The Banque de France on Tuesday lowered its forecast for French growth to 2.3% in 2022, against a range between 2.8% and 3.4% published in mid-March, and raised its inflation forecast to 5 .6%, due to the “shocks” hitting the economy.

"Growth would be affected by the current level of inflation which weighs on purchasing power, and by the deterioration of the international economic situation as well as by the very uncertain geopolitical context which is degrading the confidence of all economic agents", estimates the French central bank in its new economic projections.

The increasingly weak momentum of the year 2021

The "current shocks" would persist next year to some extent, causing the economy to slow further, with growth of 1.2%, before activity picks up more vigorously in 2024, domestic product gross (GDP) progressing by 1.7%, still provides the Banque de France.

But the rise in GDP this year "is essentially due to the momentum" brought by the strong growth of last year (7%), she specifies, while "the quarters of the current year would contribute little to growth", a sign of the slowdown in the economy, which even saw GDP fall by 0.2% in the first quarter compared to the last quarter of 2021.

On the inflation side, the Banque de France forecasts an acceleration to 5.6% on average this year of the HICP index, which serves as a basis for comparison between European countries, before slowing to 3.3% in 2023 then 1.9% in 2024. "Inflation will be higher, wider and (will last) longer", spreading in particular to services after focusing on energy and food, sums up the French central bank .

The war in Ukraine would cost 2 points of GDP

In total, the war in Ukraine and its consequences would lead to a loss of 2 points of GDP between 2022 and 2024 in France, as well as a rise of 3.5 points in inflation.

The French central bank, however, predicts an “unfavorable” scenario, marked by a continuation of the conflict in Ukraine next year with its current intensity and a hardening of tensions on energy prices.

Under these conditions, growth would be only 1.5% this year and GDP would even decline by 1.3% in 2023, with a recession "which would start as early as 2022, even if this would not be reflected in GDP" annual.

Inflation would reach 6.1% this year, then 7% in 2023, before slowing down sharply to 0.7% in 2024.

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  • Economy

  • GDP

  • Emmanuel Macron

  • War in Ukraine

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