Tencent reduced its holdings of New Oriental Online and cashed out over HK$700 million, and the popularity of live broadcasts and goods remained the focus of valuation
Our reporter Xie Ruolin
There are many popular people.
After the "return", the stock price of New Oriental Online soared rapidly in the short term, and thus encountered a lot of criticism.
At the same time, some institutions downgraded the company's rating; and the current stock price of New Oriental Online is also facing greater selling pressure.
On the evening of June 20, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange disclosed that Tencent Holdings (hereinafter referred to as "Tencent") sold 74.6039 million shares of New Oriental Online from June 15 to June 16, and the shareholding ratio dropped from 9.04% to 1.58 after the reduction. %.
Sun Yang, a researcher at the Xingtu Financial Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from Securities Daily that the stock price of New Oriental Online has risen by more than 7 times at its highest recently, and Tencent is reducing its holdings on rallies.
In addition, after New Oriental Online transforms into live e-commerce, the prospects are still difficult to say.
As of the close on June 20, New Oriental Online has fallen by 32.08% in a single day.
Despite this, the company's stock price has risen by 358.92% since the beginning of this month.
Tencent once lost 36%
In just half a month, the number of fans of the Douyin account "Dongfang Selection", the official live broadcast room of New Oriental Online, has increased by more than 16 million.
According to data from the third-party platform Grey Dolphin, on June 19, the viewing volume of Oriental Selection reached 52.323 million, the peak number was 464,000, the average number of online users was 154,000, and the GMV (gross merchandise transaction) reached 44.0595 million yuan, ranking on the day of Douyin. The top spot on the live streaming list.
According to the latest data, Douyin has more than 600 million daily active users. In other words, about one out of every 12 Douyin users has entered the Oriental Selection Live Room.
From "Little Transparent" to Douyin's first brother, the speed of Dongfang's selection of "breaking the circle" is astonishing.
At the same time, it is also amazing that the secondary market is sought after. Since June 6, the stock price of New Oriental Online has soared like a rocket. Until the intraday high of 33.15 Hong Kong dollars on June 16, the company's stock price has risen by 795.95%.
According to the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Tencent also reduced its holdings of New Oriental Online during this period.
Specifically, 35.6125 million shares were sold on June 15, and 38.9914 million shares were sold on June 16.
According to the data, the average price of Tencent’s two reductions was HK$9.6168 and HK$9.6755 respectively, that is, Tencent’s two reductions were HK$342 million and HK$377 million, totaling HK$719 million.
"Although it is impossible to see the way for Tencent to reduce its holdings from the disclosure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, it is clear that Tencent has missed the high point of this reduction." A brokerage analyst told reporters.
In fact, Tencent has held shares in the company since its Series A financing round in 2016, even when its share price fell to HK$2.84.
According to public information, Tencent’s total investment in New Oriental Online amounted to US$50.8772 million (about HK$399 million), and the investment cost was US$0.5627 (about HK$4.42) per share, which means that Tencent’s investment in New Oriental Online had a floating loss of 36%.
There are exits and advancements
Today, in the face of aggressive stock prices, some institutions have taken the lead in adjusting the rating of New Oriental Online.
On June 17, China Merchants Securities downgraded New Oriental Online to neutral.
China Merchants Securities Research Report believes that the current valuation of New Oriental Online needs to correspond to a daily average GMV of nearly 30 million yuan and a price-earnings ratio of 35 times for the live streaming business. This extrapolation assumption is too radical, so the rating is downgraded to neutral.
On June 19, the CITIC Securities Research Report listed the current "risk factors" of New Oriental Online: the company's stock price has risen more from the bottom due to the inflection point in the business in the short term, and there is a risk of falling back; the company's business inflection point is beginning to appear, and it will take time to prove stability; At present, the company's market attention is very high, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of daily GMV fluctuations on the short-term stock price; the company's supply chain management capabilities still need to be accumulated and verified; the risk of declining live e-commerce business traffic or rising traffic costs; loss of anchor team leads to traffic risk of loss, etc.
In this context, some foreign institutions reduced their holdings on rallies.
Wind information data shows that since June 14, HSBC, Interactive Brokers, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and other institutions have successively reduced their holdings of New Oriental Online stocks.
But at the same time, Chinese-funded institutions such as Futu Securities and Guotai Junan also entered the market to increase their holdings.
"Compared with online education, the imagination of live e-commerce is limited." Sun Yang said, this is also the main reason for the criticism after its stock price soared.
"The stock price of New Oriental Online has risen too fast, which has caused market concerns." According to the aforementioned securities analysts, the self-operated business of Oriental Selection has just started, and its follow-up performance remains to be seen. The stakers are undoubtedly optimistic about the live streaming business of New Oriental Online and the self-operated brands selected by Oriental for a long time.
The right time, the right place and the right people have created the Oriental Selection. The CITIC Securities Research Report believes that the Oriental Selection will start selling some of its own brand products from April 2022. We estimate that its own brand sales currently account for about 6% to 8%.
Private brands have better profitability, and the increase in their proportion will help improve the company's overall profitability.
"We generally believe that Dongfang Selection has basically established a turning point in its operation and has the ability to further expand on a large scale." (Securities Daily)