How long has it been since your phone was replaced?

  How long has it been since you changed your phone?

Many consumers report that they haven't bought a new phone or tablet for a year or two or more.

From "new must be replaced" to "no replacement for many years", the frequency of consumers replacing consumer electronic products has dropped significantly.

It is reflected in the supply side, which is the decline in domestic consumer electronics shipments.

  Why do consumers not like to change their mobile phones?

What signal does this send to the consumer electronics industry?

  Mobile phone replacement frequency is reduced

  "I bought this mobile phone in 2019, and it has been used for two and a half years. Although the power failure is a bit fast, there is no major problem with the mobile phone as a whole, and the response speed is also good." Wang Shicheng, who works in Zhengzhou, Henan, said that the main mobile phone is As a social and browsing tool, he doesn't play games, and he doesn't have high requirements for mobile phone functions. If there is no new mobile phone that he particularly likes, he will not change it.

Unlike in previous years, when a new mobile phone was launched, there was a wave of replacements. At present, the frequency of replacement of mobile phones by domestic consumers has decreased, and a mobile phone can generally be used for 1 to 3 years.

  This trend is reflected in the production side, which is reflected in the decline in shipments in the domestic mobile phone market.

According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in May this year, the domestic mobile phone market shipped 20.805 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%.

From January to May, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 108 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 27.1%.

Data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology showed that in February this year, domestic mobile phone sales hit a record low of 14.864 million units in the past 15 months.

In contrast, for the whole year of 2021, the total shipments of mobile phones in the domestic market totaled 351 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%.

  With the popularity of 5G, the industry originally expected that 5G mobile phones would continue to sell well.

However, data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that in the first five months of this year, 5G mobile phone shipments were 86.207 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. Although it accounted for 79.7% of mobile phone shipments in the same period, the sales were far less than the previous year.

  "Post-95s" Yang Xixi introduced that she just changed to a 5G mobile phone in October last year, "I mainly like the high appearance of this mobile phone, the ceramic body and the camera hidden under the screen greatly improve the appearance of the smartphone. If you want to change it, it's better to replace it with the latest 5G mobile phone."

  In the interview, the author found that most consumers who have used mobile phones for less than one year use 5G mobile phones, while most consumers who have used mobile phones for more than two years are still using 4G mobile phones.

"4G mobile phones are also very easy to use, and I won't change mobile phones just because 5G comes out. However, when I change my mobile phone next time, I will consider choosing a 5G mobile phone." Wang Shicheng said.

  In addition to mobile phones, tablet sales also declined.

According to data released by Canalys, in the first quarter of this year, China's tablet PC shipments were 4.7 million units, down 13% year-on-year, and shipments continued to decline.

  "I bought a tablet computer in 2020, mainly for watching videos and taking notes." Zhang Chen, who is studying at a university in Guangdong, said that this tablet computer of about 2,400 yuan has been used for almost 2 years, except for the speed of power failure. It has been accelerated, and there is no stuttering phenomenon so far.

"Although this tablet is not new, it can meet my daily needs, so I have no plans to replace it for the time being."

  According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, the retail sales of communications equipment products of units above designated size were 39.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%.

Sales of consumer electronics have declined significantly this year.

  It is worth mentioning that the slowdown in the update frequency of consumer electronic products and the decline in sales are global phenomena.

In the first quarter of this year, global smartphone shipments were about 310 million units, down about 11% year-on-year.

According to data released by Canalys, global shipments of wearable wristband devices fell by 4% in the first quarter to 41.7 million units.

  Some electronic products are not attractive enough

  Why are consumer electronics sales slowing?

  "There is nothing wrong with the old mobile phone" "The new model launched by the manufacturer has no new highlights"... Many consumers said that on the one hand, the quality of consumer electronic products is relatively stable. In recent years, the quality of batteries and other components has improved significantly. Not a problem.

On the other hand, the new products launched by manufacturers are not attractive enough. Although there are some new features that are icing on the cake, they are not enough to attract consumers to replace them.

  Wang Liying, an engineer at the Information Policy Institute of the National Industrial Information Security Development Research Center, analyzed that global smartphone sales have declined due to the impact of the epidemic.

On the demand side, in the past two years, the demand for home office, distance learning, and online entertainment during the epidemic has brought about a rapid increase in the sales of consumer electronics products. Return to stability, sales decreased year-on-year.

