Zhang Ying

　　"Resilient" and "independent market" have become high-frequency words to describe the A-share market recently.

　　Since June, the A-share market has stepped out of an independent market amid the endless declines in overseas markets.

As of June 22, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index had increased by 2.53%, 6.24% and 11.32% respectively in the month.

The outstanding toughness has attracted attention.

　　All along, the resilience of A-shares has mainly come from the strong resilience of the Chinese economy and the long-term support of fundamentals.

The core of the current independent market is mainly the dislocation of the economic cycle between China and other major economies in the world.

　　At present, the international situation is turbulent, my country's social development is stable, and the economy is recovering rapidly, making China a safe haven for global capital.

Inflation in the United States is high, and monetary policy is rapidly changing from easing to tightening.

However, my country's monetary policy adheres to a stable, "me-based" policy and maintains a high degree of independence.

From the perspective of the A-share market, after the adjustment some time ago, at present, the valuation levels of some major indexes in the A-share market are significantly lower than those of the mature market, becoming a veritable valuation "depression".

　　Under the intertwining of multiple factors, the A-share market in June is a unique scenery.

Subsequently, the market will enter the second half of the year, can it continue to strengthen in the future?

Will the investment logic change?

Where are the opportunities?

It has become the focus of medium-term investment strategy discussions of major institutions.

　　The author believes that whether it is from the continuous efforts of the policy, the economic recovery momentum is obvious, or the prosperity of some industries is picking up, the growth companies with profit advantages are accelerating the development, or the A-share market has shown a steady rise, and the turnover has broken through for several consecutive days. Trillion yuan, etc., provide sufficient support for the continued strength of the market.

Under the condition that the medium and long-term investment logic of A-shares remains unchanged, China's macro economy is still expected to lead the world's major markets in the second half of the year, providing sufficient confidence for capital market investment.

　　First, China's economy is stable and improving.

In the first half of the year, the policy of stabilizing growth was implemented intensively and continued to exert force. With the continuous recovery of the economy, the economic growth rate is expected to pick up steps. Some institutions predict that the economic growth rate in the second half of this year is expected to rebound to about 5.5%.

　　Second, incremental funds will accelerate entry.

As the proportion of domestic residents' wealth allocated to equity assets continues to increase, the pace of wealth entering the market has accelerated, and the net value of funds held has accelerated.

In addition, the current insurance capital position is at a historically low level, and some analysts predict that in the second half of the year, it may re-raise its position to the historical average level, corresponding to a net inflow of about 100 billion yuan.

At the same time, high-quality assets continue to be increased by domestic and foreign funds. Since June, northbound funds have returned to A shares. With reference to the inflow rate in 2021, the institution expects that the net inflow of northbound funds will be about 200 billion yuan in the second half of the year.

　　In addition, the left-hand new energy and the right-hand high growth are unanimously recommended by the industry as an important configuration direction in the second half of the year.

In the context of abundant liquidity, along with the launch of semi-annual report performance, high-growth stocks that can continue to deliver performance will undoubtedly become a scarce resource.

In addition, the development of new energy is an inevitable trend to achieve sustainable development, and relevant favorable policies are frequently issued. Analysts generally believe that the new energy industry chain and the new energy vehicle industry chain contain huge investment opportunities.

　　"Perseverance, hard work and perseverance".

In the face of various complex changes, the resilience of the A-share market is increasing.

Under the condition that the economic market is stable and improving, the foundation for the operation of China's capital market has also been consolidated, and high-quality development will surely be ushered in.

(Securities Daily)