represented by photovoltaics, new energy and new energy vehicles have rebounded strongly, and the net value of funds with heavy positions in these sectors has also risen all the way, especially new energy and photovoltaic themed funds, many have recovered or It is close to recovering the losses from the previous sharp decline in the market.
According to the performance statistics of the fund, it is easy to observe that the young generation of fund managers who have reaped the most profits from the rebound of the track stocks in this round are often the younger generation of fund managers, while the fund managers who are older and have a longer working experience are many of them. What is the reason for the strong rebound of round track stocks?
New and old fund managers
different investment logic
In the heart of the old generation of fund managers, value investing is deeply rooted and internalized in the heart, two of which are particularly critical: one is the sustainability of corporate performance growth, and the other is the safety margin of valuation.
They have a soft spot for blue-chip stocks with low valuations, such as home appliances, real estate, cement, coal, steel, etc. But for track stocks, although the older generation of fund managers also agree with the development trends of these industries, the track stocks The valuation is often too high, and the price-earnings ratio of fifty or sixty times makes it difficult for fund managers to make up their minds to buy, let alone heavy positions.
From the perspective of fund managers who are older or have been in the industry for a long time, the strong rebound of track stocks in this round is a bit irrational and common sense, because the valuations of many companies are very expensive, and the key is that there are no signs of performance temporarily. Track stocks, whose performance in last year's annual report and this year's first quarterly report still fell sharply, actually rebounded by more than 50% in this round. For the old generation of fund managers, this is completely speculative speculation, and even completely storytelling, concept speculation, and theme play.
The new generation of fund managers believe that new energy, new energy vehicles and photovoltaics represent the future development trend of China's economy, are undoubtedly and unavoidable investment themes, and are the "strongest voice" in the stock market.
Taking the energy storage segment as an example, old fund managers may think that most of the listed companies in energy storage may still be in the stage of storytelling, because it will take time to roll out large-scale energy storage, and whether it is pumped energy storage, Both electrochemical energy storage have their own advantages and disadvantages, and the technology needs to be continuously improved.
But perhaps the younger generation of fund managers believe that after the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, photovoltaics and energy storage must keep up. This is a golden track with extremely large market space. Many listed companies are rushing to enter this field. Now It's just staking time.
From the perspective of investment cost performance, it is also the time to pick up bargains. When the energy storage listed companies really become bigger and stronger, maybe the valuation bubble has already appeared.
In other words, the old generation of fund managers pay more attention to the "reality" of the performance growth of listed companies, while the younger generation of fund managers pay more attention to the "anticipation" of the performance growth of listed companies.
The old generation of fund managers have experienced many rounds of bull and bear markets, deeply experienced the huge lethality of the stock market crash, and know how important the safety margin of stock valuation is to the safety of investment, because many so-called track stocks, once the real system of the market When sexual risks come, the lethality of a huge drawdown is immeasurable.
For example, for a period of time at the beginning of this year, the shares of the track generally fell by more than 50%, which is a vivid case.
Different investment strategies for the track stocks are behind different investment concepts and investment styles. In many cases, it is difficult to use qualitative language to define right and wrong, right and wrong. Perhaps, time is the best answer.
Industry Fund
more and more investment opportunities
Investors can see that although individual stocks in the thematic industries such as photovoltaics, energy storage, and new energy have risen sharply in this round of rebounds, and some have even increased by nearly 200%, the increase in the Shanghai Composite Index is very limited, which may also be the future. A typical feature of the A-share market.
That is, thematic and industry-specific investment opportunities emerge in an endless stream, but there are few or no systematic opportunities in the market as a whole.
Correspondingly, it is reflected in the fund products, that is, the fund products of the broad-based index often perform in general, but the investment opportunities of industry-based and thematic funds are one after another.
This is actually closely related to the changes in the internal structure of listed companies in the A-share market. The gap between the industry prosperity of the companies is getting bigger and bigger, and even clear, because the industrial structure of the macro economy is changing rapidly.
For example, in the traditional real estate industry, under the positioning of housing and not speculating, the investment opportunities of Chinese real estate stocks mainly come from the oversold rebound or the stimulus to the real estate industry when the economic downturn occurs. The real estate stocks obviously lack the opportunity for a systematic and sustained rise. Because the golden period of this industry has passed.
More investment opportunities in the A-share market come from investment opportunities in emerging segments, such as heterojunctions in the photovoltaic field, vanadium flow batteries in the lithium battery field, and unmanned driving in the automotive field, etc.
This seemingly "fashionable" investment opportunity is essentially driven by technological change, which drives the emergence of new investment opportunities.
Therefore, the market is more of an industry-based investment opportunity. For example, there was a period of time last year in pharmaceutical stocks that rose like a rainbow. This year's lithium battery concept stocks and photovoltaic concept stocks have continued to soar recently.
There is no doubt that public funds with assets under management reaching 26 trillion yuan have a growing voice in the A-share market.
From the perspective of the fund issuance market, the proportion of industry-based fund products is increasing. In addition to industry-themed funds such as medicine, new energy, photovoltaics, and semiconductors, some fund companies have recently launched vaccine-based industry funds. Vaccines are medicines. As a branch of a large industry, it can be said that industry funds are becoming more and more "narrowed", vertical and segmented.
And the issuance of more and more sub-sector industry funds will form a capital synergy in a sub-sector. When an investment opportunity appears in a sub-industry, the funds will form a consistency in a short period of time, so that in the In a relatively short period of time, the overall valuation level of this segment has been pushed up.
This is the reason why some new energy vehicle stocks, new energy stocks and photovoltaic stocks can rise by as much as 100% or even higher in one or two months in this round of strong rebound market, because the market opportunities are structural, when a certain When investment opportunities appeared in subdivisions, many industry funds and thematic foundations rushed forward, and this did not include the positions of broad-based index funds in track stocks.
Structural opportunities and industry opportunities in the A-share market are becoming more and more dominant, which determines that the opportunities for industry funds and theme funds will become more prominent in the future.
Different investment eras present different investment strategies and investment philosophies. Industry funds focus more on emerging industries and track stocks. Most of the fund managers of these funds are the younger generation. Business and new industries are highly sensitive, as the old saying goes, the world belongs to the younger generation!