It's the same as it was 20 years ago: Shortly after the introduction of euro cash on New Year's Day 2002, the euro slipped below par.

The still young common currency was worth less than the dollar.

At the end of 2002 the spook was already over.

The phase of weakness began at the beginning of 2000 when the euro was only available as book money.

“Exchange rates are shaped by economic activity and monetary policy.

At that time, when the euro was introduced, the US economy was in much better shape.

The German decade, in which Germany placed itself at the forefront of the economic upswing in the euro zone, had only just begun,” says Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Deka Bank.

Archibald Preuschat

Editor in Business

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And yet the situation in which the price pair is now approaching parity again is different than it was 20 years ago.

Today there is war in Europe.

Because Kater considers the economic development in both economic areas, the euro zone as well as the USA, to be "a disappointment".

There, the Deka economists only expect an increase in economic output of 1.5 percent.

But the USA has no problem with the energy supply.

For the Deka chief economist, the sticking point: "The stress test is coming up in the fall, and that can actually be precarious."

Antje Praefcke, currency analyst at Commerzbank, sees it the same way: "The weakness of the euro is also the result of the risk aversion of market participants." At the same time, she points out that 20 years ago the euro "to a certain Mark" was seen.

"Now the different budget and economic policies within the countries of the euro zone are an additional burden." It cannot be argued away, the euro is weak, very weak.

And the dollar is strong, very strong.

This is shown by the trade-weighted dollar index, which shows the strength of the greenback against the euro and five other currencies: at around 107 points, it is at a multi-year high. On Thursday, only $ 1.0158 had to be paid for one euro and thus so little like not since 2002.

But is that justified?

The Deka chief economist says: no.

“I expect the euro-dollar exchange rate to be around parity at the end of the year, but above it in the future.

The US currency has been overvalued for years.

Based on purchasing power calculations, 1.30 dollars for one euro would be a fair value.” Praefcke also assumes parity for the currency pair, maybe a little lower.

However, she considers a euro-dollar exchange rate of 0.90 to be too high or, better yet, too low.

Isn't the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy, which has so far only been limited to announcements, also to blame?

"It would be hard to blame the ECB for this, but there are those who think the ECB should have acted more quickly to normalize its policies and if that had been the case,

the euro might fall from a higher base now.

It's hard to argue with that in hindsight,” says Adam Cole, London-based senior currency analyst at the Royal Bank of Canada.

However, Kater, Praefcke and Cole agree on one thing: the weak euro is of little use to the export-oriented German economy.

“When there is recessionary pressure, nothing is gained.

The few percent that German goods are cheaper in third countries at the moment are nice.

But what good is that if the energy costs in production increase by a significantly higher percentage?” says Praefcke.