Xiao Chu, an undergraduate graduate of a 985 college in Beijing, is a member of the "slow employment" group.
He only started looking for a house in July, and he had no hope of "finding a satisfactory house in a short time".
Who would have thought that in just 2 days, he would rent a house with a good price/performance ratio near the subway through an intermediary platform.
"I rent it in East Shuangyushu, Zhichun Road, Haidian. The three houses are shared, and the second bedroom is 4,000 yuan/month. With bi-weekly cleaning, the community environment is good, and it is not far from the workplace." Xiaochu told Yicai that last year, a A senior student rented a second bedroom with a similar area in the same community for 4,600 yuan/month.
The epidemic is superimposed on the graduation season. From June to July this year, the national rental market has ushered in some new changes.
According to statistics from the Ministry of Education, the number of college graduates this year exceeded 10 million for the first time, and is expected to reach 10.76 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.67 million.
The scale and increment of graduates have both reached record highs, which has greatly increased the demand for the rental market in this year's graduation season.
Under the epidemic, the willingness of tenants to change rooms has weakened, the rate of new rental housing entering the market has slowed down, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the rental market has become more prominent.
Affected by this, after entering the graduation season, the rental market in many hot cities across the country showed signs of recovery.
According to the data from the Shell Research Institute, the number of newly listed houses (rental housing) in 100 cities across the country maintained a month-on-month increase of nearly 10% in May and June, and the number of new customers who showed up in June increased by more than 70% month-on-month. In the quarter, the transaction cycle of housing listings in 100 cities across the country shortened month-on-month, and the average price of newly listed properties rose slightly by 1.3% month-on-month.
However, CBN research and interviews found that factors such as the impact of the epidemic on the rent sensitivity of graduates, the inertial reduction in expectations of owners and intermediaries, the acceleration of policy rental housing in hot cities, and the continued strong supervision of market-oriented rental housing price increases in some cities, etc. Due to multiple factors, compared with the peak season of graduation in previous years, the rental market in hot cities this year is slightly less warm. In first-tier cities, like Xiaochu, it is not uncommon for landlords to take the initiative to reduce rents.
On the other hand, although some studies have shown that more graduates have returned to their hometowns for employment this year, the returning graduates are more inclined to choose the provincial capital cities and regional hotspot cities where their hometowns are located, and the leasing market in third- and fourth-tier cities and county towns continues. low temperature.
Rental housing in first-tier cities during the graduation season is "unevenly hot and cold"
"Affected by factors such as the epidemic, the landlord's expectations have been lowered this year. Compared with last year's graduation season, the rent of houses in this area is generally 400-500 yuan lower." A real estate agent I love my family told Yicai.com.
The agency said that Zhichun Road is a popular area in Haidian District. During the graduation season in previous years, the houses launched in this area are generally sold out in mid-June.
However, due to the impact of the epidemic and prevention and control policies this year, since May, the viewing volume has been much lower than the same period last year.
"Superimposed ByteDance moved from Haidian to Chaoyang at the beginning of this year, and a lot of vacant houses have been added in the area. Until the beginning of July, there are still many houses that can be moved in within 1 month after the graduation season was launched. In order to increase In terms of transaction volume, the graduation season's 'bet one pay one' activity that originally ended on June 30 is now also available, which was previously 'bet one pay three'."
"The rental market in Beijing's East Third Ring Road area is still in short supply." A real estate sales manager at a store in Jinsong Street, Maitian Real Estate also told Yicai that under the influence of the epidemic, the mentality of young rental groups is happening. Change.
In previous years, graduates rented houses, and there was a high probability of changing houses after one year, but this year, more people chose to renew their leases, which led to the lack of vacant houses for renting in the past, and the landlords planned to enter new rental houses in the market. Under the influence of the epidemic and prevention and control policies, it was too late to decorate, and the supply of rental housing dropped sharply.
On the other hand, with the arrival of the graduation season and the opening season of primary and secondary schools one after another, the group with just-in-demand rentals has always maintained a high level.
"Generally speaking, entering this year's graduation season, although the rent increases in many hot spots in Beijing are relatively moderate, they may still be higher than the tenants' expectations. For renewers, although there is no need to pay intermediary fees, such as It is not uncommon for landlords to raise prices," said the above sales manager.
In addition to the "uneven hot and cold" rental market in different areas of Beijing, the rental levels among first-tier cities also show a trend of differentiation.
Specifically, the performance of the Guangzhou rental market was relatively weak in the first quarter. The listed rent in May rose by 5.4% month-on-month to 58.8 yuan/㎡/month.
In Shanghai, the monthly rent of individual houses in May exceeded 100 yuan per square meter, ranking first in the country, with a month-on-month increase, with the month-on-month increase ranking among the top three in the country.