On the supply side, since March this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, the production and transportation of the consumer electronics industry chain in many places in China have been blocked, and the shipments of consumer electronics products have declined, affecting exports.

Internationally, the epidemic has made it impossible to connect the key links of international logistics such as distribution, transportation, and warehousing in a timely and efficient manner, and the global transportation cost has increased significantly, affecting the sales of consumer electronics products produced in China in the international market. Quantity decreased.

  "What's more important is the lack of innovation in consumer electronic products. After the basic needs are met, there is no new attraction to consumers." Wang Liying analyzed that in recent years, the changes in the form of electronic products such as smartphones and tablet computers tend to stagnate. Most of them only make minor adjustments in function, lack of transformative innovation, and it is difficult to stimulate consumers' willingness to buy.

  According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to May this year, a total of 167 new mobile phone models were launched in China, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, of which 87 were 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%.

  Chen Cheng, who is engaged in data analysis, is very concerned about consumer electronic products, "I found that in recent years, tablet computers are often different from the old models in terms of screen size, shooting pixels, and memory size. Create differentiation, but the core functions have not changed. For ordinary consumers, as long as a tablet computer does not freeze and has sufficient battery life, the desire to replace it is not so strong.”

  In addition, major brands in the market have been targeting the high-end market, and product prices have gradually increased.

The data shows that the average selling price of smartphones in 2021 will increase by 10% year-on-year.

Taking domestic smartphones as an example, in recent years, the price of many new models is higher than 4,000 yuan, and the price of folding mobile phones has exceeded 10,000 yuan.

The high price has reduced consumers' willingness to change to a certain extent.

  "The consumer electronics market is saturated, and old products in the hands of users can still be used, while new product innovation is limited and the price is high, making it difficult to attract consumers to buy." Zhang Xiaorong, an expert who has been devoted to research in the field of technological innovation, analyzed that if the terminal The price/performance ratio of the product is not enough to impress consumers, and the slowdown in sales is inevitable.

  Consumers expect more innovation

  Every year, during the e-commerce promotion festivals such as "6.18", the sales of consumer electronic products often have a wave of significant growth.

During this year's "6.18" period, many consumer electronic products have been heavily promoted, attracting consumers with greater discounts, such as direct price cuts and gift vouchers, which have achieved certain results.

According to the relevant person in charge of Xiaomi, Xiaomi made efforts online and offline at the same time, and the sales of Xiaomi Home mobile phones during the "6.18" period increased by 28% year-on-year.

  But in the eyes of industry insiders, the key to breaking the game is whether manufacturers can improve the user experience and stimulate consumption through innovation.

  Wang Liying believes that consumer electronics companies should make full use of digital technology to carry out all-round, multi-angle, full-chain transformation and application of production, operation, management, marketing and other links, which is a fast channel to improve business efficiency and empower product sales.

  Industry players have recognized the importance of current consumer electronics innovation.

A person in charge of Xiaomi said that in the next five years, Xiaomi will invest more than 100 billion yuan in research and development. At the same time, it will firmly promote the reform of new retail, and stimulate the resilience and vitality of enterprises by promoting digitalization and business innovation.

OPPO said that it will continue to invest a lot of research and development resources on folding screen mobile phones in the future.

realme brought its first tablet product on June 11, and will continue to develop the AIoT (Artificial Intelligence Internet of Things) ecosystem in the future.

  Many experts suggested that manufacturing companies should actively deploy and expand other products with high growth potential.

For example, the application of AR/VR components, smart wearable devices, various devices required for smart driving, etc. may be the innovation points leading the next wave of consumer electronics industry boom.

  Despite the unsatisfactory sales volume in the first half of the year, related companies still have confidence in the market in the second half of the year.

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October, November, and December 2021, domestic smartphone shipments were 33.6 million, 35.252 million, and 33.4 million, up 28.4%, 19.2%, and 25.6% year-on-year, respectively. , is the month with the highest sales of the year.

Wang Liying analyzed that in the second half of the year, with the gradual stabilization of the epidemic, the orderly progress of resumption of work and production, and the effective policies of various localities to stimulate consumption, the entire consumer electronics market is expected to pick up with the recovery of the national economy and the release of consumption power, "However, it is necessary to To achieve the high growth as in previous years, companies still need to develop products that can bring consumers a new experience.”

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