Wang Fangyuan
A reporter from China Securities Journal recently learned that the interest rate of some banks' 3-year time deposits is the same as that of 5-year time deposits, and a few banks' 3-year and 5-year time deposit products even have the phenomenon of "inverted" interest rates.
Experts believe that this is the performance of commercial banks' continuous adjustment of asset-liability structure.
In the medium and long term, interest rate reduction is a major trend. Savers can adjust their wealth management structure appropriately. It is recommended to pay attention to pension wealth management products and bancassurance products.
Deposit rates may continue to fall
The reporter's investigation found that the current 5-year fixed deposit rate of ICBC, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, China Construction Bank and other banks is lower than the 3-year fixed deposit rate.
According to the mobile banking of ICBC, the various 3-year time deposit products currently on sale all carry an annualized interest rate of 3.15%, while the interest rate of a 5-year time deposit product currently on sale is 2.75%.
This means that for every 10,000 yuan of time deposits deposited by a customer in ICBC, the 5-year deposit will have an annual interest difference of 40 yuan compared with the 3-year deposit.
There are also many national banks with the same 3-year time deposit rate and 5-year time deposit rate.
The China Merchants Bank App shows that the bank’s 3-year and 5-year lump sum deposit interest rates are both 2.75%.
Ping An Bank's 3-year and 5-year time deposit rates are both 3.40%.
Compared with national banks, the 5-year time deposit interest rate of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks is still higher than that of 3-year time deposit, but the difference is not large.
According to the Bank of Beijing App, the bank’s 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit interest rates are 2.90% and 3% respectively.
The Bank of Ningbo App shows that the bank's 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit interest rates are 3.1% and 3.15% respectively, a difference of only 5 BP.
According to the reporter's investigation, at the beginning of this year, the 5-year fixed deposit interest rate of various banks is generally about 15 BP higher than the 3-year fixed deposit interest rate.
"The interest rate of 3-year and 5-year time deposits is 'inverted', which reflects the bank's prediction of the future long-term interest rate trend to a certain extent." Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, pointed out that from the overall situation, bank deposit interest rates continue to exist. On the downside, there is little demand for short-term acquisition of long-term liabilities, which reduces the incentive for banks to raise long-term deposit rates.
In addition, the "inverted" deposit rate will also encourage the public to shorten the deposit period, which will help reduce the cost of bank liabilities and stimulate consumption to a certain extent.
Why can local banks keep the 5-year interest rate higher than the 3-year interest rate?
Liu Yinping, an analyst at Rong 360 Digital Technology Research Institute, said that compared with national banks, the source of deposits in local banks is not stable enough, and it is more difficult to acquire deposits than national banks. To widen the gap, higher five-year deposit rates are often set to attract savers.
Can focus on pension wealth management and other products
In the opinion of industry insiders, deposits are the "basic plate" of commercial banks' business development, and the adjustment of deposit interest rates is an important performance of commercial banks to optimize asset-liability structure and stabilize net interest margins.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, said that in the context of making profits for the real economy, regulators have guided financial institutions to further reduce the interest rate of loans to the real economy. May increase the bank's earnings.
At present, the optimization and adjustment of deposit interest rates by commercial banks has shown results.
Take Jiangyin Bank as an example. Since the second half of 2021, the bank's deposit cost has dropped significantly.
The corporate deposit interest rate in the first quarter of 2022 was 2.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 12 BP.
The bank said that this was due to the significant decline in the proportion of high-interest-paying deposits among incremental deposits in the first quarter of 2022, and restrictions on the size of structured deposits.
In the view of the bankers, the control and reduction of the cost of debts is a gradual process.
Zhangjiagang Bank said in an interview with institutional investors a few days ago that the focus of stabilizing the net interest margin is to adjust the asset structure and control the cost of liabilities, and the bank will do a good job of forward-looking and trend research.
The first is to balance the volume and price of deposits, explore and increase the proportion of low-cost deposits in multiple dimensions, and promote the growth of long-tail customers and the expansion of the customer base for salary payment on behalf of others; The scale of deposit receipts; the third is to make good use of low-cost policy funds to expand debt financing channels.
For depositors, industry insiders suggest that, in addition to time deposits, large-denomination certificates of deposit and other products, they can also pay attention to long-term government bonds, pension wealth management products, and bancassurance products.
"Currently, the annualized settlement interest rate of annuity insurance and incremental whole life insurance can reach about 3.5%, and compound interest is calculated, which is a good investment choice." Mr. Liu, a customer manager of a branch of China Merchants Bank, said.