China News Service, June 21. According to Bloomberg News, economists led by Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, wrote in a report to clients on the 20th that the risk of a recession in the United States has increased, with a cumulative two-year probability of 48%, and downgraded. The U.S. GDP growth forecast for the third quarter was 1.75%.
“We are now seeing a higher risk of recession and a much earlier recession,” wrote Goldman Sachs economist Hatzius, “and we are increasingly concerned that if energy prices rise further, even with a sharp slowdown in economic activity, The Fed will also feel the need for a strong response to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations."
It is understood that Goldman Sachs previously predicted that the cumulative probability of a recession in the United States in the next two years is 35%.
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