Boris Johnson, a resignation in a country in the midst of an economic slump

• Implicated in numerous scandals, Boris Johnson finally announced that he would resign from his post as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

• A decision that comes in a nation in the grip of a violent economic crisis, even more massive than that suffered on the old continent.

• BoJo's departure could even make the situation worse.

It is well known, in the United Kingdom, it is always gray.

A sadness of the sky which is reminiscent of the economic situation of the country: the sun has long since deserted the forecasts of the City.

Aim instead: 9% inflation in May, against 5.2% in France.

While the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is counting on weak but still positive growth in the Euro Zone (1.6%) and the United States (1.2%), it would be nil among the British (0%).

The country is already at risk of recession, with the Bank of England expecting a 0.3% decline in GDP in the second quarter.

And since a misfortune never comes alone, here is that Prime Minister Boris Johnson, entangled in a heap of scandals and whose popularity rating is lower than the Channel Tunnel, has just announced this Wednesday that he would leave the power, remaining only in Downing Street the time that the conservative party, of which he has also just resigned from the presidency, finds his successor.

The final nail in the coffin?

The Covid, a scourge on the other side of the Channel

“The country is recovering with great difficulty from the coronavirus crisis, which has greatly affected the British economy and has not been well managed by BoJo”, analyzes Christian Lequesne, professor of political science.

The country has been confined for much longer than France, with in particular a

of more than three months between January and April 2021. Anne Brucher, economist and former Director General of Health at the European Commission notes: “These repeated long confinements have wrung out British public aid, which no longer has enough to do a "Whatever the cost" to protect the population in the face of rising prices, as we see in particular in France.

As a result, inflation is being hit hard.

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Added to this, as for the rest of the Old Continent, are the consequences of the war in Ukraine, indicates Anne-Sophie Alsif, Chief Economist at the Bureau of Economic Information and Forecasts: "Of course, the United Kingdom is much less dependent on Russian energy than the European Union, for example, but the impact of the war on world markets, in particular on the price of gas, is hurting the country".

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2020 the British were the ninth largest importer of natural gas and the fifth largest importer of electricity.

An addiction that is paid for in cash.

A painful Brexit

Brexit is also starting to show more and more negative effects.

According to the Center for European Reform, the kingdom's GDP has collapsed by 5.2% since leaving the European Union in January 2020. Anne-Sophie Alsif lists: "First, the country has missed the 750 billion from the European recovery plan, which has done a lot to boost the growth of the Twenty-Seven.

The recruitment crisis in the UK has also been reinforced by the absence of European foreign workers since Brexit.

“And it does not stop there, since the expert continues:” The British have deindustrialized, but they have taken advantage of their position as a hub of international trade.

But this has been tarnished since they are no longer part of the common market”.

And this downgrading between London and the countries anchored on the old continent can be seen.

“All the economic figures for the United Kingdom are worse than those of the European average,” notes Gilles Leydier, professor at the University of South Toulon-Var and specialist in Great Britain.

Agnès Alexandre-Collier, expert on British political life at the University of Burgundy and co-author of

(Collection U, 2013), concludes the encrypted drama: “The nation shows the weakest growth in the G7”.

Anne Bunner notes: “Brexit is now rather recognized as a mistake by the British people.

Still, she knows she can't go back, nor rejoin the European Union for a long time, if it ever happens.

It is the time of mourning.

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What impact for BoJo's resignation?

“The economic crisis has little to do with the current political crisis,” dismisses Gilles Leydier.

However, Boris Johnson is not all white either in this financial torpor.

“He carried out an incoherent policy, without tail or head, between liberalism and state intervention.

He promised the butter and the money for the butter, leading an economic policy full of big gaps, ”tackles Agnès Alexandre-Collier.

For her, "the conservative party will be delighted to have a leader other than BoJo, not only for its probity scandals, but also in the hope of leading a more defined economic policy".

It remains to be seen whether his resignation will make things better or worse.

Admittedly, “a clear course could make it possible to improve things”, recognizes Agnès Alexandre-Collier.

But this course, still have to be found?

“It is not only Boris Johnson, but the whole of the conservative party which is weakened, specifies Christian Lequesne.

Reuniting the party will take time”.

Same observation with Agnès Alexandre-Collier: “It is the entire conservative party that makes the big difference between a very liberal wing and a very interventionist wing.

We will have to see which leader emerges, and this, in a difficult period.

We must also not forget that it was the British who voted for the party's inconsistent program in the legislative elections in 2019, a program which the new Prime Minister is in theory required to respect until 2024 ”.

A period of harmful uncertainty

Suffice to say that things are far from settled, and that the situation could even get worse: "The economy does not like uncertainty and currently no leader is overtaking, we do not know anything about the duration that the replacement of Boris Johnson, what economic vision will the new Prime Minister have… His resignation can be a good thing for the country in the long term, not quickly,” says Gilles Leydier.

Final word for Anne Brucher: “The British have gotten themselves stuck in a funnel and know that it will take time to get out of it, with or without BoJo.

,

as they say on the other side of the Channel.

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