There are still 99 days this Friday until the heating period in Germany begins on October 1st.

Then the energy demand in the apartments increases, half of which are heated with natural gas.

But it is uncertain how long the gas supplies will last: At the latest after imports from Russia were reduced to 40 percent of the previous volume along the Baltic Sea pipeline Nord Stream 1 for a week at the latest, gas is now considered a scarce commodity, as Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens ) formulated.

What is certain is that prices have already risen sharply – and that sooner or later substantial tariff increases will also affect end customers.

Jan Hauser

Editor in Business.

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When will there be price increases for end customers?

That depends on the procurement strategy of the respective energy provider and will therefore differ from company to company.

Klaus Müller, President of the Federal Network Agency, says that the gas price increases from last autumn are now being passed on.

That is an increase of 30, 50 or 80 percent.

But that should only be the beginning of the increases.

Many municipal utilities and other utilities have long-term supply contracts that they concluded years ago at lower prices.

The recent price jumps are cushioned in this way.

However, this is of little help if Russian natural gas deliveries fail to materialize and they then have to be purchased again at great expense.

There is talk in the industry that providers will make losses if the existing delivery conditions for end consumers remain in place.

For this reason, significantly higher price increases can also be expected for private customers in the coming months.

How quickly can providers demand higher prices?

For now, consumers are protected.

Minister Habeck declared the alarm level in the gas emergency plan on Thursday because the Russian gas flows are stagnating.

"Prices are already high and we have to be prepared for further increases," said the politician.

But now it remains to be seen when the price adjustment mechanism will be activated, with which utilities can pass on higher prices directly.

To do this, the Federal Network Agency has to determine a "considerable reduction in the total gas import volumes to Germany", which has not been the case so far.

Then the affected energy suppliers would have the right “along the supply chain to adjust their gas prices to their customers to an appropriate level”.

This is regulated by the Energy Supply Security Act.

Gas imports will continue to fall on July 11, when maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline has been announced, which is why the gas flow will be suspended for almost two weeks.

It is not clear whether this is sufficient for the network agency.

What does the price guarantee mean then?

Anyone who has agreed a price guarantee with their energy provider has so far been protected from increases for the promised period.

But if the price adjustment mechanism is activated, that no longer helps: Then the dealer and the supplier can pass on their purchase prices within a week - even if the contract has low tariffs set for months.

Anyone who does not have a price guarantee is not yet safe from significant increases.

How much have gas prices gone up?

In previous years, the gas price came to 20 euros per megawatt hour on the trading exchange (TTF).

Due to the surge in demand last year, energy supplies were suddenly in demand all over the world and have already driven up prices.

The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine has also caused uncertainty.

Most recently, the trading price was around 80 euros per megawatt hour, but after the Nord Stream 1 was throttled a week ago, it rose to more than 120 euros.

However, that is still less than in the early days of the Ukraine war, when the price was around 200 euros.

How much does gas consumption cost private households?

That depends on the respective consumption and the provider.

New customer tariffs are often more expensive.

An example household with a gas consumption of 20,000 kilowatt hours per year paid an average of more than 13 cents per kilowatt hour in April, as calculated by the Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW).

A doubling compared to previous years: Since 2008, the household price has been around 6 to 7 cents per kilowatt hour.

Similarly, according to the comparison portal Check24, a model household with the same gas consumption pays an average of 13.8 cents per kilowatt hour in June and thus 2752 euros per year.

This is an increase of 113 percent compared to the same month last year.

The economist Jens Südekum expects gas costs to double or even quadruple.