Sino-Singapore Jingwei, July 6th (Yan Shuxin intern Chen Shiqing) Li Yu (pseudonym), a pig farmer in Guang'an City, Sichuan Province, has clearly felt the sharp rise in pig prices recently.

  "We sold a batch of big pigs a month ago. At that time, the purchase price was still 7.8 yuan per kilogram, but now it has risen to 11.5 yuan per kilogram." Li Yu said that he was ready to "take it as soon as it is ready" and put the money in his hand. 3,000 big pigs were sold one after another, without betting on secondary fattening.

  In Li Yu's view, the risk of secondary fattening is relatively high, and there is an element of gambling.

"The market is still unstable now, and the high incidence of African swine fever is coming soon. Coupled with the hot weather, big pigs are very easy to get sick."

  It is worth mentioning that industry analysts believe that the recent rapid rise in pig prices is related to irrational reluctance to sell and secondary fattening in the market.

It is reported that the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission has intervened, and plans to prevent pig prices from rising too fast by launching measures such as launching the central pork reserve.

  New latitude and longitude in the data map

Some people are busy selling pigs, some people are busy filling stalls

  Li Yu is born in the 1990s and has been raising pigs since he was a child. He also studied pig-raising-related majors during his university days.

After graduating from university, Li Yu worked in a listed pig company for four years. Later, because he wanted to start his own business, he and a friend set up an animal husbandry company in Guang'an, Sichuan in the second half of 2021, not only raising pigs, but also feed, veterinary medicine and other related businesses. Provide free technical consulting services to retail pig farmers in the same village.

  In the local area, Li Yu's pig farm is a medium-sized farm. At present, there are more than 2,000 sows that can breed and 3,000 big pigs waiting to be released.

Li Yu said that recently, he has clearly felt that the price of pigs has risen sharply.

"We sold a batch of big pigs a month ago. At that time, the purchase price was still 7.8 yuan/catties, and now it has risen to 11.5 yuan/catties."

  Li Yu introduced that at present, most of the local farmers are busy with slaughtering, and he is also ready to "take it as soon as it is ready" and sell the 3,000 big pigs in his hands one after another.

Li Yu revealed that at his farm, the cost of raising a big pig (about 230 catties) is mostly about 1,500 yuan, and some may be higher. On average, one pig can earn about 600 yuan.

  Henan pig seller Lu Tao (pseudonym) also mentioned that the purchase price of local live pigs has risen rapidly in the past two weeks, and has now risen to 11 yuan/catties, an increase of 4 yuan.

"Farmers originally expected the price to be 7-8 yuan, and they usually sold it at around 9.5 yuan or 10 yuan. Now it has suddenly risen to 11 yuan. Many people have not yet reacted, have not had time to sell, and are still waiting to see. "

  According to Lu Tao, the current cost of breeding big pigs in Henan is between 7.5-8 yuan/catties.

In this way, a big pig weighing 230 pounds can earn 690-805 yuan.

  Lu Tao said that after the rapid rise in pig prices, farmers who had empty stalls in the first half of this year began to fill up stalls and expand their breeding scale. Some farmers also bought some big pigs weighing one or two hundred kilograms, preparing for secondary fattening and waiting to raise them. It will be sold at around 400 pounds.

  In Li Yu's view, the risk of secondary fattening is relatively high, and the current market situation is still unstable, so he does not dare to gamble.

"And the high incidence of African swine fever is coming soon. Coupled with the hot weather, big pigs are very easy to get sick."

Development and Reform Commission shot!

Prevent pig prices from rising too fast

  According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 4, the national live pig price was 18.3 yuan per kilogram in late June, up 11.6% from mid-June.

Sino-Singapore Jingwei noticed that since mid-March this year, the price of live pigs has risen from 11.9 yuan per kilogram to 18.3 yuan per kilogram, an increase of about 53.8%.

  In addition, according to the latest monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the fifth week of June (the collection day was June 29), the national average price of live pigs was 18.41 yuan/kg, an increase of 10.6% over the previous week and an increase of 18.2% over the same period last year.

The price of live pigs in all 30 monitored provinces across the country has risen.

