Affected by the turmoil in the global energy market, since the beginning of this year, my country's imports of energy products have shown a "decrease in volume and increase in price".
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in the first five months of this year, domestic imports of coal and lignite totaled 95.955 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. , down 1.7% year-on-year, and the cumulative total amount reached 967.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.0%.
In addition, in the first five months, China imported a total of 449.11 billion tons of natural gas, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, and the cumulative total amount reached 171.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.5%; refined oil was 9.982 million tons, a decrease of 3.8%, and the cumulative total amount reached 51.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. An increase of 33.5%.
The peak of electricity consumption in summer is approaching, and energy products involve social production and life. Can "quantity" and "price" be guaranteed?
What implications does this have for my country's energy transition?
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told Yicai that the current policy has made significant efforts to stabilize coal prices and increase production. In addition, the coal power industry is dominated by state-owned enterprises. Therefore, from a macro perspective, my country's energy security relatively controllable.
"What should be paid attention to is structural security. In the short and medium term, it is manifested in how to replace oil, which may require increasing reserves and increasing upstream investment. The long-term problem is that the replacement of fossil energy by new energy requires consideration of the stability of its energy supply system. "
Energy supply and stable prices have better conditions
Rich coal is one of the characteristics of my country's energy endowment, and coal is also the main means of ensuring energy supply in my country.
Although my country's coal supply has long been dominated by domestic imports and supplemented by imports, the annual import volume is about 200 million to 300 million tons, accounting for only 5% to 7% of the total consumption.
However, due to the high degree of market-oriented pricing of domestic coal, the price of imported coal plays a certain supporting role for the bottom of the coal price range in the domestic market.
According to statistics from Yang Jing, an associate researcher at the Energy Economics and Development Strategy Research Center of the Energy Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, in the first five months of this year, the average coal import price in my country was as high as 1,018 yuan/ton, which was 2.1 times the average from 2015 to 2020. Domestic coal price stabilization faces great challenges.
The "CECI (China Electric Coal Purchase Price Index) Weekly Report" released by the China Electricity Council on June 20 shows that the coal mines in the main production areas continue to maintain the status of immediate production and sales as a whole. However, there is no significant improvement in the tight coal supply, the long-term coal supply is tight, the sales volume to the market is insufficient, and the coal price is running at a high level.
The latest CECI coastal index 5500 and 5000 kcal thermal coal comprehensive prices are 871 yuan/ton and 793 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively from the previous issue. The spot transaction price is 1336 yuan/ton, 1156 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous issue.
Internationally, the unit price of CECI import index onshore comprehensive standard coal was 1,649 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan/ton from the previous issue, a month-on-month increase of 3.5%.
Supply in the international thermal coal market is still tight, while demand continues to increase, and prices remain high as a whole.
At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office a few days ago, Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department, said that the production of raw coal, crude oil and natural gas continued to grow in May, which is conducive to the stability of energy prices and also drives The decline in the increase in PPI.
Despite the increasing external pressure, domestic efforts to ensure supply and stabilize prices have continued to increase, and energy supply is basically stable.
Fu Linghui said that from the perspective of energy consumption structure, there is a certain degree of dependence on oil and natural gas, but the main body of China's energy consumption is still coal. Domestic coal reserves are relatively abundant and production capacity is relatively stable.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic coal production has maintained rapid growth. In May, the output of raw coal increased by more than 10%, and the increase in coal prices is also falling.
China has also made positive progress in the diversification of energy imports, the development of new energy has also maintained a rapid momentum, and clean energy power generation achieved double-digit growth in May, all of which are conducive to ensuring stable energy prices.
"Although affected by international factors, the prices of some energy products have risen, but the increase is significantly lower than the international level, and there are better conditions for energy supply and stable prices." Fu Linghui said.
In order to ensure the bottom line during the peak summer season, various departments are continuing to increase the work of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices.
On June 20, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document stating that local development and reform departments, together with market supervision and other departments, formed an investigation team to conduct a comprehensive investigation of the implementation of coal price regulation and supervision policies.
The investigation team took the re-ignited coal power plant procurement situation in May as the breakthrough point, comprehensively reviewed the thermal coal procurement contracts, consulted the contracts and invoices of the corresponding coal production and distribution enterprises, and cross-checked the transaction vouchers of coal and power enterprises. Form investigation conclusions.
From the feedback of some survey results, it has been verified that the coal sales price of some enterprises exceeds the reasonable range.
At present, the pull-net investigation is still in progress.
The impact of international energy turmoil
Affected by geopolitical and other factors, the global energy market continues to fluctuate. How to deal with the multiple impacts caused by high international energy prices and ensure my country's energy security has become a topic of social concern.
The China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) recently released the "China Macroeconomic Special Report" that the energy market disturbance caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has a certain impact on my country's energy security and economic development.
For example, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects energy prices and thus increases my country's energy import costs.
Rising energy prices have resulted in higher production costs in various sectors, with the two most affected sectors being the oil refining and gas industries.
In addition, transportation, mining, chemicals and other industries are also significantly affected.
At the same time, similar to other economies, rising energy prices will also spread to residents through the economic structure.
In addition to the increase in gasoline consumption, price changes caused by rising oil prices, such as food, chemicals, gas, and transportation, will also increase residents' spending.
"In the short term, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on energy prices still exists, but in the medium and long term, oil prices are currently at a relatively high point and will tend to decline in the future." Co-director of the Economic Research Institute of Renmin University of China, China Chengxin Group Chairman Mao Zhenhua proposed that to ensure my country's energy security, we can start from five aspects: first, adjust the domestic energy consumption structure and reduce dependence on traditional fossil energy; second, adjust the domestic energy production structure, so as to consider multiple lines; third , to further study and improve the energy reserve mechanism; fourth, to conduct serious research and appropriate adjustments to the energy import strategy;
In terms of oil and gas prices, Wang Zhen, president of the Energy Economics Research Institute of CNOOC, believes that considering factors such as economic recovery after the epidemic, international traffic recovery, and geopolitical slowdown, oil prices will likely fall around 2023, but they will remain at 90%. Highs around the dollar/barrel.
Supply and demand in the natural gas market will remain tight until 2025, when new natural gas infrastructure is launched, after which supply and demand conditions will ease.
Regarding the issue of energy security, Wang Zhen said that it is necessary to continue to promote the growth rate of oil and gas production and improve my country's ability to guarantee energy security.
At the same time, speed up the green and low-carbon transition, coordinate energy transition and energy security.
In addition, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of a unified national market, stimulate the vitality of the market, promote the innovation of business models and business models, and promote technological innovation.Keywords: