2.5%! Why did the CPI hit a new high for the year in June? Subsequent mild rise?

　　China News Service, July 9th:

　　Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics

　　Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th showed that due to factors such as the low base last year, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and a new high for the year.

CPI rise and fall chart.

from the National Bureau of Statistics

Year-on-year CPI growth expanded in June

　　According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician at the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, in June, the overall situation of my country's epidemic prevention and control was stable and improved, the supply of important livelihood commodities was sufficient, and the consumer price movement was generally stable.

　　On a year-on-year basis, the CPI rose 2.5%.

Among them, food prices rose by 2.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI increase of about 0.51 percentage points.

　　Among food, the price of fresh fruit rose by 19.0%, the price of eggs rose by 6.5%, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 3.7%, and the price of grain rose by 3.2%, which became the factors that boosted the CPI year-on-year increase.

　　Among the factors that dragged down the year-on-year increase in CPI, the price of livestock and meat fell by 4.7%, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Among them, the price of pork fell by 6.0%, which affected the CPI decline by about 0.08 percentage points.

　　"Since the price of pork bottomed out in April, the market is expected to rise further, and the phenomenon of slaughtering at the breeding end has reappeared, and hog futures have repeatedly hit new highs

," said Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank.

　　"According to estimates, in the 2.5% year-on-year CPI increase in June, the impact of last year's price changes was about 1.2 percentage points, and the impact of new price increases was about 1.3 percentage points." Dong Lijuan pointed out that the core CPI after deducting food and energy prices It increased by 1.0% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Citizens buy fresh vegetables.

Photo by Zhang Hengwei

Prices

of fresh vegetables and fruits

　　From a month-on-month perspective, the CPI was flat from a decrease of 0.2% in the previous month.

Among them, food prices fell by 1.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI to drop by about 0.30 percentage points.

　　According to Dong Lijuan, the prices of fresh vegetables, eggs, fresh fruits and aquatic products decreased by 9.2%, 5.0%, 4.5% and 1.6% respectively month-on-month due to factors such as increased supply, improved logistics and reduced demand for stockpiling; Affected by factors such as households pressing down on sales, and consumer demand stabilizing due to the epidemic, pork prices continued to rise, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month.

　　The reporter combed through the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and found that since the end of March, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises of live pigs above designated size has risen for 15 consecutive weeks.

　　On July 6, a reporter from Zhongxin Finance visited a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing and found that the price of pork belly is 19.8 yuan per catty, and pork belly is 23.8 yuan per catty.

On June 24, the price of the front and rear buttocks here is still 14.8 yuan per catty, and the pork belly is 18.8 yuan per catty.

The price of pork in a supermarket in Xicheng District, Beijing.

Photo by Xie Yiguan, a reporter from China-Singapore Finance and Economics

　　Among non-food items, domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased significantly month-on-month due to the rise in international oil prices.

In addition, with the improvement of the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, service consumption recovered in June. Air ticket and travel prices rose by 19.2% and 1.2% respectively, an increase of 15.0 and 0.8 percentage points respectively over the previous month. The price of hotel accommodation increased from A 0.7% decline last month turned into a 0.3% gain.

　　According to data from an online travel service platform, the number of summer travel bookings with Beijing as the destination increased by nearly 30% month-on-month; the overall summer travel bookings with Hainan as the destination increased by 187% month-on-month. volume increased by 234%.

CPI is expected to rise moderately in the second half of the year

　　The National Agricultural Products Wholesale Market Price Information System shows that from July 1 to July 7, the average wholesale price of pork was 26.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 16.8% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year; The price was 3.57 yuan/kg, a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6%.

　　With the recent rapid rise in the price of live pigs, relevant departments have also intensively "shot".

On July 4th and 5th, the National Development and Reform Commission made three announcements to deploy the work of ensuring supply and price stability in the live pig market.

　　"With the arrival of the flood season in July, and the cyclical rise of pork after the rise in fresh vegetable prices, there may be some price pressure on food prices. However, the National Development and Reform Commission recently reminded relevant companies to maintain a normal slaughtering rhythm and avoid blindly pressing the slaughterhouse. The off-season is approaching, and in the short term, the upward momentum of pork prices will decline, and the rise in food prices will remain moderate." Wen Bin said.

　　"Recently, the global commodity market has gradually switched from 'inflation trading' to 'recession trading', and commodity prices have fallen in stages, which will alleviate some imported inflation pressures." Wen Bin said, at the same time, with the gradual recovery of my country's overall demand, the core Inflation is expected to gradually move up from the weak range below 1% in the previous period to the historical average of 1.2%-1.5%.

　　"On the whole, it is expected that the CPI will rise moderately in the second half of the year, and there is a high probability that the CPI will exceed 3% in some months (September and December), but the annual average level is still controlled within the policy target." Wen Bin believes.

(Finish)