The overall rental market in Shenzhen continued its low temperature in the first quarter, with some areas showing signs of recovery.
According to the monitoring of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the city's residential rent was 70.0 yuan/㎡/month in May, down 0.6% from the previous month.
Rental yields also fell slightly, at 1.16 per cent.
Xiaolin, a rental agency in Longhua District, Shenzhen, told Yicai that the graduates who are currently in contact usually choose houses with a monthly rent of less than 2,000 yuan. Affected by the epidemic, in fact, the rent in Shenzhen has dropped this year, and now graduates are looking for houses. , landlords or some leasing platforms also want to seize this wave of leasing opportunities. The rent prices are relatively firm, but they have also introduced some preferential rent conditions. For example, a house with a monthly rent of 1,600 yuan will receive a discount of 600 yuan in the first month, and only 1,000 yuan. , 1300 yuan for the second month, 1500 yuan for the third month, and a total of 1000 yuan discount for the first three months.
Kobayashi said that the recent transaction volume has increased, the rent has risen slightly, and the confidence of the owners is stronger.
According to data from Zhuge Housing Research Institute, in June 2022, the market employment environment has improved, and the graduation season has led to an increase in rental demand, and the average rental price has stopped falling and rebounded. 0.01%.
Among them, the average rent in first-tier cities was 87.92 yuan/㎡/month, an increase of 1.45% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.76%; the average rent in second-tier cities was 31.69 yuan/㎡/month, a slight increase of 0.03% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 1.25%.
The number of returning homeworkers is increasing, but the rental market in non-first-tier cities remains low
Compared with first-tier cities, rents in second-tier cities are more moderate, or even fall.
The first financial survey found that in the core areas of many second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Hefei, Anhui, and Nanchang, Jiangxi, in recent months, there have been cases of landlords taking the initiative to reduce prices to alleviate the "empty window period" of houses.
"I have a rough house with three bedrooms and one living room facing the subway, which was handed over to the second landlord recently. This year, because the rental market is relatively deserted, compared with previous years, I expect to receive 500~600 yuan less in rent for this suite. Then, the second landlord rents it out. The price will also be reduced." A Ningbo landlord told reporters.
Another landlord in Shushan District, Hefei, who chose to rent the entire property, said that the college students who stayed in the last year's graduation season have now moved out, and the house has been vacant for half a month. A marked increase in number.
However, it is not obvious among the newly employed college students that some landlords say "rents are stable with some decline".
Xiaocheng is a graduate of Zhejiang University. He and a friend shared a small standard apartment 2 kilometers away from the Zijingang campus of Zhejiang University.
During the inspection, the intermediary told me that the number of visitors was much less in the graduation season this year, but the rent only dropped by about 200 yuan.
Xiaocheng said that for the first time renting a house, he has to pay the commission fee, deposit and three months' rent, which is equivalent to 5 months' rent.
And the 1,000 yuan in rental expenses that have been missed in total is only a drop in the bucket, and it cannot change the pressure of "having a debt before I work."
A survey of 2022 graduates by the Shell Research Institute shows that nearly 70% of graduates pay less than 2,000 yuan in rent per month, and more than 90% of graduates pay less than 3,000 yuan in rent per month; more than 80% of graduates will pay rent Controlled within a reasonable range of 30% of income; graduates in big cities have higher rent-to-income ratios and bear greater economic pressure.
"It is generally believed that 30% is the 'happiness dividing line' of the rent-to-income ratio. Once it exceeds the rent, it means that the rent pressure is too large." The Shell Research Institute said.
According to the "2022 Graduation Season Survey and Analysis Report" released by 58.com and Ganjizhizhao recently, first-tier cities are still the preferred cities for most graduates due to their outstanding employment opportunities, economic strength and location advantages, among which Shenzhen graduates have a net inflow. The rate reached 3.5%; at the same time, 38% of graduates chose new first-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Xi'an, Changsha, Chengdu, and Qingdao because of their proximity to home.
Compared with provincial capital cities and regional hot second-tier cities, third- and fourth-tier cities and small county towns are still limited in their attractiveness to graduate students.
Lujiang County is a small county town in the south of Hefei, Anhui Province, with a population of less than one million.
A senior local real estate salesperson told Yicai that in recent years, the demand in the local rental market has become younger, but more of them are migrant workers from rural areas, and some couples who work in urban areas and whose children go to school there .
"This year's graduation season, the local rental market has been calm. In the past two years, rental housing has accounted for about 40% of the local second-hand housing market, almost doubling from previous years. Since the beginning of this year, the vacancy rate of the local rental market is still rising."
(Intern Wang Yishi also contributed to this article)