The average price of live pigs in southern China is higher at 19.65 yuan/kg; in southwest China, it is lower at 16.42 yuan/kg.

  Meat prices have also risen sharply.

Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that as of 14:00 on July 5, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 26.69 yuan/kg, an increase of 3.7% from the previous day and an increase of about 20.95 yuan/kg from June 15. 27.40%.

  The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission also paid attention to the recent rapid increase in the price of live pigs, and took prompt action, including organizing meetings of industry associations, some breeding enterprises and slaughtering enterprises to analyze the supply and demand and price situation of the live pig market; etc., to prevent the price of live pigs from rising too fast; hold a symposium with the Dalian Commodity Exchange to study and work together to ensure the stable supply and price of live pigs.

  On July 5, the WeChat official account of the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document saying that the price of live pigs has risen too fast recently when the production capacity of live pigs is generally reasonable and sufficient and the consumption of pork is not prosperous. and other irrational behavior.

The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission has worked closely with the Dalian Commodity Exchange to strengthen the joint supervision of the spot futures market, timely check for abnormal transactions, strengthen penetrating supervision, and severely crack down on the fabrication and dissemination of price increase information, hoarding, price gouging, and malicious capital speculation in accordance with the law. Violations of laws and regulations will effectively ensure the smooth operation of the live pig market.

  Sino-Singapore Jingwei noticed that after the main hog futures contract 2209 hit the daily limit on July 4, it fell in the past two trading days. On July 6, it closed down 4.71% to 21,220 yuan/ton, but it was still lower than that in mid-March. The low of 16,080 yuan / ton rose by more than 31%.

  In terms of the stock market, the A-share breeding industry index (Shenwan) closed down 2.53% on July 6 after rising for three consecutive trading days. 18 of the 22 stocks fell, including Muyuan, Tianbang Food, New Hope, Wen's Co., Ltd., New Ng Fung, etc.

  On July 6, the A-share aquaculture index (Shenwan) closed down 2.53%.

Source: Wind Screenshot

Will pig prices continue to rise?

  Referring to the reasons for the recent rapid rise in pig prices, Zhu Zengyong, chief analyst for monitoring and early warning of the whole pork industry chain of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, introduced to Sino-Singapore Jingwei that from the perspective of supply, the number of piglets in January decreased month-on-month, so that 6 months later The sales volume of commercial pigs decreased month-on-month, and at the same time, emotionally driven slaughtering, secondary fattening, and fattening to mothers also reduced the number of commercial pigs sold or led to a lag in supply. From the perspective of consumption, the epidemic prevention and control situation improved in mid-to-late June. The increase in catering consumption and group consumption boosted pork consumption demand.

  "Generally speaking, the recent rapid rise in pig prices is a short-term excessive rise caused by the marginal effect of improved supply and demand combined with market sentiment. Under normal circumstances, pig prices will rise seasonally after May, and a large short-term increase will be out of line with supply and demand. From the perspective of supply, the essential characteristics of abundant supply have not changed, so there is insufficient support for the continued rise in pig prices." Zhu Zengyong said.

  On July 4, when answering questions from investors, Muyuan Co., Ltd. also mentioned that the price of live pigs has shown a sustained and obvious recovery from the low point in April to the present. Combined with the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the duration of this pig price increase, etc. It can be roughly judged that the increase in pig prices this time is mainly due to the marginal improvement of the supply and demand relationship rather than simply driven by emotions or short-term expectations.

  The data shows that in June 2022, the price of commercial pigs of Muyuan Co., Ltd. showed an upward trend, and the average sales price of commercial pigs was 16.53 yuan/kg, an increase of 11.16% from May 2022.

  "The current price trend of live pigs is a short-term increase in excess of market supply and demand, especially in the early stage of the slaughter of big pigs and the release of reserved meat, etc., and may face a short-term correction in the later period. Overall, it is expected that before the Double Festival (Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day) Pig prices may be generally stable with some declines, and will rebound seasonally in the fourth quarter, but it is unlikely to exceed the current high." Zhu Zengyong said.

(For more reporting clues, please contact the author of this article, Yan Shuxin: yanshuxin@chinanews.com.cn) (China-Singapore Jingwei APP)

(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)

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